Democrats Wondering Whether It's 2002 All Over Again in NJ

[DownWithTheLeft]

http://www.bergenrecord.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyJmZnYmVsN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2OTg5OTMz

News of subpoenas at a non-profit group tied to U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez set Democratic insiders buzzing Friday about whether to repeat the "2002 switcheroo" that replaced a wounded candidate with a winner in the final weeks of the campaign.

  
"It's not at the point where party leaders are saying to Bob, 'You gotta get out,' but it could get that way fast," one insider said by phone from a party conference in Atlantic City where Menendez called the subpoenas politically motivated.

"It's all the buzz down here: Are we going to go back to the switcheroo? Can we?" he said.

But the answer, several Democrats said, appears to be "no."

The same factor that made Menendez the odds-on favorite to replace Governor Corzine in January -- a huge campaign bankroll that totaled $7.4 million on June 30 -- could be what keeps him in the race to the end.

"Say the party bosses sat down at a back room at Bally's and decided they needed to get someone else. Who [are] you going to get to do it? Where are they going to raise the money?" said one Washington Democrat.

When Sen. Bob Torricelli ended his reelection campaign on Sept. 30, 2002, Democrats got the state Supreme Court's approval for a last-minute replacement by recently retired Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

Lautenberg had won three statewide elections and was well known to Washington interest groups willing to work for him and contribute money. He also opened his own checkbook and lent his campaign $1.5 million.

One potential replacement for Menendez would be state Senate President Richard Codey, D-Essex, whose political popularity surged while serving as acting governor in 2005. But Codey has never run statewide, and would have to start fund raising from scratch because of the differences in state and federal contribution laws.

The three Democrats in the House with Senate aspirations, Rob Andrews of Haddon Heights, Frank Pallone of Long Branch and Steve Rothman of Fair Lawn, have about $2 million apiece in their campaign accounts.

But with Democrats expecting to recapture the House this year, it's questionable whether any of them would want to give up the chance of serving in the majority for a long-shot chance of a Senate seat.

Finally, the candidate on the other side of the ballot is different in 2006.

"You're not running against [2002 Republican Senate nominee] Doug Forrester, who was an empty suit with money," the Washington insider said. "You're running against a Kean. I think Menendez is just going to stick it out and go into nuclear mode" to try to convince voters that both he and opponent Tom Kean Jr. are tarnished so voters base their choice on Washington issues rather than personalities.

Officially, Democrats offered support for Menendez on Friday. The chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, called Menendez an "outstanding senator" and assailed Kean for using the "GOP attack machine" to smear him.

But in background conversations, Democrats said they did not know whether Menendez would find himself in the same situation as Torricelli, unable to talk about issues such as Iraq and education and health care and the minimum wage because the press only wants to ask questions about possible corruption.

An expectation is widespread that federal indictments are imminent for at least one and possibly more prominent Democrats. The charges are not connected to Menendez, but could still put the party on the defensive.

Finally, former Gov. James E. McGreevey's tell-all book is also due out this month, and coverage of his discussions of internal party politics could derail any Menendez effort to focus attention elsewhere.

Republicans in the state Senate sent a letter to Codey on Friday urging him to schedule a vote on a bill that would make it impossible to replace a candidate closer to election day than 48 days.

"We believe that a hearing and a vote on this measure is vitally important to preserve the integrity of the electoral process," Sens. Leonard Lance, R-Hunterdon, and Anthony Bucco, R-Morris, wrote to Codey.

So, could it be 2002 all over again?  Will Dems pull off another switch-a-roo?  My bet is they will not, but it is certainly possible.

I hope it is Steve Rothman, because this could set up an open seat in my district and maybe even give Vince Micco the chance to run unopposed.

If I had to guess I'd say Codey, and if he passes Bob Andrews.

Only Codey would be considered the favorite against Kean, the other would not have the baggage of Menendez, but I'm sure the GOP could find something.  This also do not have the money Menendez has, so I don't know if they could compete.  If the ballot includes Tom Kean and anyone but Dick Codey on Election Day, Tom Kean Jr. will be the next senator from NJ.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Downwithdaleft, with easy passing day, i am getting closer to support kean....

I think that is the feeling of the majority of Menendez supporters

I know I called Menendez to be caught up in a cloud of corruption in one of my first posts, anyone call for him to go down big before me?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Anyone think this is likely?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Codey's wife already made it clear, he stays in the state senate.

Yeah, but that's so the Dem machine doesn't put them at the bottom of the Hudson

[DownWithTheLeft]

Good to see most aren't as unlogically and bias as Conan and Smash, there still saying Menendez is the favorite.

[DownWithTheLeft]

None is new?

I never heard Dem party bosses saying maybe it is time Menendez steps aside.  Come on Conan, even you must admit that at least at this point Kean is the favorite.

[DownWithTheLeft]

None is new?

I never heard Dem party bosses saying maybe it is time Menendez steps aside.  Come on Conan, even you must admit that at least at this point Kean is the favorite.

