Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll is interesting ...

Gillard regains preferred PM title, the ALP primary is up to 34% and the Coalitions down to 44% for a 52-48% TPP.

However... the NP also shows a return to Rudd would shift the ALP primary to 47 and drop the Coalition to 39%

Yeah, the part with Rudd seems questionable. Did they release TPP figures for that scenario?

56-44...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Coalition's support really has little to do with them... and they know it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Coalition's support really has little to do with them... and they know it.

This has traditionally been true in Australian politics at both state and federal levels. It's the old saying that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.

Of course, but there are plenty of examples in recent Australian history where Governments were terribly unpopular BUT oppositions didn't present a palatable plan and lost elections they had no right to lose, 1993/2004...

While governments tend to lose elections, rather than oppositions win them, there is a rule about incumbency, people are inherently conservative and need to be made comfortable about a change. Which is the potential trap I see for the Coalition. The small-target strategy that worked in NSW/QLD I doubt will be working at the Federal level.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As someone who knows a bit about how the carbon price works... I will bet money, even if they could repeal it, they won't.

It'll cost too much to undo and more than likely they'll ACCELERATE the ETS union with the EU, which will push down the price.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Please, anything (save God Save the Queen) is better than what we have at the moment.

You have no idea how much I hate Waltzing Matilda... I'll happily bring back God Save the Queen over that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Please, anything (save God Save the Queen) is better than what we have at the moment.

You have no idea how much I hate Waltzing Matilda... I'll happily bring back God Save the Queen over that.

Please go die.

Wow, my hyperbole was out hyperbole'd

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So we should have skippy the bush kangaroo as out anthem. Great.

Something written by The Whitlams would no doubt fit the bill for some.

Our national anthem, like everyone else's is based on the dominant story of our history... our development into nationhood was quite tame and evolutionary compared to many - so we've got a sedate and pretty tame song. I mean, Waltzing Matilda is about a sodding sheep thief who commits suicide. What about We Are Australian? Which I see having enough of a message to suit the job.

Mind you, getting my knickers in a twist about symbolism is not my thing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Leaks are saying Newspoll last week was a blip. Nielsen Poll will be steady on 56-44 with Gillard falling further behind Abbott as preferred PM and Rudd as preferred ALP leader by 2:1 (although Gillard has a small lead when only ALP voters are asked, the gutting of Gillard's numbers is coming from LNP voters (for context, they have Shorten on 24% and Gillard on 12%...))

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Gillard goes or is challenged, then I think it has to be Rudd... I can't think of anyone else who could cut through in this time and, at the same time, can't be tied to everything this Government has done.

Smith is too boring, Shorten is too green and tied to Gillard (despite his attempts to suggest otherwise) and is known as a faceless man, Crean is past it, Carr is in the Senate... Swan, just no... Plibersek? no... so that leaves someone like Combet or perhaps someone like Clare as a dark-horse.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Smid, based on that... I think I know who you might be suggesting of those I've dismissed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/many-shades-of-grey-in-art-of-denial-of-spills-and-other-ills-20130319-2gdni.html

Very good article about this leadership "stuff"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apparently there is to be a Labor caucus meeting at 4pm?

''It would be silly to tell people watching your program that there is nothing going on,''

Comment from Joel Fitzgibbon a short time ago...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, it didn't work spectacularly in 2010 either. I do hope we haven't all forgotten that train wreck of a campaign from the ALP.

Keep in mind... the ALP had 55-45 lead at the start of the campaign... the horrendous campaign brought them down.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apparently there is to be a Labor caucus meeting at 4pm?

''It would be silly to tell people watching your program that there is nothing going on,''

Comment from Joel Fitzgibbon a short time ago...

A senior Rudd backer... will be interesting to see if that means there won't be another third candidate rise up through the middle.

He said something... cryptic in the same comments "there will not be an extraordinary meeting of the caucus about leadership"... but he also said numbers for a challenge are not being counted.

So it's all a bit strange...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah - my immediate gut reaction is that nothing will happen.

But I was the person 2 days before the 2010 move who said "surely they wouldn't be that stupid", when a friend in the loop told me rumbles were getting deafening.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obviously "this has to be settled by Thursday" means it has to be settled before Parliament rises for their autumn recess. It'll be the last sitting day before the Budget session in mid-May.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd advise not to get too excited - IF there is a meeting, the likely reason for two caucus meetings in a row is due to either a pep talk or a bollocking.

Having another caucus meeting is odd, but considering how shaky the MPs are... it's not shocking.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Simon Crean please.

I supported Gillard taking over from before it was a real possibility, and I'm glad she did. I've supported her fully, until about yesterday. But the last week has shifted my view, to the point where now the number one concern has to be stopping an Abbott win, and particularly an Abbott win with huge numbers. I don't know who can do that, but I now think it can't be Gillard, and that's a shame.

Crean? why not just keep Gillard on rather than the "oh, we're ready to go, just got the old boy on to steady the ship before we go down"...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Crean is not that capable... he was a chaotic opposition leader and from dealing with his office and with him personally now... it doesn't strike me as a good move.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Chaotic as opposition leader how? He was certainly dull, but he also started the process of reforming the ALP, something that needed to happen and couldn't have under someone like Latham or Rudd.

I'm partly supporting him because he went to both my primary school and high school, to be honest, but he also has a very strong history ofdoing what is best for the party, including most relevantly stepping down from the leadership at a point that his colleagues wouldn't have forced him to.

I suppose that you will have butted heads with him and his staff in your job, so fair enough... but is he as bad as most ministers? And would he be worse than Abbott?

I had a feeling it was a parochial thing.

His office is certainly in the bottom 25% when it comes to effectiveness and efficiency... his advisers are among THE WORST I've ever come across.

I don't have a strong objection to him... as a person... but I do worry about his ability to drive an agenda. Slow and steady won't win this race... he needs to change things.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The rumour of a 4pm caucus meeting was allegedly spread from Coalition sources... it is not happening.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Im on record as saying Rudd was going to win in 2010. His removal had the polling as window-dressing, it was the power-broker's hatred. They smelled weakness and went for the kill.

Now, Rudd was a nightmare as PM, but his caucus never liked, let alone loved him... ever.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No... Gillard flat out denied it (she famously said the weekend before that she was more likely to play for her favourite AFL team before becoming PM). The lack of a 'The Prime Minister has my full support and while I appreciate the enthusiasm from some about a change of leadership, Julia Gillard should and will lead us to the election" tells us Rudd wants the leadership handed to him.

Rudd's mining tax was a lot tougher and actually would have gotten the revenue predicted, during the leadership scuffle of a year ago, Rudd's position on carbon pricing was to move to the ETS faster (which is what the Libs will do any way)... plus the Libs are talking less and less about the carbon price, they know its not the killer issue it was a year ago, plus it opens them up to questioning they really don't want.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

But as I've said before a challenge where the sitting PM barely has a majority of the caucus is virtually the same as losing one.

ANY chance for a political comeback, save for external crises (see 2001) would be vapourised. Look at both Hawke and Thatcher, anything beyond an emphatic mandate means they'll have to go, if not then, then soon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No no, not that situation. Were it not for Tampa and 9/11 then the Coalition more than likely would have lost that election, and badly.