President Kerry and on...

[SPC]

November 2007:

Despite an endorsement from televangelist Pat Robertson, the Giuliani campaign has faced a barrage of media criticism in the wake of the indictment of Bernard Kerik. Due to increasingly poor poll numbers in the early states, Giuliani has shifted most of his resources into the Florida primary, where strategists perceive him to have a better chance. Meanwhile, Romney has been positioned to take advantage of this development the most, with Allen, Huckabee, and Santorum splitting the evangelical vote fairly evenly in Iowa and a massive lead over all opponents in New Hampshire, where only McCain and Paul have spent a considerable amount of time in a last-ditch effort to regain needed momentum.

Despite the supposed success of the troop surge, 2007 has had the highest number of American casualties since the initial invasion. President Kerry has announced the beginning of American withdrawal from the country, and has opened the possibility toward employing a similar strategy toward the War in Afghanistan.

Public opinion has increasingly become less concerned with foreign policy and more concerned with home prices, which have been declining since 2006. Despite this, economists insist that concerns about entering a recession are unfounded, as evidenced by record lows in unemployment and highs in the DJIA.

Pew Primary Poll:
National:
Giuliani 26%
Allen 17%
Romney 14%
McCain 13%
Huckabee 6%
Santorum 5%
Paul 4%

Iowa:
Romney 25%
Allen 20%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 10%
Santorum 7%
McCain 5%
Paul 5%

New Hampshire:
Romney 37%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 15%
Paul 11%
Allen 9%
Huckabee 1%
Santorum 1%

South Carolina:
Allen 23%
Romney 19%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 13%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 4%
Santorum 2%

[SPC]

December 2007:



...proved to be a very eventful month in American politics. In foreign policy, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto brought attention to the unstable political situation in Pakistan. Longtime ruler Pervez Musharraf had previously declared a state of martial law in the country, and some conspiracy theorists believe that Musharraf may have been behind the assassination of one of his political opponents. In response to the growing protests calling for an end to the Musharraf regime, Secretary Biden stated that Musharraf was "not a dictator," but should enter into negotiations with the opposition to bring back peace to the strife-torn nation. Days later, President Kerry issued stronger rhetoric, stating that the time has come for Musharraf to leave office and begin the transition process immediately.

In domestic news, President Kerry earned bipartisan support for his re-election campaign with endorsements from Senators Lincoln Chafee (IR-RI) and Chuck Hagel (R-NE). Both men attributed their endorsements to the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from the leading candidates on the Republican side, criticizing Kerry for being perceived as weak on the Iraq War, the Iranian nuclear program, and Pakistan's political crisis. Kerry also announced that he would have HUD Secretary Donovan and Treasury Secretary Reich draft a plan to allow debt relief for subprime mortgage holders, which has also drawn criticism from House Republicans but is shown to be modestly popular with likely voters.

On the eve of the Iowa caucus, Romney's lead has evaporated as social conservatives appear to be holding their noses for Allen's candidacy, although the possibility for a last minute surge by the Huckabee or Santorum campaigns is not out of the question.

Rasmussen National Primary Poll:
Allen 26%
Giuliani 20%
Romney 14%
McCain 8%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 4%
Santorum 3%

DMR Iowa Caucus Poll:
Allen 27%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 12%
Santorum 11%
Paul 9%
McCain 7%
Giuliani 2%

[SPC]

January 3, 2008:

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS: ALLEN 27.7% ROMNEY 24.1% HUCKABEE 14.5% PAUL 14.1% SANTORUM 8.1% MCCAIN 7.9% GIULIANI 3.7%

"I'd like to thank the good people of Iowa for delivering us victory tonight, and we will carry onward to New Hampshire, South Carolina, and take back America!"

"We got a silver medal, and that is more than any of us expected going into this campaign. Our national security cannot afford for us to be demoralized by a few minor obstacles."

"We ran the best campaign we could, but we fell short. However, our defeat does not mean that we will not continue to bring the message of faith and family values to the American people!"

New Hampshire Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Romney 32%
McCain 20%
Paul 13%
Giuliani 10%
Allen 9%
Huckabee 9%

[SPC]

Close But No Cigar...

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS: ROMNEY 33.0% MCCAIN 26.7% PAUL 15.9% HUCKABEE 8.9% ALLEN 8.0% GIULIANI 7.5%

After being narrowly upset in the Iowa caucuses, Mitt Romney was not about to let that happen again in New Hampshire. In the Saint Anselm College/ABC debate the Saturday before the primary, Romney and McCain sparred viciously, with Romney accusing McCain of being "John Kerry's fifth column" and McCain calling Romney a "Johnny-come-lately" to the conservative movement. Other candidates joined in in the fray, with Paul saying the GOP needs to move on from its "stale and moss-covered past," an implicit stab at McCain, and Romney challenging Huckabee to a $10,000 bet after Huckabee's accusation that Romney was pro-amnesty as Governor of Massachusetts.