Read the article. No one is saying step aside. Besides I was saying the rental deal was nothing new. NJ is lean democratic still.

I WANT WHATEVER YOUR SMOKING

Please explain how NJ is lean Dem despite the new polls and new accusations, the impending subpoena, and the fact that more is being found out every day?  Maybe you can say Menendez can rebound, but for right now he is not the favorite.

BTW, Bush=Kean is not an acceptbale answer, b/c I'm sure that one-note song is what you were going to say.

And you have lost any credibility on this w/our ludacris statements.  Tossup/Dem maybe, but definetly not lean Dem.  But I hope more Dems think like you, it really helps the Republican

[DownWithTheLeft]

None is new?

I never heard Dem party bosses saying maybe it is time Menendez steps aside.  Come on Conan, even you must admit that at least at this point Kean is the favorite.

Read the article. No one is saying step aside. Besides I was saying the rental deal was nothing new. NJ is lean democratic still.

I WANT WHATEVER YOUR SMOKING

Please explain how NJ is lean Dem despite the new polls and new accusations, the impending subpoena, and the fact that more is being found out every day?  Maybe you can say Menendez can rebound, but for right now he is not the favorite.

BTW, Bush=Kean is not an acceptbale answer, b/c I'm sure that one-note song is what you were going to say.

And you have lost any credibility on this w/our ludacris statements.  Tossup/Dem maybe, but definetly not lean Dem.  But I hope more Dems think like you, it really helps the Republican

If more dems thought like me, then wouldnt they still vote for Menendez? I dont think that could help republicans much.

They would stop campaigning, obviously you missed the point and just strayed from the fact your argument has no logical basis.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Trust me, he will not win, don't let Conan's opinions and partisanship sway you into a sense of denial, I know your smarter than that.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Trust me, he will not win, don't let Conan's opinions and partisanship sway you into a sense of denial, I know your smarter than that.

I'm not swayed by Conan or anyone else. I don't believe that Chuck Schumer is going to allow Bob Menendez to lose. If need be, the DSCC will drag Menendez across the finish line.

If the scandal worsens, Kean wins; otherwise, this is race still has a very slight Democratic edge.

I don't think Chuck Schumer has any more tug on this race than Dole and RSCC or whatever have on this race.  All this and no one mentions that Tom Kean Sr. has yet to make campaign stops frequently.  When he comes out, expect a more direct correlation between him and his son and this race will soon become a runaway.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Trust me, he will not win, don't let Conan's opinions and partisanship sway you into a sense of denial, I know your smarter than that.

I'm not swayed by Conan or anyone else. I don't believe that Chuck Schumer is going to allow Bob Menendez to lose. If need be, the DSCC will drag Menendez across the finish line.

If the scandal worsens, Kean wins; otherwise, this is race still has a very slight Democratic edge.

I don't think Chuck Schumer has any more tug on this race than Dole and RSCC or whatever have on this race.  All this and no one mentions that Tom Kean Sr. has yet to make campaign stops frequently.  When he comes out, expect a more direct correlation between him and his son and this race will soon become a runaway.

Chuck Schumer is one of the best strategists in D.C. Period. According to Roll Call, the GOP was worried about losing the House back in January 2005. You know why? Because Rahm Emanuel had just been choosen as the DCCC chairman.

Emanuel and Schumer are bulldogs who have out-raised, out-smarted and out-recruited their Republican foes. Other the other hand, Dole has been a miserable failure with the NRSC and Reynolds is too busy fighting a reelection battle to do an effective job for the NRCC.

I have read interviews with the Harvard educated Schumer and I've seen how aggressive and smart he is. He will find a way to help Democrats save this seat.

California had the "Terminator," Senate Democrats have the "Schumenator." I have faith in Schumer.

That's funny, because I have faith in Tom Kean Jr., the next senator from the awful state of NJ

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but why is this sudden flurry of investigative activity (which may turn up nothing substantial) only coming now, instead of several months ago before the primaries?  The timing seems somewhat fishy.

It's NJ, the information coming out now might be forgetten by voters by Nov if it goes away, that's why we need to get pounding it in there heads.

I read today that the Menendez campaign is not going to try to deny what they did, just make Kean seems bad and then say you can have a corrupt Dem or a corrupt Rep, I'm not even kidding.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but why is this sudden flurry of investigative activity (which may turn up nothing substantial) only coming now, instead of several months ago before the primaries?  The timing seems somewhat fishy.

It's NJ, the information coming out now might be forgetten by voters by Nov if it goes away, that's why we need to get pounding it in there heads.

I read today that the Menendez campaign is not going to try to deny what they did, just make Kean seems bad and then say you can have a corrupt Dem or a corrupt Rep, I'm not even kidding.

He has no reason to deny what he did. He's proud of the work hes done for his constituents.

