TX-SEN: True to Form

[Zaybay]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

[Zaybay]

O’Rourke pressure Cruz into a debate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/396438-cruz-has-yet-to-set-date-to-debate-dem-challenger

Its interesting that Cruz doesnt want to debate Beto, even though its been shown that Beto is still a relative lightweight, and Cruz is a master debater. What is he afraid of?

Oh Cruz is definitely a master debater. We know that all right.

I mean, he is. He went to Harvard thanks to his debate skills and, during the O years, was routinely the filibusterer and speaker for the Rs. When he went up against Sanders, even I, agree that he did remarkably well. And Beto is not the greatest. Early on, he fell into a Fox News trap in an interview he arranged.
Its just weird in my opinion. He has little to lose from this and everything to gain. Why wont he do it? Is this race close, like anything can flip this race close? Or is Cruz afraid of losing the debate? What is it?

[Zaybay]

Outraising Cruz with $10 million in campaign donations, trailing him by just 2 percentage points according to Civiqs, pressuring Cruz for a debate, an immigration crisis that seems to be mobilizing Texas' Hispanic vote in favor of O'Rourke, etc.

O'Rourke seems to be having a good summer.

Civiqs poll is a clear outlier here. Race seems to be more like +6 to +8 Cruz.

$10 million in 1 quarter is pretty bonkers but the TX GOP swamp runs deep, and Beto is probably much too leftwing for TX.

I agree that this poll is an outlier, but I would say that the race is around 4-5 in favor of Cruz, but with a good chunk of undecideds. It seems like Beto's job is getting easier every day. His cash flow is immense, Cruz is playing an extremely defensive game, and The Blue wave should be around D+10 by election day. I think this race is indeed flip able, but Beto needs to go all out, build an operation on the ground, and not waste all of it on Ads.

[Zaybay]

Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win

Even in the 2016 presidential election most of the polls were predicting that Hillary Clinton would win before the whole world was stunned when Donald Trump won the election thanks to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So even there, the polls failed to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

So we should expect such surprises for the 2018 midterms.

We *should* expect surprises in the 2018 election, as with all elections, but doing so on the basis of polling error in 2016 is unfounded.

The polls in 2016 showed Clinton with a 1-3 point lead in the popular vote and she ended up with a 3 point lead in the election. It wasn't the polls that failed in 2016, it was the interpretation of them by forecasters, most of whom did not appreciate how tenuous Clinton's lead was in the states you mentioned.

Anyway, back to Texas: is there any possibility that Cruz could depress his own turnout by being insufficiently hard line about the ICE child refugee prisons and family separation policy? It seems like the sort of thing that Texas Republicans would take the most extreme positions on, but Cruz has been somewhat soft on the issue.

Cruz and the tx gop seem to be making the same mistake that Clinton in 2016 and mark warner made in 2014. Overconfidence Cruz is convinced he is going to win that's all they keep talking about 'Texas is a red state and its going to be that way for a long time to come" that will depress turnout among your base. Why show up if you know your going to win?

I dont think Cruz is thinks hes gonna win easily. I think he is panicking. All of his actions are ones someone who was extremely vulnerable would take.
1. Not having a debate
2. Calling all possible doners
3. Not releasing internal polling
Hes not even airing many ads.
I believe Cruz is seeing information that says that if Beto gets name rec. hes done. He is not taking the right steps to stop this, however.
Cruz should be labelling Beto before he can, and trying to highlight his accomplishments. Instead, he is lulling his own base to sleep with his rhetoric, and trying to display overconfidence.
As a blue pollster said previously.

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[Zaybay]

Cruz campaign getting into some trouble...


Ted Cruz campaign runs into issues with FEC

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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-campaign-runs-into-issues-with-FEC-13038381.php

Wow, this is terrible. Not because he will lose money, he should be fine on that front. Beto now has the perfect ammo for this race. Beto is taking no corporate money and going off small$ donations, while Cruz is in trouble for taking too much corporate money, 3 times. this has been a good summer for Beto.