Although McCain gained considerable momentum from Romney's debate stumbles, it was not quite enough to put him over the top. Despite this, McCain maintained in his concession speech that he had "McMentum" and that he would soldier on to win Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida.

Detroit News Poll: Romney 28% Allen 26% McCain 24% Huckabee 8% Paul 7% Giuliani 3%

Clemson Univesity Poll: Romney 24% Allen 23% McCain 17% Huckabee 12% Paul 11% Giuliani 1%

Pew Research National Primary Poll: Romney 22% Allen 18% McCain 15% Huckabee 13% Giuliani 10% Paul 9%

[SPC]

In the run-up to the Michigan primary, chances of a McCain comeback dissipated when McCain said that most of the jobs that have left Michigan "aren't coming back." Romney, a Michigan native, exploited this by promising to make one of his top priorities as President reviving Detroit's auto industry. Many attributed Romney's victory in the state to moderate voters leaving McCain's campaign and the candidate making a large ad buy in the state attacking Allen and McCain's Senate voting records. Allen, who had been largely absent from major news stories since his Iowa caucus victory two weeks ago, went on the offensive against Romney in the FOX News Debate at Myrtle Beach, SC, accusing the candidate of being too out-of-touch with the Average Joe to understand America's struggling economy.

Michigan Primary Results (99% Reporting):
Romney 39.2%
Allen 27.2%
McCain 15.0%
Paul 8.9%
Huckabee 6.5%
Giuliani 3.2%

Allen's debate performance gave him considerable momentum going into the South Carolina primary. He received the endorsements of Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) and former candidate Rick Santorum (R-PA), while Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) notably sat the race out, considered to be a bad sign for McCain's chances in the state.

South Carolina Primary Results (100% Reporting)
Allen 34.2%
Romney 20.2%
Huckabee 18.6%
McCain 17.8%
Paul 6.7%
Giuliani 2.3%

After poor performances in two must-win primaries, McCain announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, declining to make an endorsement. However, former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) announced his endorsement of Allen the Monday after the South Carolina primary, which some believe could play a pivotal role in the upcoming Florida primary, a winner-take-all contest with 50 delegates at stake.

Rasmussen Florida Poll: Allen 31% Romney 28% Giuliani 19% Huckabee 12% Paul 6%

NBC/WSJ National Poll: Allen 29% Romney 24% Giuliani 15% Huckabee 13% Paul 8%

[SPC]

I would appreciate more feedback, if anyone is still reading this.

[SPC]

FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS: ROMNEY 36.7% ALLEN 27.9% GIULIANI 17.5% HUCKABEE 14.3% PAUL 3.6%

Momentum from the Bush endorsement was not enough for Allen to overcome the barrage of attack ads from Romney's better funded campaign. The airwaves of all major Florida media markets were saturated with ominous voices detailing Allen's numerous votes for spending bills during the Bush and Kerry administrations. While Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) is said to have privately preferred Giuliani as the Republican candidate, he did not make a public endorsement to that effect, fearing the consequences of backing a candidate hopelessly stuck in third place in all polling prior to the primary. Giuliani announced his withdrawal the next day and, to most observers' surprise, endorsed Allen, calling him "our nation's best hope to win the War on Terror." Allen fired back at Romney during the Simi Valley debate for raising taxes as Governor of Massachusetts and for changing his positions on abortion and gun rights. Huckabee and Paul were asked few questions during the debate, although Paul did take a shot at Allen, asking how he could call himself a conservative while voting to "federalize education, approve a prescription drug boondoggle, and authorize the President to launch a trillion-dollar war?" Conservative activists have called for Huckabee and Paul to exit the race and prevent Romney from winning by virtue of a split conservative vote.

ABC/WaPo National Primary Poll: Romney 37% Allen 30% Huckabee 16% Paul 11%

FOX News Head-to-Heads: Kerry 44% Romney 43% Kerry 47% Allen 42%

Meanwhile in Washington, a bill providing for tax rebates for the lower and middle class as part of an economic stimulus passed both Houses of Congress with only minor opposition from some Republican members. President Kerry expressed hope that this legislation would be sufficient to circumvent the possibility of an economic downturn. In foreign policy, Kerry has expanded the drone program in North-West Pakistan in order to combat a recent surge in Taliban activity in that province.

[SPC]

Super Tuesday

Estimated Delegate Count:
Romney 606 (+466)
Allen 488 (+427)
Huckabee 71 (+65)
Paul 54 (+27)

While Mitt Romney did win a plurality of delegates for the day, mostly by sweeping delegate-rich winner-take-all contests in the Southwest and Northeast, he was unable to obtain a decisive victory over leading challenger George Allen. In the South, Allen scored several narrow victories over native son Mike Huckabee, leaving Huckabee with only his home state of Arkansas. In the caucus states, Allen prevailed despite high turnout from Mormons, evangelicals, and libertarian activists. The biggest surprise came in an incredibly narrow victory in Illinois, the last state to be called that evening.

