By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ugh - they're not as obsessed about marriage equality as you are. The Right's issue with Pratt is not because she's a social progressive (as opposed to Bullock et al regressives) but because they're worried about her votes on environmental and economic issues, which actually could hurt their financial base and power.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Country booths in... and everything is very weird... actually (outright f'ing weird)

Yay for Senate elections.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Have one of these: http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/wa/ been placed on the ABC website yet? They were fun

Yes, here.  It's gone back to giving the third seat to the Liberals, though it's very close on the last count: 625 votes out of over 280,000.  (68.7% counted.)

Fingers crossed Reynolds wins the final seat...

I would obviously prefer not, but as long as it's uncontested and valid.

Oh there are massive internal power rumbles about Bullock's little outburst and what the possible impact in relation to the vote it might have had - sufficed to say, even members of the right are PISSED at him.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The other problem was that despite some initial belief that this would trigger stronger votes for the two majors - it basically turned into a GIANT by-election, following general by-election behavior such as strong support for minor parties, including massive, almost inexplicable swings.

The Lib and Nat vote were whacked harder than Labor (as a proportion of their vote) but the Libs had a large buffer from September that would absorb it... plus a good deal of their lost primary vote, came straight back from preferences.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One thing that is interesting from the wash-up of the election...

A key union that was responsible for putting Bullock into the number 1 slot is now publicly regretting having done so. The other thing is the 'possible' impact of the Bullock comments in the period before the close of postals is that the ALP is actually running ahead of its normal votes by 3% and the Greens are way behind on their postals v normal (7-16%) ... considering how unusual a situation this is, some commentators are now suggesting this is the impact of Bullock statement, shifting support from the ALP to the Greens in the final 24 hours.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So ... this isn't technically an election of the current Federal Parliament - but there is the risk that if the NT Country Liberals do not win the Blaine by-election today - since they'd technically go into minority status (12/25) it could trigger a motion of no-confidence and an immediate election be called.

There's only been one poll (electorate-level polling caveat considered) and it has the CLP up 51-49 (off a previous CLP margin of 15%)... so a big swing it probably on, how big and it's impacts remains to be seen.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So far, the swing isn't enough.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd call it for the CLP quite easily - the primary got massacred, but it went to almost everywhere except the ALP.

I mean, it's really not that shocking - the NT Government is dysfunctional with a capital D, but if they voted for the ALP, or preferenced them highly, it almost guaranteed another election in 6-8 weeks time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Louise Pratt has unleashed on Joe Bullock - thank God "homophobic" "disloyal" and calls on reforms to take away the faction's power to give it to the members and says the leadership of the SDA does not reflect the membership of their own union, let alone the party.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Still doesn't change the fact that the union leadership does not represent the views of their membership.

It's sad the union movement refuses to change... at their own detriment.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism

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But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shop,_Distributive_and_Allied_Employees_Association#Criticism

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But this isn't even a union issue... so why is it important?

Because the leadership still thinks the labor movement hasn't evolved beyond the days of Bob Santamaria and the domination of the old-school Catholic Right... they think they still have the right to dictate national policy issues that have NOTHING to do with their remit.

That's an issue for the ALP not for the unions themselves.

That's kind of my point. The Union leadership are acting like its still 1985 (the right union leaders were the ones who forced the NSW Wran Government to not respond to AIDS "because that's looking after poofters" (exact quote)) - that leadership usually is the spawn of previous leaders who have fed their children the same bigoted views and perpetuating their disproportionate say at party conference. The SDA threw everything they had - including wasting their memberships dues to stop national conference even VOTING on same sex marriage.

The SDA leadership is untouchable however, due to a disparate membership base and the fact the workers don't tend to be the most politically savvy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's less ALP leaning than Redcliffe for example. What should ring serious warning bells for the LNP is that this is right next door and very similar to Campbell Newman's seat.

Talley... seriously? This was a debate about the margins.

Swing is sitting at 19% ... 19%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is not the kind if seat that should generate a Redcliffe-like swing ... but all primaries are in and projected swing is 19.6%. Anything suggesting this is anything less than a complete disaster is fooling themselves.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nice to see that these Labor seats finally falling back into place.  Newman is most definitely moving to a safer seat in 2015 if he intends to remain in Parliament.

Newman moving seats would probably cost them another 2 seats, much like the ALP's ads late in the 2012 campaign that urged voters not to give the LNP too big a majority.

If you were senior in the LNP what you prefer? Losing Newman? Or losing Government?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Two more "victims" of ICAC in New South Wales resign their seats: Tim Owen, Newcastle MP and Andrew Cornell, Charlestown MP.

Both were gains in the 2011 wave, and seem to have been reliable Labor seats.

There will be-elections or they'll wait the general election in March?

The election is in March, if this were November or something and the Summer coming up, you'd understand waiting until then... but not for August. I'd expect by-elections by October.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Charlestown and Newcastle by-elections on 25 October.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/10/25/newcastle-and-charlestown-by-elections-october-25/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/10/25/newcastle-and-charlestown-by-elections-october-25/

If I understand well, polls close at 6PM local time (3AM eastern)?

Correct - but you won't see any significant results until around 7pm.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor will be fine in both.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Both called for Labor

Swing to Labor in Newcastle slightly subdued, in no short part off the strength of the Greens. But it's a by-election and the Greens were always going to do well. Charlestown was a stonking ALP win - just over 20% swing on primaries and over 50%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Both called for Labor

Swing to Labor in Newcastle slightly subdued, in no short part off the strength of the Greens. But it's a by-election and the Greens were always going to do well. Charlestown was a stonking ALP win - just over 20% swing on primaries and over 50%.

Worth noting the Independent in Newcastle was the de facto Liberal candidate, something they lacked in Charleston.

Indeed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The margin was pegged back quite a bit when the postal votes were counted, they broke 58-42% Lib, but the rumbles out of the count of the absentee and pre-polls today suggests the breakdown is much closer to the Saturday vote totals - the ALP position is being boosted and all being equal, there might be some kind of declaration this evening.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol... now the ALP is up by 21 in Fisher.

Apparently the later postals were very unfriendly the Libs in relation to preference flows, whereas the earlier ones were, if anything, over-friendly to them.

So... no one has a clue. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's the WORST possible time for a by-election (increase in protest votes)... I'd be very wary of counting Labor out.

EDIT: But yes, I agree with morgieb - probably 52-48 Lib.