My impression is that the Bush 2000 "compassionate conservative" campaign did reasonably well with Hispanics and the young. (The Republicans didn't win either group, but they performed at or above historic norms.) I also specifically remember a news article about the campaign's outreach to Michigan's entrepreneurial Arab community.
By 2004, my impression is that both groups had moved sharply away from Bush, while Bush picked up support from the elderly "The ragheads hate us for our freedom" crowd.
And 2006-08, was the climax when Gordon Smith, Norm Coleman and Lincoln Chafee, moderate males were def in the Senate. And two more bolted in 2010 Judd Gregg and Vonovich. It was only then when moderate independent voters were firmly in the Dem camp.
