President Kerry and on...

[SPC]

July 2009

With clashes between the Green Movement and the Iranian government becoming increasingly violent, the Administration has increased American involvement in the conflict. While Secretary Rice advised that Allen consult the United Nations before launching military action in the region, Vice-President McCain and UN Ambassador John Bolton convinced the President that it would send a message to the rest of the world that America was "leading from behind." On July 16, President Allen announced that the United States would be enforcing a no-fly zone over Iran, earning ire for a perceived return to the unilateralism of the Bush administration. While troops on the ground are not currently being used, Secretary Rice has refused to rule out the possibility. Former Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) has called for Allen and McCain's impeachments, while Congressmen Ron Paul (R-TX), Walter Jones (R-NC), Mike Michaud (D-ME), and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) have introduced a bill blocking all funding for enforcing the no-fly zone. On the other hand, Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY), perceived by many to be the Democratic frontrunner for the 2012 election, has staked out a hawkish position on the issue, stating "so long as no American lives are lost, it is our responsibility to protect Iranian civilians from being massacred by the Ahmadinejad regime."

Pew Research: Do you support the U.S.'s decision to launch air strikes on Iran?
Approve 50%
Disapprove 37%

[SPC]

August 2009:

President Allen encurred criticism when the "Cash-for-Clunkers" program, advocated to assist what remains of the American auto industry, ran out of money within days. Despite an insurrection among the more conservative members of the Republican caucus, Congress was able to pass an extension of funding for the program. However, the Allen administration has cited the turnaround in employment numbers as a sign that their recovery program is working.

Veteran Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) passed away, setting up a special election to occur in a few months. While many members of their congressional delegation have expressed interest, including Stephen Lynch, Ed Markey, Barney Frank, and former Congressman Jim Ogonowski, most observers believe that former President Kerry's expressed desire to return to the Senate would make him the prohibitive frontrunner if he ultimately decides to run.

[SPC]

September-October 2009:

In foreign affairs, the Iranian conflict has only escalated since American intervention commenced last summer. What started as peaceful protests evolved into armed conflict, with members of the Green Movement having virtually vanished from the streets of Tehran. Opposition-held areas consist mostly of Kurdish- and Baluch-majority areas in the northwest and southeast of the country, respectively. The Iranian and Russian governments have accused the opposition of being pawns of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who have provided weapons to the opposition.

In retaliation for the American intervention, Hezbollah has intensified their rocket campaign against Israel and the al-Badr Organization has withdrawn support for the al-Maliki government, leading to the highest number of casualities since 2007. President Allen has sought to use the increased violence as a pretense for renegotiating the Status of Forces Agreement agreed to in 2008, but al-Maliki has thus far refused to allow an extension of American presence in Iraq beyond 2011.

In domestic news, former President Kerry ultimately passed on a comeback bid for the Senate seat previously held by Ted Kennedy, setting off a grueling primary between Congressman Stephen Lynch and Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, an insurgent liberal challenger. While some Republicans hope that the rift in the Democratic primary could help Ogonowski in the general election, President Allen's sinking approval ratings and the Democratic lean of the state make this a remote possibility. More concerning for Republicans are recent polling numbers in New Jersey, where Governor Corzine holds a slim lead over U.S. Attorney Chris Christie despite poor job performance ratings, and Allen's home state of Virginia, where the gifts scandal involving outgoing Governor Kilgore and Attorney General McDonnell have left the latter in a double-digit deficit against state Senator Creigh Deeds in his gubernatorial bid.

[SPC]

November 2009

NEW JERSEY: CORZINE 45.5%, CHRISTIE 44.8%, DAGGETT 9.8%                                        VIRGINIA: DEEDS 50.8%, MCDONNELL 49.0%

Victories in off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia made Democrats optimistic about their chances in the 2010 midterms. Governor-elect Creigh Deeds, who pulled off a closer-than-expected win in the President's home state, has achieved superstar status among the party base for his strong repudiation of the current administration's "obsession with trickle-down economics and foreign adventurism when we're facing the worst economy since the Great Depression." Although administration officials such as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner have pointed out that GDP has grown in the third quarter and unemployment has fallen to 9.0%, the public has demanded a faster recovery, as neither the stimulus nor the Cash-for-Clunkers program have lived up to expectations.

[SPC]

Did Warren or Lynch win Kerry's senate seat? (or did that not happen yet ITL?)

Kerry's seat was won by Capuano in 2005. IRL, the primary for Kennedy's seat was in December 2009.

Did Warren or Lynch win Kerry's senate seat? (or did that not happen yet ITL?)

In my opinion, Ed Markey would still run and win Kerry's seat, in the special election.

Of course, there would be a Republican Governor (Mitt Romney) who would have appointed a Republican Interim Senator.

Patrick was only able to make an interim appointment because the Legislature granted him that power. They would have been unwilling to do the same for Romney.

Markey would probably have been less likely to sacrifice his seniority in the House for a promotion had he thought a Democratic majority was imminent. Thus I don't think he would have run for Kennedy's seat [SPOILER ALERT], since there is a good chance of the Democrats winning the House next year[/SPOILER ALERT]. As for Kerry's seat, while the Republicans held the majority in 2005, it was still early enough in President Kerry's term for Democratic gains to be within the realm of possibility.

[SPC]

December 2009: Another Boston Tea Party?

Political observers across the nation were shocked when little-known Harvard Law professor Elizabeth Warren defeated veteran Congressman Stephen Lynch by a 59%-41% margin for the party's nomination for the late Ted Kennedy's former Senate seat. The political upset was helped by a late endorsement from former vice-presidential nominee and Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) as well as support from self-styled "Tea Party" activists such as Markos Moulitsas and Jerome Armstrong, who considered Lynch's centrist views on social issues to be unacceptable. Republican strategists believe that Warren is a lightweight and would be easier to defeat in a general election in spite of the political climate.