Allen made clear in his speech from Kansas City, Missouri that he would ride his momentum all the way to St. Paul in August and Washington in November. Despite poor showings, both Huckabee and Ron Paul said that they would likewise continue their campaigns until a candidate has a majority of delegates, with both believed to be hoping for a brokered convention in which they can make a deal with one of the other candidates.

Reuters/Ipsos National Primary Poll:
Romney 34%
Allen 33%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 9%

[SPC]

February 2008:

Estimated Delegate Count:
Romney 688 (+82)
Allen 667 (+179)
Huckabee 100 (+29)
Paul 72 (+18)

The rest of the month of February made the race for the Republican nomination more contentious than ever, with Allen sweeping virtually every contest except the Kansas caucuses, where social conservatives brought Huckabee over the top, and the contests in DC and U.S. territories, where Romney obtained consolation prizes. While earlier it had looked like Romney could easily win the nomination by getting the Republican establishment to coalesce around his candidacy, analysts have noted that the remaining primaries and caucuses are taking place on unfavorable terrain for his candidacy, and it may take a game-changer to prevent Allen from taking the nomination.

PPP Ohio Poll: Romney 36% Allen 36% Huckabee 16% Paul 9%

PPP Texas Poll: Allen 46% Romney 27% Paul 13% Huckabee 12%

Rasmussen National Poll: Romney 38% Allen 37% Huckabee 9% Paul 7%

NBC/WSJ Head-to-Heads: Kerry 47% Allen 44% Kerry 50% Romney 44%

In foreign policy, the Pakistan situation became more complex as the anti-Musharraf Pakistan People's Party won the recent elections. President Kerry made a special trip to Islamabad in the aftermath of the elections in order to reach out to new Prime Minister Yousef Gillani.

In domestic issues, the Senate reauthorized amendments to FISA permitting warrantless wiretapping, which Kerry has said that he will sign, much to the dismay of civil libertarians.

[SPC]

March 2008:

After a last minute endorsement from Governor Rick Perry (R-TX), Allen swept the Texas primary and eeked out a narrow victory in Ohio. Although Romney obtained victories in Vermont and Rhode Island, they were not enough to overcome large delegate deficits in the two big contests of the night.

Texas Primary Results (99% Reporting) Allen 45.2% Romney 32.6% Huckabee 12.3% Paul 9.9%

Ohio Primary Results (100% Reporting) Allen 39.2% Romney 38.2% Huckabee 13.7% Paul 8.9%

Allen swept Mississippi the subsequent week, winning a majority of the vote in that contest.

Delegate Count (as of March 11, 2008)
Allen 877 (+210)
Romney 773 (+85)
Huckabee 100 (-)
Paul 75 (+3)

Facing increasing pressure from leading figures within the party to drop out, Romney announced "There are some people in the media who would like to see this end in a chaotic brokered convention. I assure you that, whatever the results of the primaries to come may be, I will do everything within my power to ensure that there is a nominee long before we get to St. Paul in August."

However, on March 17, Romney may have gotten the game changer he has needed for over a month...

Footage of Senator Allen from his 2006 re-election campaign referring to an Indian-American volunteer for opponent Harris Miller as "macaca" was anonymously leaked to major media outlets, creating a media firestorm. Allen has insisted that his remarks were ab-libbed and did not have racist undertones. However, outlets have highlighted Allen's mother's North African heritage, and the likelihood that Allen would be familiar with the word "macaca" as a North African slur used for darker-skinned people.

Talk radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity have attacked the media and Romney's campaign for "race-bating" the Republican frontrunner, and have urged remaining primary voters to vote for Allen in solidarity.

On the economic front, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 3/4% and approved loans to major banks, including JP Morgan Chase for the purpose of acquiring Bear Stearns. President Kerry has sought to reassure Americans not to fear a recession, saying that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong."

[SPC]

April 2008: Winning the Battle, Losing the War

In spite of several controversies surrounding Republican frontrunner George Allen, including the revelations that he kept a noose in his law office and hung a Confederate flag in his living room, public polling showed that Allen's lead in the Pennsylvania primary had only narrowed slightly. While some strategists, such as Karl Rove, have urged Romney to continue his campaign so that a new nominee undamaged by controversy could be selected at a brokered convention, others, such as Dick Morris and John Sununu, have suggested that the eventual Republican nominee cannot possibly win against an incumbent president with only two months to campaign, and that voters will forget about Allen's gaffes come November.

Weighing these factors in mind, Mitt Romney bowed out of the race on the Monday before the Pennsylvania primary, announcing, "a divided Republican Party cannot win in November, and we know in our heart of hearts that this country cannot survive another four years with John Kerry at the helm." His withdrawal speech stopped short of a full endorsement, although an endorsement was forthcoming later in the month when pressed for one in a radio interview.

