New poll hype thread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also, PPP might be hinting that Cooper is beating McCrory by at least 4 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/778405124737675264

The thing about happiness scale is that they're usually relative.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also, PPP might be hinting that Cooper is beating McCrory by at least 4 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/778405124737675264

The thing about happiness scale is that they're usually relative.

Sometimes, they're very literal. So maybe it's Clinton +4 or +1 or a Tie???

True, long-story short - they're ****-teases.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

MO - Trump +6
VA - Clinton +8
CO - Clinton +5

MO - TIE
CO - Bennett +11

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Given VA's consistency... I'd happily swap it for IA or OH

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

CO: Clinton +6
FL: Clinton +2
PA: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +9
NC: Clinton +2

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

CO: Clinton +6
FL: Clinton +2
PA: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +9
NC: Clinton +2

Now that is a 7

No, I think that would be higher.  Democrats would be pretty happy with all of those results.  With an overall 7, at least 1 of the 5 polls is likely to be disappointing for D's.  Maybe 2 of them.

Wouldn't tiny leads in NC and FL be disappointing?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ugh ... where is it?!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looks like Harry lied to us

538 hyping something for attention?!?!

But it seems the poll was done, given the data slowly leaking out.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'll say Clinton+6

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Any predictions about tomorrow's update of the LA Times poll?  I'll say Trump +0.8.

Why would that trash-heap move?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

NBC will release full Florida and Pennsylvania polls at 9 AM Eastern time, presumably on Meet the Press

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/785076317746139136

Before anyone gets too exited- it's WAY too early to gauge the public response.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

NBC will release full Florida and Pennsylvania polls at 9 AM Eastern time, presumably on Meet the Press

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/785076317746139136

Before anyone gets too exited- it's WAY too early to gauge the public response.

Mark Murray said the polls were completed before Friday so there is no impact of the hot mic tape in these numbers

Ah, well at least they'll be a good baseline

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I want a real poll... not Google.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd like to see a trump comeback in these polls.. but i can see some surprises tomorrow.

On what grounds?

I expect we'll see something around that 6-8 lead with MoE playing funny-buggers around the edges.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ya i agree could see a little higher in one of the polls too. A dead heat makes a more exciting election just like 2012

I'd prefer a large, boring margin when one of the two options is a sociopath.

Indeed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tennessee Google Consumer Studies poll (that I commissioned) to be released at the top of the hour.  Before weighting, I am giving it a 2-3 on the PPP Democratic happiness scale.

Rly?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I assume they mean midnight Texas time?

Yeah another nearly two hours to go... sigh.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looks like it's midnight central time.

Um... isn't it 11pm?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

AZ: TIE
CO: C+8
NC: C+3
PA: C+6

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/792845629848363008

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Seems like Public Policy Polling is noticing a tightening, but nothing severe yet.

Good. Since they seems to do a lot of polling, there is definitely a [non-dramatic] shift. But since the story is still alive (wheather it is about Clinton or Comey is less important IMHO — as long as it about emails), the shift might grow.

Haha https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/792846457120366592

I strongly doubt we'll see big shifts at all. The electorate is increasingly baked in.

I think "no movement" is an equally plausible interpretation.

Yeah, I read it that way too.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Total Tie, would be my guess.

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

they say it's post-comey (but ofc before the dem counter-attack) so it could be like post-access hollywood....short moment of shock and unwilligness to identify.

could easily bounce back until next week.

Yes... even with Comey, I don't see a slide of that magnitude, let alone similar to scale of Pussygate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Total Tie, would be my guess.

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

So is an 11 point slide for literally no reason, but that didn't stop the Washington Post...

There were methodological reasons for this too... so people just really need to calm the eff down. She was not up 12% and she's not up 1%. So chill.

Lest we also forget that MC can be extremely bouncy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmm, MC swing only 2 points in Hillary's direction between post VP debate poll and post pussy tape poll.

mmhmm - it's demonstrated some weird against-trend movements.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Total Tie, would be my guess.

The last was Clinton +6... so a 6/8 point net slide? Probably a little extreme.

So is an 11 point slide for literally no reason, but that didn't stop the Washington Post...

There were methodological reasons for this too... so people just really need to calm the eff down. She was not up 12% and she's not up 1%. So chill.

Lest we also forget that MC can be extremely bouncy.

I don't care about that poll, it's clear junk. My point is they sometimes do not follow logic.

No, which is why you shouldn't worry too much about a single, often unreliable poll.