2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions (user search)
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Author Topic: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions  (Read 53088 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #25 on: August 07, 2015, 10:50:22 AM »
« edited: August 07, 2015, 10:53:32 AM by OC »
New York express had the right idea

AZ we dont know how competetive this race will be
CO Lean D
FL LeanD
IL Lean D
NV tossup
NH Lean R until someone jumps in
NC tossup
OH tossup-With Strickland in
Pa hard to put rating on this; but Sestak is underperforming, but can be considered a tossup
WI Lean D

Its hard to predict how many seats Dems will net, but Senate will flip as long as Clinton wins
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #26 on: August 12, 2015, 08:11:13 AM »
L GOP: AZ, NC, IN & NH
LDem IL, WI, CO &FL
Tossups NV, OH, Pa & MO

Senate will flip should Dems win WH
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #27 on: August 12, 2015, 02:30:03 PM »
Nice ratings but Toomey & Portman & NV arent safe. But I can live with Sen Kander.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #28 on: August 13, 2015, 01:33:55 PM »
Tossup
Pa& NV( potentially LD);MO (Kander would be icing on cake)

Leaning
IL, WI & FL flips to D's

DEMS win 51 seats Kander; Sestak & CCM win
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #29 on: August 15, 2015, 11:41:41 AM »
« Edited: August 15, 2015, 11:49:16 AM by OC »
MO,FL,Pa are definately tossups now
While WI, IL, FL flips as Dems can secure 50 or 51 votes needed for senate control.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #30 on: August 22, 2015, 10:42:19 AM »
Kander, Strickland, Kirkpatrick & Sestak can all be elected this cycle. Ayotte seems entrenched.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #31 on: August 22, 2015, 11:19:38 AM »
But Hassan is running right now for reelection. We have good chances to defeat Portman, Toomey & Blunt.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #32 on: August 23, 2015, 07:29:36 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2015, 07:56:15 AM by OC »
Ayotte isnt make or break the Senate right now. Dems are more focused on Portman, Toomey & Blunt; as well as Kirk & johnson. Dems have a celebrity candidate in Strickland.

The are all toast if Trump, rather than Jeb is nominee.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2015, 11:20:07 AM »
« Edited: September 06, 2015, 11:25:41 AM by OC »
The state to watch now is MO; its a game changer like FL. Chris Koster may def Kinder or Hanaway; giving Dems their majority

Also the K factor is on ballot; and MO is only a R state at fed level. Dems keep getting reelected statewide

Pa is leaning GOP right now but Kate McGinty is raking in cash right now; Dems have to win Pa anyways. So; NH or Pa still can go either way.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #34 on: September 27, 2015, 11:05:28 AM »
Mizz, OH, CO & NV are vulnerable; IN like MO are wildcards

Lean Dem takeovèrs IL & WI

Solid D
Ct, WA, Ca

Solid GOP
NC & AZ
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #35 on: September 27, 2015, 03:21:11 PM »
Portman is entrenched but the fact is; Strickland has been leading in polls thus far QU has Portman down by 3 pts.

It is workable with others as well as Toomey & Kirk & Johnson.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #36 on: October 01, 2015, 03:02:37 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2015, 03:07:00 PM by OC »
Dem
FL, WI, IL & NV
Tossup
Co & OH
potential competetive but LR
Az, NC, MO & Pa


OH isnt LR, Hilary and Strickland continues to poll well in OH. AZ & OH can come Dems way.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #37 on: October 05, 2015, 03:47:01 PM »
Tossup NH,OH, FL; NV
LD IL, WI &:CO
LR Pa
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #38 on: October 06, 2015, 03:17:45 AM »
I think Hassan having built up a resume as gov has an equal chance of besting Ayotte. Ayotte isnt Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins. But, Collins may be the last of her kind along with SMC of WVa.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #39 on: October 18, 2015, 06:33:10 AM »
I agree with Nyvin ratings but FL and may go GOP and OH will eventually be a tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #40 on: October 18, 2015, 08:13:43 AM »
No, just going with my instinct of Ds net 5 seats and have 50/51 senators
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #41 on: October 21, 2015, 01:52:03 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2015, 02:16:39 PM by OC »
Lean D
NH, CO, WI& IL

Tossup
OH, Pa & NV, FL

Lean R
AZ, MO & IN
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #42 on: October 23, 2015, 11:28:11 PM »
Dems should win
OH, NH, WI, IL & Pa

FL may tilt GOP to Grayson

50-52 Dems and FL will go Dem if Murphy nominee
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #43 on: October 25, 2015, 03:18:40 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2015, 03:21:18 AM by OC »
FL is Lean D, Sabato and Stuart Rothenberg have OH & Pa as leaning R which isnt correct.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #44 on: November 24, 2015, 07:16:54 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2015, 07:19:05 PM by OC »
D Kirk, Johnson, Ayotte, Bennet, and FL open

Tossup Toomey, NV open

Tossup/ LR Portman

NH, IL, WI, Pa, NV, CO go Dem for 50D

While FL or OH will give Dems 51
Bellweather is Pat Toomey

50/51 Dems with Prez Clinton


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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #45 on: December 10, 2015, 08:51:43 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2015, 08:54:20 AM by OC »
TILT Likely Dem
WI, IL &  CO

TILT Leans Dem
NV, NH & FL

TOSSUP/ Tilt R
Pa & OH

TILT R
AZ, NC & IN

Dems should have 50 senators with def of Ayotte and open seat in FL
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #46 on: December 12, 2015, 01:31:55 PM »
Pat Toomey is overrated. If Trump or Cruz are the nominees.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #47 on: December 12, 2015, 04:46:41 PM »
IL, WI, CO & NH are lean D and NV & FL are tossup. While Pa leans GOP, Katie McGinty can unseat Toomey for a 51/49 senate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #48 on: December 20, 2015, 05:43:44 PM »
AZ is going opposite of Ca, NM, NV, CO & OR.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,780
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #49 on: December 25, 2015, 01:25:43 AM »
« Edited: December 25, 2015, 01:30:15 AM by OC »
Ayotte is the same moderate as Susan Collins, but Collins is unbeatable than Ayotte due to the fact that Collins in an entrenched incumbant & she voted as a tag team with Olympia Snowe  until she retired.  All three moderates King included voted to fund planned parenthood, which Ayotte voted against

Bennet isnt losing due to the fact planned parenthood, which is in the center of Colorado, and McConnell put GoP on record defunding it along with Cruz, in repeal of Obamacare.
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