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Author Topic: New Senate Rankings  (Read 15254 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,139
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: April 10, 2007, 06:49:35 PM »
I am only going to do the most vulnerable:

Dem

Likely dem:

NJ Lautenberg
MT Baucus

Lean Dem

SD T. Johnson

Tossup
LA M. Landrieu

GOP:

Likely GOP

ME Susan Collins

Lean GOP

MN N. Coleman
OR G. Smith

Tossup
NH: JE Sununu

Lean Dem
CO: open seat

Forget about Tom Harkin and Elizabeth Dole.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,139
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2007, 07:38:08 PM »
I wouldn't trust that Grove Insight poll, on Or Gordon's smith, usually internals inflate the polls, I think G. Smith have a small lead.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,139
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2007, 07:04:42 PM »
I doubt S. Collins' seat is going to be a tossup, Tom Allen is a good fundraiser but her approvals are skyrocketing. According to approvals CO<NH<MN<OR<VA are the ones more competetive. Susan Collins will win 55% of the vote.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,139
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2007, 07:25:54 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2007, 07:29:11 PM by Quincy »
He trailing by 20 pts. He isn't the frontrunner, but he can make it close at the end.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,139
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2007, 07:57:26 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2007, 08:03:52 PM by Quincy »
Two issues that sets candidates apart are Iraq and Stem cell research. Although S. Collins isn't there yet on Iraq, she gave a speech in May clearly setting herself apart from the President on Iraq in his handling on Iraq. As for stem cell research, S. Collins championed that right, that issue will not and cannot be used against her. Making her the slight favorite in this race in my view.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,139
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2007, 04:44:25 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2007, 05:01:41 AM by Quincy »
If the Dems put the VA/Webb senate race inton play last time, they can certainly make a race out of this one at the end. But they would have to get a large turnout to flip this race equal to 2006 because of Collins moderate positions. But they will have to do it as the underdog in this race.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,139
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2007, 06:07:43 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2007, 06:30:50 AM by Quincy »
Likely Dem
SD

Lean Dem
CO
NH
LA

Tossup
MN

Lean GOP
VA (Tom Davis is slight favorite in this race regardless of who runs)
OR

Likely GOP
ME
NC
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,139
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2007, 02:42:15 PM »
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