Comedy Goldmine
Can you be reasonable?  Bob Menendez is incredibly corrupt and it is being proven, yet you maintain what he did was right. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, I don't think Codey would step in, though he'd definitely have my support. I know little about Pallone or Andrews; Rothman's my congressman, and he's a pretty good guy, and from a district somewhat outside of the "machine".

Rothman would be a longshot because he is extremely liberal.  They would need a moderate like Codey or Andrews at this point. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, I don't think Codey would step in, though he'd definitely have my support. I know little about Pallone or Andrews; Rothman's my congressman, and he's a pretty good guy, and from a district somewhat outside of the "machine".

Rothman would be a longshot because he is extremely liberal.  They would need a moderate like Codey or Andrews at this point. 

Rothman wouldnt be a long shot at all. He just isnt known. Being extremely liberal is a good thing in NJ. Corzine, Lautenberg, and Bradley are all big liberals. So is most of the cong. delegation. Name recognition is the only thing needed.

Name recognition is quite important when you have about 30 days to campaign. 

Here's my results w/different candidates:

Codey 52
Kean 47

Kean 51
Bradley 49

Kean 50
Andrews 48

Kean 56
Rothman 43

Kean 52
Pallone 46

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, I don't think Codey would step in, though he'd definitely have my support. I know little about Pallone or Andrews; Rothman's my congressman, and he's a pretty good guy, and from a district somewhat outside of the "machine".

Rothman would be a longshot because he is extremely liberal.  They would need a moderate like Codey or Andrews at this point. 

Rothman wouldnt be a long shot at all. He just isnt known. Being extremely liberal is a good thing in NJ. Corzine, Lautenberg, and Bradley are all big liberals. So is most of the cong. delegation. Name recognition is the only thing needed.

Name recognition is quite important when you have about 30 days to campaign. 

Here's my results w/different candidates:

Codey 52
Kean 47

Kean 51
Bradley 49

Kean 50
Andrews 48

Kean 56
Rothman 43

Kean 52
Pallone 46

Codey - 54%
Kean -45%

Bradley - 53%
Kean - 47%

Kean - 50%
Holt- 49%
Rothman - 49%
Andrews -49%
Pallone - 49%

Because of name recognition in the last people.

Kean should beat Bradley and would dispose of the last 4, people would be angered by another switch saying enough is enough

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, I don't think Codey would step in, though he'd definitely have my support. I know little about Pallone or Andrews; Rothman's my congressman, and he's a pretty good guy, and from a district somewhat outside of the "machine".

Rothman would be a longshot because he is extremely liberal.  They would need a moderate like Codey or Andrews at this point. 

Rothman wouldnt be a long shot at all. He just isnt known. Being extremely liberal is a good thing in NJ. Corzine, Lautenberg, and Bradley are all big liberals. So is most of the cong. delegation. Name recognition is the only thing needed.

Name recognition is quite important when you have about 30 days to campaign. 

Here's my results w/different candidates:

Codey 52
Kean 47

Kean 51
Bradley 49

Kean 50
Andrews 48

Kean 56
Rothman 43

Kean 52
Pallone 46

Codey - 54%
Kean -45%

Bradley - 53%
Kean - 47%

Kean - 50%
Holt- 49%
Rothman - 49%
Andrews -49%
Pallone - 49%

Because of name recognition in the last people.

Kean should beat Bradley and would dispose of the last 4, people would be angered by another switch saying enough is enough

The poll from the other day suggests Codey and Bradley up a lot. People dont care about a switch. Only republicans do or partisans.

If people didn't care about the switch, Codey would be up 10, and I think Bradley's lead is inflated.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, I don't think Codey would step in, though he'd definitely have my support. I know little about Pallone or Andrews; Rothman's my congressman, and he's a pretty good guy, and from a district somewhat outside of the "machine".

Rothman would be a longshot because he is extremely liberal.  They would need a moderate like Codey or Andrews at this point. 

Rothman wouldnt be a long shot at all. He just isnt known. Being extremely liberal is a good thing in NJ. Corzine, Lautenberg, and Bradley are all big liberals. So is most of the cong. delegation. Name recognition is the only thing needed.

Name recognition is quite important when you have about 30 days to campaign. 

Here's my results w/different candidates:

Codey 52
Kean 47

Kean 51
Bradley 49

Kean 50
Andrews 48

Kean 56
Rothman 43

Kean 52
Pallone 46

Codey - 54%
Kean -45%

Bradley - 53%
Kean - 47%

Kean - 50%
Holt- 49%
Rothman - 49%
Andrews -49%
Pallone - 49%

Because of name recognition in the last people.

Kean should beat Bradley and would dispose of the last 4, people would be angered by another switch saying enough is enough

The poll from the other day suggests Codey and Bradley up a lot. People dont care about a switch. Only republicans do or partisans.

If people didn't care about the switch, Codey would be up 10, and I think Bradley's lead is inflated.

Science is science.  (poll says what it says)

Ah, so you admit Kean is up 5, that's a start