Nevada Senate 2024 - Brown vs Marchant

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://law.unlv.edu/faculty/governor-brian-sandoval

Sandoval is President of UNLV he already declined to run in 22 no he has no plans to run for office ever again,, this is UNLV Law school

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

While... *ahem*... many clearly overestimated Nevada's Republican trend, they weren’t so much wrong about Cortez Masto being the most vulnerable Democratic Senator this year. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that this may be the most promising GOP pick-up opportunity in the Senate after WV, OH, and MT.

You guys crack me up that you are gonna get 4/5 Senate seats with 4.2 unemployment, no you guys aren't if didn't happen in 22 it's not gonna happen in 24 Manchin and Tester won in 2012 when Romney easily won WVA and MT and Brown, Manchin and Tester won in 2018 when Ds lost IN, FL, ND and MO

Just a note we're gonna win the PVI in a Prez yr we always do a 51(49 Eday is 218/217 H and 51(50 Senate losing only WV but FL is a battlegrounds Trump is losing to Biden we don't know whom is running against Scott but we have a wave insurance candidates in John Love in TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brian Sandoval

SCARY!

Republicans have begged Sandoval to run every Senate election since it least 2016, he has never shown any interest. He seems happy in his current position as President of UNR.

He is Prez and Dean of UNLV law school and doesn't want any part of a Trump party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

This. Rosen isn't going to beat her 2018 margin no matter who her opponent is.

Yup, CCM had a race decided by less than a point and she's WAY more popular than Rosen. Not to mention she too ran against a vocal election denier who tied himself to Trump.

Lol Biden is leading Trump by 8 in the NV polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is leading by 8 pts in NV over Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter whom runs now Laxakt isn't on the ballot Trump is down 8 in NV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They polled Laxalt and he's not in the race and Trump isn't plus 8 in NV if Laxalt isn't running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rosen will easily win, Gallego and Tester helps poor people unlike R Vets

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After that Affirmative Action case Trump Polls declined in NV he was ahead by 8 and now he is down by 3 NV is safe D even More than before without Laxalt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt isn't running just like Johnson isn't running in WI and DeWine isn't on the ballot in OH  OH, MT, MI, PA, NV, AZ are Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t think it’s guaranteed that Rosen will "outperform the polls" again in 2024. Obviously we should be careful not to overestimate NV's R trend again, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is the most vulnerable D-held seat after OH/WV/MT and that it’s not even particularly close. (I think AZ/MI/PA and arguably even WI are off the table unless Republicans are winning the presidential race with 290+ EV, but I could see NV flipping even in a narrow Biden win, assuming Marchant’s not the nominee.)

Lol Laxalt isn't running he overperformrned the polls and still lost we know Johnson and Brown do too but Johnson is DOA in 28 to Sara Rodriguez in a Prez yr

Do users know why Beshear is ahead because Trump J6 is hurting the brand of R party it's not a typical Eday and it's VBM not same day the reason why Lombardo won he is pro choice all the other Rs are pro life

It's the same map as 22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t think it’s guaranteed that Rosen will "outperform the polls" again in 2024. Obviously we should be careful not to overestimate NV's R trend again, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is the most vulnerable D-held seat after OH/WV/MT and that it’s not even particularly close. (I think AZ/MI/PA and arguably even WI are off the table unless Republicans are winning the presidential race with 290+ EV, but I could see NV flipping even in a narrow Biden win, assuming Marchant’s not the nominee.)

I disagree about Arizona. Sinema running third-party makes it very unpredictable. I also disagree about Wisconsin - that one's a tossup.

Johnson overperformrned due to IAN we won the WI judge race by 11 and EVERS won in Apr it's Lean D not Tossup we just had an Eday the liberal judge won

It's the same map as 22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV isn't more winnable because Dina Titus and most of our female Fed leg had tough races in 22 and survived just like Ann Kuster did in NH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rosen isn’t a stronger candidate than most other disciplined D challengers/incumbents — she won by the type of margin that any halfway competent Democrat was going to beat Heller by in 2018. Yes, she ran a "good" campaign, but it would have taken a spectacularly bad one to lose that race.

She’s basically doing what Catherine Cortez Masto did, but the question for her/in this race is: Does that work in a presidential year with Biden & Trump on the ballot?

Given the national numbers, it’s hard to argue that this race is any worse than a Toss-up for the GOP even if you assume that down-ballot Ds substantially outrun Joe Biden. Sam Brown isn’t *impressive* or anything, but he can ride a wave to victory.

CCM and Rosen are very similar to Dina Titus, and all three have been reelected over and over as I told you before and Rosen is outraising Brown


Lombardo was elected over Sisolak because he was Pro  choice Brown and Laxalt are pro Life

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rosen is up by 5 over Brown