Allen appeared to receive little bounce from his primary victory, a fact that has made Democrats confident that they will win in November, and might be able to win the House and cut into the Republicans' majority in the Senate.

CNN Opinion Research Poll:
Kerry 52%
Allen 43%

Amalgam of state polling*:

Kerry 264
Allen 121
Tossup 153

*Tossup states are either within the margin of error or have conflicting leaders in different polls

Meanwhile, in foreign affairs, General David Petraeus has urged the President to delay the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, as the security situation is still very delicate in the country. While Secretary Biden has privately suggested a three-state solution united under the umbrella of a federal system would be ideal to combat sectarian strife, Secretary White has cautioned against further interference into the Iraqi political system. President Kerry has thus far sided with Petraeus and White on this matter.

[SPC]

May 2008

In Congress, Speaker Blunt received embarrassment when a vote on the Farm Bill failed 202-227, largely due to the dissention of conservative Republicans. Later in the month, after lengthy negotiations with members of his own party, Blunt was able to pass a modified Farm Bill 226-198, on the condition that funding for the Food Stamp program would be divorced from the Farm Bill. The Farm Bill then advanced to the Senate, where Democrats, joined by Senator Chafee (IR-RI) have thus far successfully filibustered the measure. President Kerry has castigated Republicans for being so insensitive as to consider cutting funds for the Food Stamp program during uncertain economic times, alleging that they are tone-deaf to the needs of ordinary Americans. Congressional Republicans also faced criticism for sitting on a bill proposed by Barney Frank (D-MA) to provide mortgage relief to those affected by the subprime mortgage crisis.

In California, a ruling from the state Supreme Court made it the second state to legalize gay marriage, which has both excited gay rights activists and infuriated religious conservatives. President Kerry has not come out in favor of the decision, merely stating that he supports each state's power to decision on their own definition of marriage, while Senator Allen has come out in support of a proposed ballot initiative to overturn the Court's decision. The decision does not appear to have significantly affected the Presidential race, where the incumbent continues to boast leads in the high single digits.

[SPC]

June 2008

Conservatives everywhere are outraged by the Supreme Court's ruling in District of Columbia v. Heller, in which D.C.'s gun ban was ruled constitutional, since the Second Amendment does not confer an individual right to bear arms unconnected with service in the state militia. Justice John Paul Stevens wrote the decision for the 5-4 majority, with Scalia, Thomas, Kennedy, and O'Connor dissenting. Senator Allen, who has experienced a surge in fundraising since the decision was announced, has stated that he will appoint strict constructionists to the Court to "undo this monstrosity." President Kerry, however, refrained from commenting on the Court's opinion, merely opining that, "the dignity of the Supreme Court should not be subject to the whimsicality of a campaign."

In an effort to relieve Americans from record high gas prices, Congress passed legislation overturning the ban on offshore drilling. However, President Kerry vetoed the proposal on the grounds that overturning the ban would not provide the immediate relief that Americans need at this moment.

Pew Research Poll:
Kerry 50%
Allen 43%

[SPC]

July 2008

Congressional Republicans once again attempt to force the President's hand on the Bush tax cuts, only passing a bill providing for foreclosure relief that includes a provision making the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 permanent. President Kerry once again vetoes the legislation, accusing Republicans of "holding our middle-class hostage for the whims of the wealthy." Under the advice of Secretary Reich and Chairman Bernanke, President Kerry signs an executive order granting the Treasury the authority to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in order to avert financial catastrophe. Senator Allen tries to stake out a middle-ground on the issue, arguing that the authority was necessary but should not have been granted over the objections of Congress.

On the campaign trail, media outlets have obtained the leading names on Senator Allen's shortlist for running mates, including Senator Michael Steele (R-MD), former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA), Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Governor Jim Nussle (R-IA), and Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN). Ed Schultz recently came under criticism for suggesting that Steele was only on the shortlist out of "tokenism," a sentiment echoed albeit less explicitly by other liberal commentators. Unlike most names on the shortlist, Steele has actively expressed interest in being on the national ticket, sharing that he "would be honored to be selected".

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll:
Kerry 48%
Allen 42%
Barr 4%

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46%
Republicans 42%

[SPC]

August 2008: The Plot Thickens

Given that the Summer Olympics were scheduled for August 8-24, 2008, the Allen campaign determined it would be best strategically to make its running-mate announcement on the eve of the Republican National Convention. Some observers believe that this timing may have affected the selection process, given the events that followed.

On August 8, after growing speculation in the tabloids, Vice-President John Edwards admitted that he had been conducting an affair with staffer Rielle Hunter, but denied paternity over her illegitimate child. Edwards had long been virtually anonymous in the Kerry administration, so this revelation proved to be an additional albatross due to Edwards's presence. Kerry advisors had made plans for replacing Edwards from the ticket ever since Elizabeth Edwards's cancer diagnosis, but the President's excellent poll numbers had deterred any drastic moves on their part. Over the next few days, the campaign had to weigh the costs of an expedited vetting process for Vice-President versus maintaining a running mate embroiled in scandal. On August 10, Edwards made a public announcement that he would not stand for renomination as Vice-President. News media subsequently became saturated with speculation as to who would replace him, with the frontrunner for the position appearing to be Secretary of State Joe Biden.