[Zaybay]

Interesting

Beto calls for Trump's impeachment after Putin Summit

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/397469-cruz-challenger-calls-for-trumps-impeachment-over-putin-summit

Wonder what hes playing at? My guess is raising his statewide recognition.

[Zaybay]

For my take on it, this logic has three scenarios.

1. Beto is losing by so much, +10, that he has decided to just F%&@ it, and become a national hero, hopefully to get him a VP slot or a PAC

2. Beto is close to winning in internals, and sees this as the issue to energize Dems and flip some suburbanites needed to secure victory

3. Beto has decided to just say what he wants, no matter how much his advisers rail against it. If it worked for Trump, why not Beto?

The third scenario is highly unlikely, as Beto has played rather moderate due to adviser influence. The first scenario is also a bit unlikely, as O'rourke has been keeping it in the mid-single digits, and has raised a butt-load of money.

But the second scenario, just seems odd. This would be the issue to push Texans to Beto? Im not sure.

My current theory is that Beto is playing the name rec. game. He knows that his main weakness is that no one knows who he is, so why not get some national headlines? It would help his campaign in the end.  But it does give Cruz easy fodder to throw at him. He may also be playing the enthusiasm game, trying to gel up Democrats in a midterm where only around 30% of registered voters actually vote. Or maybe hes just given up. I have no idea.

[Zaybay]

Interesting

Beto calls for Trump's impeachment after Putin Summit

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/397469-cruz-challenger-calls-for-trumps-impeachment-over-putin-summit

Wonder what hes playing at? My guess is raising his statewide recognition.

And this is why O'Rourke is not going to win this year. Calling for impeachment over this is frivolous. What Trump said was wrong, and was rightly condemned, but his words do not rise to the standard necessary for impeachment.

Oh, so treason isn't a standard for impeachment?

Trump did not commit treason yesterday. His words were wrong, but he did not commit treason. Serious evidence is required, indicating an impeachable offense, before he can be impeached.

guys, the two presidents to be impeached, Johnson and Clinton, were done so by rather flimsy circumstances. In fact, the Radical Rs set a trap for Johnson so they could impeach him. Technically, Dems could impeach on literally any law set forward, such as the fact that he has not put his stuff in a blind trust. That is impeachable, its not just treason.

[Zaybay]

Interesting

Beto calls for Trump's impeachment after Putin Summit

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/397469-cruz-challenger-calls-for-trumps-impeachment-over-putin-summit

Wonder what hes playing at? My guess is raising his statewide recognition.

And this is why O'Rourke is not going to win this year. Calling for impeachment over this is frivolous. What Trump said was wrong, and was rightly condemned, but his words do not rise to the standard necessary for impeachment.

Oh, so treason isn't a standard for impeachment?

Trump did not commit treason yesterday. His words were wrong, but he did not commit treason. Serious evidence is required, indicating an impeachable offense, before he can be impeached.

guys, the two presidents to be impeached, Johnson and Clinton, were done so by rather flimsy circumstances. In fact, the Radical Rs set a trap for Johnson so they could impeach him. Technically, Dems could impeach on literally any law set forward, such as the fact that he has not put his stuff in a blind trust. That is impeachable, its not just treason.

But impeaching Trump for words would be even flimsier then what Johnson and Clinton were impeached for.  And I don't think those impeachments were necessarily proper either. If we allow impeachment to become more of a blatant political weapon, then that will only further undermine the integrity of our political system.

I doubt impeachment would be about the words spoken. More likely, considering a good chuck of the Dem caucus is made of lawyers, they would find something, such as the trust issue, and use that.
Also, the last two uses of impeachment were blatantly political, so its not like this is new. And, from both times, the parties faced severe backlash, in elections and approval ratings. That's why so many are afraid to touch it, it could destroy them. Its unlikely to be widely used, and even then, I doubt impeachment is actually used by the Dems, as its just too risky.

[Zaybay]

 Beto released his first ad today: Showing Up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZUFA67aS1Q

[Zaybay]

Cruz can't escape his single-digit leads for some reason.  Hell, I can't even remember the last time he was 50 or over!

