PPP: NE-2: trump +3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Go Osbourne

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It does turn out NE-02 is useful.

Trump gets 269 if he flips PA, AZ, and NV or 270 with NE-02

And here are 3 cases where Trump gets 268 without NE-02 or 269 with NE-02
PA, WI, NV
PA, MI
PA, GA

Biden can win ME 2, all this says is that the polls are MOE thank you very much we can see the polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a poll MOE, and it's a good poll for Biden not bad polls, we expected Biden to win NE 2 by a landslide and he isn't but he is making gains all over look at CA 27 and it's not October yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

My point is that this is a 9 point swing right from 2020.  And from a polling outfit traditionally associated with Dems!

Yes, the most recent close MN and VA polls were Trump internals.  However, there have been non-partisan polls in both finding similar results in the recent past.  There was a Biden +2 Survey USA in MN earlier this year, for example.  

Swings aren’t uniform. Take the polls which have Biden up nationally/tied/ahead in rust belt states

You would expect NE-02 to polling well for Biden given that he's been polling better in areas with similar demographics. On its face this a terrible poll for Biden. However, in all likelihood this is a small sample size issue, as it's 1/3 of a n = 737 poll. It's also unclear if they weighted for results in NE-02 as well or just took the crosstab of the larger poll.

Lol you down Biden every chance you get we haven't seen any ME polls either., How is Trump doing in ME 2

It's a terrible poll for Deb Fischer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'll be funny if we lose MD and WV and Hold NE HOW WOULD OSBOURNE DETERMINE THE FILIBUSTER

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump wins NE-2, GA, NV & AZ and holds NC we have the dreaded 269-269 Tie.

I highly doubt Trump would win NE-02 without winning WI and MI!  PA is different because it actually has NE level "everyone went to college" suburbs for Biden to gain in.  That's why this poll is concerning.

It's not concerning if it's MOE and Osbourne is only down 4, users worry too much Biden isn't worried he is governing, you know why he trusts vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like President TRUMP is in good shape in the Midwest. Good news for Wisconsin.

How is a NE polls good news for Trump