In another part of the world, Russia launched an invasion of Georgia after an attempt by the latter to reestablish sovereignty over the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  President Kerry called upon the Russians to "respect the territorial integrity of the Georgian state" and "cease hostilities immediately," while Senator John McCain (R-AZ) declared that "we are all Georgians now." On August 13, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) thrashed at Kerry and Biden for "leading from behind" when France negotiated a ceasefire between Russia and Georgia, affirming that they were "leading the United States down the road to losing its leadership position in the world."

Several days of Michael Phelps-related news coverage later, news outlets flooded three mansions in Phoenix after it was revealed that Allen had selected McCain as his running mate. Many believe that the South Ossetia conflict tipped the balance toward foreign policy experience over economic gravitas in the extended vetting process, which may have worked against Romney or Nussle.

The keynote address in St. Paul was delivered by Senator Steele, urging Americans to vote for the Allen/McCain ticket if they were tired of economic stagnation and embarrassment in international relations. Other notable speeches were delivered by Romney, Governor Pawlenty, Speaker Blunt, former President Bush, Mayor Giuliani, and relatively unknown Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK). In his acceptance speech, Allen drew analogies to the 1980 election, and declared that "once again our party will unseat an incumbent president that has brought us to the precipice of another depression, and we will have morning in America again."

ABC News/Washington Post Poll
Allen 47%
Kerry 46%

Allen 226
Kerry 195

The traditional convention bounce, combined with the other news items of the month, had brought Allen into a very slight lead in the polls for the first time ever, as well as a slight advantage in the Electoral College. However, the Kerry campaign improvised a strategy to mitigate the damage. On the day after the RNC, the President unveiled his running-mate selection, a person who few, if any, observers were expecting.

[SPC]

September 2008: Kerry at Colonus

Although the first day of the Democratic National Convention at Denver, CO had to be cancelled to allow the President to monitor Hurricane Gustaf, only a FOX News analyst could call the remainder of the convention anything short of a resounding success. Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) delivered the keynote address, attacking the Republican ticket for its "myopic bellicosity" which would have gotten the United States entangled in a war with Russia last month, and praising President Kerry as "a fellow Vietnam veteran who knows how to win the War on Terror and overcome the obstructionism of our Congress." Other notable speeches were delivered by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM), Governor Eliot Spitzer (D-NY), former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA), Senator Lincoln Chafee (IR-RI), and Mayor Cory Booker (D-NJ). Former President Bill Clinton and Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) were originally scheduled to speak, but were unable to attend due to a concussion suffered by Senator Clinton a few days prior. Senator Obama's acceptance speech promising that "change is coming to America" was the most remembered speech of the convention, gaining even more acclaim than his 2004 keynote and leading some to declare that he had overshadowed the President. Post-convention polls showed that the Kerry/Obama campaign had more than overcome any damage from the month of August, with many posting double-digit leads for the incumbent.

However, events in the financial sector slowly evaporated the advantage that the President had built. Federal takeovers of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, a Federal Reserve bailout of AIG, and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers take their toll on the market, with President Kerry, Secretary Reich, and Chairman Bernanke declaring that a $700 billion rescue package may be necessary to avert a complete economic collapse. Intense negotiations in Washington led the President to suspend his campaign, a move that incurred criticism when he attempted to postpone the first presidential debate.

In retrospect, it may have been better had the President not reluctantly participated in the first debate. Allen, perhaps benefiting from low expectations set by his image as gaffe-prone and a loose cannon, delivered an excellent performance, eviscerating the administration for failing to take action on the housing bubble before it became an economic calamity and not doing more to stimulate the economy. Allen pointed out that "even John Maynard Keynes said that tax cuts are essential during a recession, and yet this President has rejected every tax cut that has reached his desk." Meanwhile, Kerry appeared sleep-deprived, visibly annoyed by having to be present, and at times seemed more interested in explaining the picayune details of economic and housing policy than proposing wider solutions. Post-debate polling by CNN revealed that 62% of viewed felt that Allen had won the debate while 29% felt that Kerry had won, the widest recorded margin for a presidential debate.

Despite desperate pleas from Kerry, Bernanke, Reich, Blunt, Pelosi, and Cantor, the House vote on TARP failed 193-240 due to substantial dissention from members of both parties. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its largest one-day drop in history, falling 778 points. Majority Leader McConnell vows to craft a more amenable plan in the Senate that can gain greater support in the House.