May be because hes, gasp, vulnerable!

[Zaybay]

Lyin Ted blows it again!

https://www.twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1025851407650439170

I...that....I cant...THATS SO MUCH $$$$!!!

Starting to think this seat is tilt R, the campaign hasnt heated up yet, and Cruz is already at a 5 point average. And it seems that Beto will have domination over the airwaves, which is crucial. Really, all I need to see is whether Beto improves when he actually spends his money.

[Zaybay]

Wow, the tone of this race has really shifted quickly. Its almost as if the race is actually competitive, and the fact that Beto has outraised Cruz and is only polling 5 points behind before he even uses the money is a good indicator that this will be a close race.

But this is Safe R TX, so this race is Titanium R.

[Zaybay]

just an update on those fundraising numbers:

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1026275225942597632

[Zaybay]

Literally how does this Texas progressive raise so much money

It cones from out-of-state liberals who hate Cruz

Most is instate, it literally says on his contributions. Cruz has more out of state money percentage wise compared to Beto.

[Zaybay]

The fact that this is Cruz's 4th or 5th ad so far, and Beto has only released one is telling.

[Zaybay]

Looks like the race may finally be starting:

Beto O'Rourke buys his first TV ads with $1.27 million he raised from Ted Cruz's attack ads

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/08/13/beto-orourke-buys-first-tv-ads-127-million-raised-ted-cruzs-attack-ads

[Zaybay]

If beto wins people will want him to run in the next presidential election thats open for the dems after 2020

Beto would have to run for re-election in 2024, and I doubt he'd win that race (unless Cruz decided to run again) so he might jump in if he wins this cycle.

By then, TX would be a tilt R, tossup, or lean R state, so Beto would actually have an easier time winning then.

[Zaybay]

First debate is on the 31st in Dallas.

Can I just show up, or is it for like bourgeois types only?

If you go, you should totally record a video and post it.

[Zaybay]

He has a great chance, and is building enthusiasm and infrastructure, which is needed in the state. I say Cruz has the advantage, but it seems to be shrinking each week.

[Zaybay]

Beto is the truly a cool senator

https://twitter.com/jbillinson/status/1031181201191653376

[Zaybay]

If O'Rourke ends up doing very well this year I certainly hope he stays active in TX politics and runs for something else in the future. He'd actually have accomplished what countless overhyped TX Dems have failed at.

well, he would kinda have to, as a great result for Beto would be him beating Cruz.

[Zaybay]

Then finally a Mainstream Republican like Baker, Hogan, Sununu can step in and run for POTUS AND start rebuilding the Republican Party.

This will happen at the same time hell freezes over.

Wrong. It will happen sooner than later and after that the Democratic Party is finished for good (certainly the Sanders Clowns will be)

1. Baker, Hogan, and Sununu would need to be able to project power over the base by running in a presidential, or by winning a senate seat in their respective states. This will be almost impossible, except for Sununu, and even he is rather a more typical Republican than the moderates of Baker, Hogan, and Scott.

2. The Democratic Party will not be finished, they have too large of a base, and a growing one at that. Even if Sanders completely destroyed the party, they would still be able to rebuild and hold their 16-20 safe states.

3. If the Rs went moderate, then they would lose many far right voters, and more rural voters at that. And since the direction they would moderate would be on social issues, economics comes to be the battleground. This would give the Ds KY, WV, TN, MT, among other states, and start a new party system.

[Zaybay]

Im think Beto at 20%, Cruz at 20%, with 60% undecideds. It is Emerson.

[Zaybay]

Club for Growth and big money donors planning multi million dollar bailout of Cruz's flagging campaign:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1034541987087740930

Oligarchs covered in dogsweat for their boy Lyin' Ted.

........7 figures? 7. figures....... WHAT THE F*^*! They just have 7 figures worth of cash? And they hadnt done anything with it yet? And they're giving it to Cruz?!

Edit: Accidentally thought 7 figures was 8 figures, excuse my reaction