Bernie (user search)
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Poll
Question: what percentage of bernie voters back Hillary in Gen election?
#1
0-10
 
#2
10-20
 
#3
20-30
 
#4
30-40
 
#5
40-50
 
#6
50-60
 
#7
60-70
 
#8
70-80
 
#9
80-90
 
#10
90-100
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 70

Author Topic: Bernie  (Read 1690 times)
angus
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Posts: 17,424
« on: April 21, 2016, 01:21:45 PM »

I'm guessing 80 to 90 percent.  I only know myself and one other person who will definitely vote for Sanders next Tuesday and will definitely not vote for Hillary Clinton for any office.  But I live in a bubble at the top of an Ivory Tower, so I'll assume there are others that I never deign to speak to.  I still don't think it tops 20% of all Sanders primary voters, so I went with 80-90%.
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angus
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Posts: 17,424
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2016, 04:29:50 PM »


There has been some analysis by David Brooks and others of this question (and of the question of Kasich/Rubio/Paul voters voting for Clinton should Trump get nominated by the GOP).  The New Republic has called Sanders and Trump "political twins."  The New York Times has interviewed a number of Sanders voters who also like Trump.  A quick internet search will reveal many articles on the subject.  They all have slightly different analyses, but basically the reasons are that (1) Trump is not Clinton, (2) Trump is a populist, (3) Trump wants to end gun-free zones, (4) Trump claims to be a protectionist with respect to manufacturing jobs, and (5) Trump talks about hedge-fund managers and other opportunists taking money out of the economy. 

Obviously you could argue that they're ideologically dissimilar and a voter would really have to be cherry-picking to come to the conclusion that if Sanders doesn't get nominated, then Trump is the second-best choice.  I don't really buy into that argument.  I think they see Sanders as unorthodox, outside the mainstream, and provocative.  Trump shows those qualities as well. 

I don't know what the percent is.  NYT produced a poll in January that suggested something like 15% of Republicans will not vote for Trump under any circumstances and a similar percent of Democrats will not vote for Clinton.  Some of them will not vote, some will vote for other candidates (Socialist, Green, Libertarian, etc.), and some will vote for the opposite party.  I will likely vote for a Libertarian, a Socialist, or the Prohibitionist Party candidate.  I haven't decided yet, but it will definitely be someone other than Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. 
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