Pew Research National Poll:
Allen/McCain 48%
Kerry/Obama 43%

Allen/McCain 250
Kerry/Obama 155

Montana Senate Mason-Dixon: Rehberg 48% Baucus 45%

South Dakota Senate Rasmussen: Rounds 47% Herseth-Sandlin 46%

New Jersey Senate Rasmussen: Lautenberg 44% Zimmer 44%

[SPC]

October 2008: Channeling Harry Truman?

After the shock that the House rejection of the bailout provided to markets, the Senate passed a revised bank bailout 76-23. The House then approved the measure 250-184. However, passage of the bill did not assuage financial markets, which have continued their freefall into record lows for the decade. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke promised to cut interest rates significantly in order to reassure markets.

The vice-presidential debate was largely seen as a draw, with Senator Obama slightly beating expectations and Senator McCain frequently mentioning that his experience can make him a more effective resource for the president. President Kerry performed slightly better at the townhall debate, accusing congressional Republicans of having sabotaged middle-class tax cuts and mortgage relief that could have mitigated the financial crisis, while Allen seemed to get drawn up in clumsy guilt-by-association attacks between Kerry, Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), and Countrywide and between Obama and Bill Ayers. The final debate was largely perceived as a Kerry win, with the President touting the recent signing of the Status of Forces Agreement, which promised a withdrawal of American forces in Iraq within fifteen months, and his recent increased emphasis on drone attacks in Pakistan, while Allen accused the President of "putting American lives at risk for the sake of a campaign" and being complacent toward the Iranian nuclear program.

Facing large deficits in three Midwestern swing states he won four years ago, President Kerry has focused his campaigning almost exclusively on the state of Florida in hopes of pulling off an upset win. While almost all polling shows a modest Allen lead nationally, Democratic pundits remain confident that the polls are underestimating minority turnout, which they expect to increase with the first African-American to appear on a presidential ticket. While Allen and McCain have both told supporters not to get too comfortable since the race is "closer than the polls want you to believe," many believe that their choice of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey as final campaign stops contradicts this supposed "tempered optimism." The Allen campaign has also accused Obama, who has been campaigning much more zealously than Kerry himself, of race-baiting to scare ethnic voters in Florida and the Southwest into voting for the incumbent.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll:
Allen/McCain 48%
Kerry/Obama 44%

[SPC]

Did Tim Johnson die from his aneurysm or is he just retiring?

Tim Johnson is retiring since facing a tough re-election campaign against Mike Rounds was too daunting while trying to recover from a stroke. Other differences from ORL: Stevens was acquitted, John Boozman is running against Mark Pryor, Governor McCaskill looked doomed in her re-election bid, Jon Bruning beat Don Stenberg in the primary to succeed Hagel, Sununu lucked out since Shaheen decided to stay at Commerce rather than run for Senate, Diane Denish is in a tight race with Heather Wilson for Domenici's seat, and Jim Gilmore beat Tom Davis for the Republican nomination despite Allen and Warner's intervention.

[SPC]

Election Day/Night:

Democrats became optimistic that their predictions about election day turnout would pan out when the national exit poll came out, showing the two candidates tied at 49%.

7:00 PM EST Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, and South Carolina have been called for Allen, Vermont has been called for Kerry. Allen's home state of Virginia is too close to call. In the battle for the Senate, former Governor Mark Warner has won the Senate race, giving Democrats their first pickup of the night. The race between Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and businessman Bruce Lunsford is too close to call at present.

Allen 42
Kerry 3

7:30 PM EST West Virginia can now be called for Allen.

8:00 PM EST Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee can be called for Allen; Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Maryland, and Massachusetts can be called for Kerry; Connecticut, Florida, Maine's 2nd congressional district, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania are too close to call at present. Senate races in New Hampshire and New Jersey are too close to call. Congressman Kenny Hulshof has defeated Governor Claire McCaskill in Missouri, giving Republicans their first gubernatorial takeover of the night.

Allen 80
Kerry 55

8:30 PM EST Arkansas can now be called for Allen. All three of North Carolina's major contests are too close to call, as is Arkansas's Senate race.

9:00 PM EST Louisiana, Nebraska, Texas, and Wyoming can be called for Allen. New York and Rhode Island can be called for Kerry. Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Wisconsin are too close to call. We can now project that Governor Mike Rounds has defeated Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin to succeed Senator Tim Johnson, giving Republicans their first pickup in the Senate. Senate races in Colorado, Louisiana, and New Mexico are still too close to call.

Allen 137
Kerry 90

9:03 PM EST Senator John Sununu has won reelection over former Congressman Dick Swett.
9:06 PM EST Allen has won the state of Missouri
9:07 PM EST Allen has won the state of South Dakota.
9:21 PM EST Allen has won his home state of Virginia. Many were surprised that it took so long to call.
9:27 PM EST Senator Elizabeth Dole has won reelection over state Senator Kay Hagan.
9:43 PM EST Kerry has won the state of New Jersey

10:00 PM EST Kansas and Utah can be called for Allen. Iowa, Montana, and Nevada are too close to call. Senator Tom Harkin has won reelection over businessman Chris Reed. Governor Brian Schweitzer has won reelection over state Senator Roy Brown. The race between Senator Max Baucus and Congressman Denny Rehberg is too close to call.

