Bold Predictions for the Next Few Cycles

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 Dems win Senate majority 51-49 OH, PA, FL, WI go blue and presidency
Govs: Mnt and MO red, while NC go blue


2018 Dems lose ND nd MO senate and Cain replaces Collins and Titus replaces Heller who decides to run for gov

IL, OH, Ma and MD go Dem blue in govs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

-2016 is the year that Pennsylvania goes red in a Presidential Election- doing so while Virginia is blue.

I don't know why, but my gut feeling tells me so, too.


Nope, Toomey will be ousted, and Dems will have a good convention.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 - Democrats take back the Senate, winning NH, PA, OH, IL, WI , maybe IA if Grassley dies or retires or something.  

Hillary wins the Presidency with a large Electoral College margin, solidifying the theory that the GOP is becoming uncompetitive for the White House.   Hopefully Breyer and Ginsburg retire in 2017 or 2018.    

Hillary makes for a better fit with the public for Democrats to win seats in the House.  Losing votes in city centers but making big gains in smaller towns and suburbs, basically spreading the Democrat vote out geographically, which I think is the primary problem the Democrats face in the House elections

2018 - the Democrats almost inevitably will face loses in the Senate, maybe losing the majority.    The good part though is a lot of governor races will become competitive and the Democrats might make real good gains there similar to how the GOP did in 1986.    That will make it much easier on them for redistricting in 2020.   IL Tom Dart or Madigan, MM, MD, MA and OH Tim Ryan gov elections.  Senate, Cain replaces Collins and Titus replaces Heller, Dem lose ND and MO and Mnt.

2020 - Who the heck knows,  I'd be slightly willing to bet Hillary wins reelection though, barring some crazy unforeseen events.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's still only a 289 - 249 EC win....hardly what I'd call a "comfortable victory"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, it is too early to say whether the Dems will net the senate, anything can happen. Dems only need 4 seats, not impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That year, Mitt Romney ran for president, and was a disappointment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That year, Mitt Romney ran for president, and was a disappointment.

Nah, Romney didn't have to do anything with that. Republicans could have won MT, ND, MO and IN easily (Romney won those states), but they didn't because they proved once again how stupid they are. Same could happen to the Dems in 2016. 

That's why Harry Reid retired, he was a drag as Democratic leader.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reid really wasted Democratic donors on the 2014 races. Reid also was too close to Wallstreet and crafted the CROMNIBUS. Schumer will stand on principal and do what's best for the party and allow Dems to chose the best candidates to win, not chose them like Reid did. Like Donna Edwards being the Democratic nominee in MD, not Van Hollen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

5 new females will replace Heinekamp and McCaskill in the nxt couple of election cycles. Titus and Mastro-Cortez replaces Reid and Heller, Collins opts for run for gov, Cain becomes senator, and Donna Edwards and Duckworth are elected senators.

Besides that, Toomey is defeated in 2016, for the tipping point state, and will give Democrats control of the United States Senate. Menendez is outsted and replaced by a Democrat and dems win NJ gov and lose VA gov in 2017.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here's a prediction (though I don't think it will be all that bold): Hillary's coat tails will be overrated.

There wont be the Hillary coattails that Obama had in 2008 and 2012.

She is more dependent on voters who usually vote GOP, especially GOP women, making ticket slitting ore likely in 2016, than in 2012. Obama drove turnout very high among people who were committed liberals in down ticket races. That coalition will be weaker in 2012 and there will be more ticket splitters

I can see Ayotte winning reelection easily with Hillary carrying NH. I think Portman, Toomey and the FL-GOP candidate can all win. IL and WI are the seats the GOP will likely lose.

The Dems will capture the Senate again in 2016,  netting 4 seats is a real possibility.  And Walker or Jeb are having the same problems as Romney did, losing in states like OH, PA, WI and IL.  The most likely scenario is Toomey surviving and Dems winning FL.

Once the QU polls that skews GOP samplse like they had Cory Gardner winning by 10 and actually winning by 3 skewed polls, and other pollsters come out, we will see what races we do have that are competetive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not even close, GOP ran McCain and Romney twice, and Bushes seem to manage to run for president.

Clinton is the star, but Jeb and Walker are running behind.