Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

Um... MA was always going to be close?

I think this really is a case of margins. This is a big delegate state and a strong Clinton result will really screw Sanders leading into 15 March. I do think a 12-16% win is reasonable to expect. Anything closer than that Sanders will call a moral win, bigger than than... unlikely, but really hurts Sanders with similar states coming up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton's trustworthy numbers in MA were 54%-43% for reference. They're 58%-39% here.

Didn't those numbers had Sanders leading?

Nah, those are from the adjusted exits that give Clinton a slight lead.

So adjusted here for Michigan, we could be looking at a 5-7% Clinton win.

Yeeessss.... but it's also what proportion of the vote this is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think we're probably looking at a 56-43 kind of result.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The prior Michigan polling might end up being right, but it'll be a coincidence I imagine more than anything: those of us who have been around for awhile know that Michigan polling in general is garbage, regardless of the source.

That is the truth. Depending on voters etc etc we could reasonably see Clinton win by 3 or 23 ... Plus early exits aren't the best guide.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

Interestingly, in TX, Continue Obama's policies was only 48%. Clinton still won 66%

At the moment, less liberal is twice that of MS. Makes me wonder if there's some kind of cross-party shenanigans going on?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's annoying we're going to have to wait another full hour just because 4 HP counties in Michigan have their polls close at 9.

No results? Won't some trickle in?

They'll probably show numbers, like they did in TX. But not make a projection until all polls close.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Still early, but Clinton behind in Oakland and Wayne county, which was supposed to be Clinton stronghold

Because it's early?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Panicking panicking panicking

Um... why?

Can we just wait for the results?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

None of the major cities are in yet btw.

Oakland County is a huge suburban Detroit County and Bernie is winning it by 4% with 20.2% of the votes county. This should be a Clinton stronghold.

I'm not sure it should be. There's a ton of working class whites, so considering how Bernie has gone, I kind of expected him to do well here.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Michigan is showing that Bernie is only doing as bad as the corporate media says he is.

Do stop it. The media wants an extended race.

The SE corner is starting to come in.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Kalamazoo just came in, so it slightly bumped up Sanders.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Exit polls just out...Clinton only winning women by 1%....WHAT?!?!

Um... wha?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Um... breathe.

Exit polls just out...Clinton only winning women by 1%....WHAT?!?!

Um... wha?

Sanders winning men by 15...OMG...

I'm waiting for the exit updates... that doesn't smell right, regardless of whether you like it or not.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This exit poll is completely whacky... like nuts.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why is this count so slow?!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I have no doubt that this race is going to California now.

Unfortunately... I think you're more likely to be correct than not.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Could this issue be the difference between actual votes outstanding versus the precincts yet to report?

TYT calls it for sanders

I take them as seriously as DDHQ.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

HUGE dump from Kent just came in. Wayne and Genesee still to come in.

Even though I hate the result, a close election can be sick and sad fun.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Congratulations to Sanders and his supporters.

Clinton has a LOT of work to do.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

#HowStupidAreThePeopleOfMichigan

Smarter than the people of Iowa or South Carolina.

Can we not do this? I get a little gloating, especially considering the polling FAIL.