Allen 175
Kerry 105

10:05 PM EST Kerry has won Connecticut.
10:13 PM EST Kerry has won Michigan.
10:23 PM EST Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson has defeated Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish in New Mexico's Senate race. Many believe Denish's ties to the Richardson administration may have sunk her chances.
10:28 PM EST Senator Mary Landrieu has lost her reelection bid to state Treasurer John Kennedy. Republicans only need one more net pickup in order to obtain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.
10:38 PM EST Allen has won North Carolina.
10:39 PM EST Allen has won Montana.
10:41 PM EST Allen has won New Hampshire.
10:53 PM EST Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has won a surprisingly tight battle for reelection.

11:00 PM EST Idaho and North Dakota can be called for Allen. California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington can be called for Kerry. Washington's gubernatorial election is too close to call.

Kerry 206
Allen 204

11:04 PM EST Kerry has won the state of Nevada.
11:27 PM EST Mayor Pat McCrory has defeated Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue to become the first Republican governor of North Carolina in 16 years.
11:36 PM EST Allen has won the state of Arizona.
11:42 PM EST Allen has won the state of Florida. An entertaining exchange between Bob Shrum and Wolf Blitzer occurs on CNN, in which the former insists that the call is premature.
11:49 PM EST Allen has won the state of Ohio. Cheering at the Allen campaign headquarters starts to get louder, while nervous disappointment takes hold at the Kerry campaign.

Allen 261
Kerry 211

12:11 AM EST Allen has won the state of Wisconsin. All major networks declare Allen the next President. President Kerry has thus far not conceded the race.
12:29 AM EST Allen has won the state of Minnesota.
12:34 AM EST Kerry has won the state of New Mexico.
12:39 AM EST Allen has won the state of Colorado.
12:48 AM EST After lengthy debate at the Kerry camp, the President finally delivers a concession phone call to Senator Allen. President Kerry then delivers his concession speech, thanking his supporters for putting up a good fight and wishing the next President luck in dealing with the economic crisis.
1:00 AM EST Allen has won the state of Alaska.
1:15 EST Senator Allen delivered his victory speech, thanking his supporters for doing what many thought was impossible and giving new leadership to a country that desperately needs it.

With most Americans tuning out, full results for Iowa, Maine's 2nd congressional district, and Pennsylvania as well as the Senate races in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, New Jersey, and Montana and the Washington gubernatorial race will have to wait for tomorrow morning.

[SPC]

I want to cry! Kerry is just another Jimmy Carter

If nothing else, the next four years should be rather amusing.

[SPC]

Full results:

President:

Senator George F. Allen/Senator John S. McCain 66,100,091 50.3% 322 EV
President John F. Kerry/Senator Barack H. Obama 62,883,522 47.8% 216 EV

Senate:

Republicans 60 (+4)
Democrats 38 (-4)
Independent Republican 1 (-)
Independent 1 (-)

The Senate results did provide some post-election suspense. With Governor Napolitano appointing Bruce Babbitt as a seat-warmer for Vice-President-elect McCain and overseas ballots still left that could affect the outcomes in Arkansas and New Jersey, the filibuster-proof majority that Republicans obtained was not immediately certain. Many believe this to be the reason why Senator Chafee survived the vote on his expulsion from the GOP Caucus as retaliation for supporting President Kerry. Senators Pryor and Lautenberg eventually conceded their races in mid-December to Congressman Boozman and former Congressman Zimmer.

House:

Republicans 257 (+12)
Democrats 178 (-12)

Republicans picked up seats in Alabama, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Tennessee, while Democrats only picked up seats in Vermont, Massachusetts, and New York.

Governor:

Republicans 33 (+2)
Democrats 17 (-2)

[SPC]

November 2008-January 2009: Tales from the Lame Duck Period

Despite his loss in the recent election, outgoing President Kerry did not cease his efforts to fight the ongoing economic crisis. AIG was given another bailout to keep afloat. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that a policy of quantitative easing in order to help the US economy get out of stagnation, reducing interest rates to a quarter of one percent. When the Big Three auto companies requested a $15 billion bailout to help them restructure, Speaker Blunt was only able to get the bill passed 203-203, with over four-fifths of his caucus dissenting. The measure failed in the Senate 54-35 due to an inability to obtain the 60 votes required for cloture. Acting out of urgency, President Kerry gives the auto companies a $17 billion loan to avoid bankruptcy.

Gay rights activists were upset by the passage of Proposition 8 in California, and vowed to contest the law in federal court.

