New Jersey on UK-Sized Constituencies

[DownWithTheLeft]

How far did you go out with the Rutherford + The Meadows.  The current EnCap is swinging Rutherford hard-right, while East Rutherford is moving slowly left due to some of the decisions of the mayor.  However, Lyndhurst is conservative as I believe Carlstadt is, but North Arlington is rather liberal.  However, great analysis

[DownWithTheLeft]

How far did you go out with the Rutherford + The Meadows.  The current EnCap is swinging Rutherford hard-right, while East Rutherford is moving slowly left due to some of the decisions of the mayor.  However, Lyndhurst is conservative as I believe Carlstadt is, but North Arlington is rather liberal.  However, great analysis

All five were within two points of 50-50 in 2004. Rutherford voted 52% Kerry; East Rutherford voted 50% Kerry with Bush on 49%; Bush won North Arlington by 6 votes; Carlstadt and Lyndhurst both voted 50% Bush with Kerry on 49%. That's the entire district, though I considered splitting off some of Kearny to add to the district as its the smallest district in Bergen-Hudson. Easily the most marginal district.

I can't imagine any of them are actually swinging substantially to the right or to the Republicans at anything more than the local level; much of the Republican vote in Southwest Bergen County is the slowly decaying remnant of the Italian-American Republican machine.

Good points, however, I notice towns like Rutherford, East Rutherford, North Arlington, etc. seem to have massive swings one way or the other every decade or so.  They seem to always want change and always think after awhile the other party will bring it, only to be sadly mistaken.  However, what an interesting election that would be.  I assume it would Rich DiLaschio against Bernadette McPherson which would produce an interesting result.  However, if you do not live around that area (which no one besides myself and in proximity Verily does) you have no idea what I am talking about an I apoligize for rambling.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I love the fact that you named one of the districts Cheesequake.

How far did you go out with the Rutherford + The Meadows.  The current EnCap is swinging Rutherford hard-right, while East Rutherford is moving slowly left due to some of the decisions of the mayor.  However, Lyndhurst is conservative as I believe Carlstadt is, but North Arlington is rather liberal.  However, great analysis

All five were within two points of 50-50 in 2004. Rutherford voted 52% Kerry; East Rutherford voted 50% Kerry with Bush on 49%; Bush won North Arlington by 6 votes; Carlstadt and Lyndhurst both voted 50% Bush with Kerry on 49%. That's the entire district, though I considered splitting off some of Kearny to add to the district as its the smallest district in Bergen-Hudson. Easily the most marginal district.

I can't imagine any of them are actually swinging substantially to the right or to the Republicans at anything more than the local level; much of the Republican vote in Southwest Bergen County is the slowly decaying remnant of the Italian-American Republican machine.

Good points, however, I notice towns like Rutherford, East Rutherford, North Arlington, etc. seem to have massive swings one way or the other every decade or so.  They seem to always want change and always think after awhile the other party will bring it, only to be sadly mistaken.  However, what an interesting election that would be.  I assume it would Rich DiLaschio against Bernadette McPherson which would produce an interesting result.  However, if you do not live around that area (which no one besides myself and in proximity Verily does) you have no idea what I am talking about an I apoligize for rambling.

I do, and assume those toss-up districts would still wind up going Democratic thanks to Ferriero's influence and money.

Look at the towns though, Lyndhurst, East Rutherford, Carlstadt all have Republican mayors (not sure about Carlstadt actually) and I'd be willing to put on money on Rutherford electing a Republican mayor this year (remember Van Winkle only lost by 200 votes last time and EnCap was not yet an issue).  These are areas that are/were Republican for the most part

[DownWithTheLeft]

Were being the operative word.  I think the New Jersey/New York GOP's historical lock on the Italian community is all but over.

I don't deny that those towns have Republican mayors...but the 36th District has Republican mayors all over it and Republicans couldn't elect someone district-wide to save their lives.

The fact that we don't have an actual candidate certainly does not help either.  I think the fact remains that the disaster with EnCap coupled with the property tax disaster is going to push Rutherford to where it votes about 55% Republican, coupled with other marginally Republican towns to the point where Republicans squeak out a slim, slim victory.  My point is also that the election would certainly be competitive.  I'm still a little confused, however, how far this district stretches.  Does it include towns like Wood Ridge and Hasbrouck Heights that I cannot speak to their voting patterns?

[DownWithTheLeft]

With the election of Mayors Hipp, Cassella, Heck and Roseman by commanding margins, as well as the election of two Republicans in North Arlington, I think the Meadowlands district moves Leans/Safe Republican