House Membership Change in 2008?

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You think Charlie Melancon will be defeated? Why?

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I hope your not counting on Shays loosing re-election.

 He'll lose re-election when Eaves is Governor of Mississippi

I don't understand this extreme faith in the reelection of Shays (and Gerlach from Republicans in Pennsylvania). They are both clearly highly vulnerable, and their districts are steadily becoming less and less favorable. Yes, they won reelection (very narrowly) in 2006, but those were also both reruns of 2004. You're in denial if you don't think Shays and Gerlach are among the most vulnerable House incumbents.

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If Linda Stender could not take down Mike Ferguson in 2006, she will not do it in 2008

I would say LoBiondo is in much more danger than Ferguson. He and Don Young are in trouble for (revealed post-2006 elections) connections with the Abramoff scandal, and LoBiondo's district is ultra-marginal.

[Verily]

Time for my first overly optimistic prediction.  Carrying the momentum of a 300+ EV victory for Fred Thompson Republicans gain 13 seats.

The list:
CA-4, CA-11, AZ-5, TX-22, KS-2, FL-22, OH-18, IN-9, GA-12, GA-15, PA-4, PA-8, PA-7, PA-10, NH-1

Dems gain: NM-1, NC-8

... The Republicans already hold CA-04 (though they look likely to lose it in 2008 due to mounting scandal). You're also delusional if you think the Republicans will win back OH-18, PA-07 or PA-08.

The seat is Chris's to keep as long as he wants. If he couldn't be taken down in 2004, and in 2006, than what makes him more vunerable in 2008, other than the fact he is the last Republican in the House for New England?
 
 I'm not saying Chris will walk in with 60% of the vote, but he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

First off, the Democrats will (probably) be running a different candidate; running the same candidate as in 2004 definitely hurt them in 2006. It will be a Presidential year, so the lean of the district will come more strongly into focus than in 2006. The district is probably at least 2 points more Democratic now than it was in 2004.

I by no means guarantee Shays' defeat, but this utter denial of the possibility of Shays' defeat baffles me.

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What the heck are Democrats going to pick up in Michigan?  And two seats out of Illinois?

IL-06 and IL-10. MI-07 and MI-09. I'm not saying the Democrats will win those, but they certainly stand a chance.

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It's a swing district, sure, but I don't think the Abramoff ties are going to stick.

And even if he's a potential target in 2008 (which I can see some reasoning behind), there's no way he's more vulnerable than Ferguson.
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Depends on who runs for the Democrats in LoBiondo's district, I suppose.

[Verily]

Verily,

When referring to downswiththeleft syndrome...the words "You're delusional" are implied from the start and don't need to be said.

I think he should share whatever he's smoking, must be good $hit

Ah, but reminding him at every turn may help mitigate the disease.