State Legislatures and Redistricting

[Verily]

Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".

Well, the reason they don't do it in time for 2012 is that with their strange (and short) sessions and very early primary filing deadlines, they don't really have time do it in time for 2012. It wouldn't be *impossible*, certainly not for two federal districts that aren't going to be gerrymandered anyways, but if the necessary law change hasn't happened before the 2010 election it won't happen in time to affect this redistricting cycle.

Maine is also not the sort of state that would tolerate a party gerrymandering itself into power. About 3/4 of Maine voters are perfectly willing to vote for either party or for independents, and they would toss the Republicans (or Democrats) out on their ears if they gerrymandered the state legislature.

Not true in most states. True in Maine.

[Verily]

SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

Just looked at the map of this district and ... what?

Did this guy have some sort of scandal, or did the blacks on Buffalo's east side just epically fail to turn out?

Some cursory Googling suggests that Thompson was a miserable failure of a representative.

Yeah, it was basically like LA-02, only minus the big-ticket scandal. Grisanti is a one-termer for sure, and no amount of gerrymandering will save him since doing so would require leaving some other Republican very vulnerable.

[Verily]

Uh, wow. That probably sets a record for State Senate districts held by Republicans nationwide.

Highest I can find otherwise is the Washington County district in Vermont, 69% Obama, returns two Republicans and a Democrat. IIRC Frank Padavan's seat in Queens is 66% Obama, but he lost this year.