In the transition into the next Administration, President-elect Allen unveiled his choices for the Cabinet:

Secretary of State: Mitt Romney
Secretary of Defense: Condoleeza Rice
Secretary of the Treasury: Tim Geithner
Attorney General: Kelly Ayotte
Secretary of the Interior: Sarah Palin
Secretary of Agriculture: Edward Schaffer
Secretary of Commerce: Carlos Gutierrez
Secretary of Labor: John Boehner
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Mike Leavitt
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Alphonso Jackson
Secretary of Transportation: Kay Bailey Hutchison
Secretary of Energy: Joe Barton
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Tommy Franks
Secretary of Homeland Security: Michael Chertoff

The only nominees to receive significant opposition from Senate Democrats were Romney, Geithner, and Palin. Liberal commentators criticized Romney's pick as Secretary of State as a "cynical attempt at a consolation prize for the man who almost won the nomination," while New York Fed Chairman Timothy Geithner's tax records drew criticism from Democrats as the "height of hypocrisy". Governor Palin's firing of a state trooper for personal reasons came under attack, and her evasive answers during the Senate hearing earned mockery throughout the media. Nevertheless, Romney, Geithner, and Palin were confirmed 75-25, 69-31, and 63-37, respectively.

Meanwhile, Allen's resignation from his Senate seat set off another controversy. At first, Governor Jerry Kilgore floated the possibility of appointing retiring Senator John Warner to Allen's seat, fueling speculation that Kilgore was interested in the seat himself. However, Warner delivered a Shermaneque statement declaring that his time in the Senate was "complete." State Attorney General Robert McDonnell was speculated to be a likely candidate for the seat, but McDonnell withdrew his name from consideration and reaffirmed his intention to run for Governor. Kilgore finally settled on former Secretary of the Navy James Webb for the appointment, which elicited ire from conservative activists unhappy with his history of endorsing Democratic candidates. Later, an FBI investigation revealed that both Kilgore and McDonnell had received thousands of dollars in gifts from supplement manufacturer Star Scientific, and some speculate that this may have been a motivating factor for McDonnell's refusal of the Senate seat.

[SPC]

February 2009

In order to combat the recession, House Republicans passed a stimulus plan providing for cutting income taxes across the board, lowering the highest contribution to 28%, providing rebate checks for all Americans equating to the proposed change in tax rates, and $100 billion in appropriations. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) vowed to filibuster any such legislation in the Senate, arguing that it is "irresponsible to give more money to the rich when we have a trillion dollar deficit." Republican holdouts Chafee, Specter, and Webb prevented Republicans from invoking cloture, thus requiring Majority Leader McConnell to come to the negotiating table. To secure passage, McConnell conceded a payroll tax holiday for those making under $50,000/year. This modified stimulus passed 60-40, with Senators Bayh (D-IN), Chafee (IR-RI), and Webb (R-VA) crossing party lines. Many observers believe that the increasing probability of a primary rematch with former Congressman Pat Toomey (R-PA) intimidated Senator Specter (R-PA) to ultimately sign along with the legislation. After the reconciliation process, President Allen signed the stimulus package. Former Congressman Baron Hill (D-IN) is said to be considering a primary challenge against Senator Bayh for his stance on the tax issue.

[SPC]

March-April 2009

President Allen made an announcement of his plan to improve the War in Afghanistan, consisting of a troop surge into the country as well as greater foreign aid to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Privately, Secretary Rice is said to be negotiating with Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki for a postponement of the withdrawal timetable from Iraq, eliciting criticism from members of both parties.

General Motors and Chrystler file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Many analysts blame the President for not offering the auto industry a second bailout. President Allen stated that it "would be unfair to ask American taxpayers to pay for the mistakes of Detroit."

After poor internal polling numbers, Senator Bayh announces that he will not seek re-election next year. Republicans are very delighted by this news, as they see potential for even further Senate gains in Indiana as well as Arkansas, Connecticut, Kentucky, Nevada, North Dakota, and minority leader Tom Daschle's seat in South Dakota.

Justice Sandra Day O'Connor announces that she will be retiring after the current session of the Supreme Court is over. President Allen promises to announce his nominee in early May.

[SPC]

May-June 2009

To fill Justice O'Connor's vacancy, President Allen announced his selection of former Texas Solicitor General Rafael Cruz as his nominee. While the confirmation process was predicted to be a cakewalk due to the composition of the Senate, the nominee's history of taking controversial positions as well as his condescending attitude toward the Senate Judiciary Committee during the confirmation hearing. In an embarrassment to the President, the nominee was only confirmed by a 51-49 vote, with no Democratic support and numerous Republicans led by Arlen Specter (R-PA) voting against the nominee.

In foreign policy, a rescue effort on behalf of a US ship captured by Somali pirates ended successfully. After President Ahmadinejad of Iran is accused of rigging the recent Iranian elections, members of the Green movement take to the streets in support of failed candidate Mir-Hossain Mousavi. Secretary of State Mitt Romney announced that the United States "will not tolerate" the supression of peaceful protests by the Iranian regime. President Allen has said that the possibility of a tactical strike against the regime is "on the table," eliciting substantial criticism from liberal activists.