In Washington, both Houses of Congress passed legislation repealing both the estate tax and the capital gains tax on Christmas Eve, a move that was met with widespread criticism. President Allen has asked Congress to expedite the reconciliation process to "allow our broken tax system to be fixed as soon as possible."

A potential terrorist attack was thwarted by an airline passenger in which Nigerian national Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab attempted to detonate an explosive embedded in his underwear. The suspect, believed to be connected to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, cited the United States' attack on Iran as the motivating factor for his action. Secretary Chertoff has used the incident as an impetus to place full-body scanners in all American airports and train stations. Civil liberties activists have condemned this move as the next step toward an American police state, while conservatives hold that preventing another terrorist attack is worth the minor inconvenience.

Massachusetts Senate Poll (PPP): Ogonowski 48% Warren 47%

Generic Ballot (USA Today/Gallup): Republicans 48% Democrats 45%

Allen Job Approval (FOX News): Approve 47% Disapprove 45%

[SPC]

January 2010

In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act in Citizens United vs FEC, stating that corporate contribution limits were not an infringement of the First Amendment. Justice Stevens issued the majority opinion, concurred by Sotomayor, Souter, Ginsberg, and Breyer, while Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, and Cruz joined a dissenting opinion. While the decision avoided embarrassment for Vice-President McCain, President Allen condemned the decision in his State of the Union Address as "opening the floodgates to politicians in Washington avoiding the wrath of their own voters."

Ben Bernanke was reconfirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, despite objections that his program of quantitative easing has not been of a great enough magnitude to stimulate the economy.

In Massachusetts, the political environment overcame the inexperience of the candidate when Warren achieved a nine-point victory over Ogonowski. While polling had the two candidates neck-and-neck for most of the campaign, many believe that voters responded negatively to Ogonowski's last minute attack on Warren's use of her Indian heritage on a college application.

In the Senate, embattled Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) announced that he would not seek re-election and endorsed Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for the seat, severely diminishing Republican chances of a pickup with Congressman Rob Simmons. Byron Dorgan also announced his retirement decision (D-ND), setting up a race between Congressman Duane Sand and former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp.

[SPC]

February-March 2010

Elections in Iraq resulted in a victory for the Iraqi National Movement led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, with the Shia Islamist National Iraqi Alliance finishing second and the ruling State of Law coalition finishing a close third. Incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has thus far refused to accept the election results, with all sides accusing each other of fraud. The Maliki regime has accused the victorious Allawi of being a puppet of the United States, which has targeted Maliki due to his pro-Mullah stance in the Iranian conflict. While interfactional violence has increased in response to al-Maliki's seizure of power, American forces have been left in the difficult position of backing a government that is ostensibly opposed to their presence in the region.

Domestically, Congress approved President Allen's tax plan and budget, which critics have said is a "return to the failed trickle-down economics of the 1980s." Particularly concerning was Speaker Roy Blunt's response to criticisms that the budget would cut funds to Social Security and Medicare, that Congress had to "pass the budget to find out what's in it," which received ridicule from pundits at MSNBC. Secretary Geithner has pointed to improving economic indicators as evidence that the administration's stimulus policies have been beneficial for the economy.

[SPC]

April-May 2010: Shakedown Street

The most memorable event of April (and perhaps the entire calendar year) had to be the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, in which an explosion on a British Petroleum oil rig killed 11 workers and caused oil to rapidly leak throughout the Gulf of Mexico. The live camera that BP assembled to record the efforts to stop the spill only proved to be an embarrassment for the company. While environmentalists urged that British Petroleum be punished for their poor safety requirements on the rig, President Allen committed a major gaffe by apologizing to British Petroleum for environmentalists' urging for a "shakedown" of the company. Democrats have referred to this incident as "Allen's Katrina" and believe it merely highlights the administration's beholdenness to the oil industry.

May proved to be a difficult month to be an incumbent in Washington. In Pennsylvania, former Congressman Pat Toomey prevailed 53-47 over Senator Arlen Specter in the Republican primary despite endorsements from President Allen, Majority Leader McConnell, and Majority Whip Santorum. High ranking Republicans believe that Toomey will be less prepared for a general election with Auditor General Jack Wagner. Similarly, Bill Halter won an upset victory over Senator Blanche Lincoln for the right to face off in a rematch against Lt. Governor Jim Holt. Senator Mongiardo of Kentucky proved more adept at fighting off a primary challenge from Attorney General Jack Conway. In Ohio, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher prevailed over the more moderate Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner for the open Senate seat, while in North Carolina, Congressman Bob Etheridge prevailed in a three-way primary against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and state Senator Cal Cunningham to challenge Senator Burr in the general election. With Republicans forced to play defense in several competitive states and losing many opportunities in Democratic-held seats due to poor recruitment, their chances of holding on to a filibuster-proof majority look slim.

In light of the stalemate that has prevailed between the Iranian government and opposition forces, Secretary Romney pushed for the United Nations to adopt tougher sanctions against the Iranian regime, a move that was vetoed by China, Russia, and Germany. The perceived shift of the administration's attitude from protection of protesters to regime change is believed to have caused a backlash among the other UN member states, causing the United States to act virtually unilaterally (with the exception of Saudi and Qatari armaments) in their support for the Iranian opposition.

[SPC]

June-July 2010: Fixing a Leak

Commander of the NATO war in Afghanistan Stanley McCrystal was dismissed by President Allen after a Rolling Stone interview with the General was published in which the General seemed dismissive of the perceived lack of a coherent strategy coming from the administration. McCrystal in particular characterized Vice-President McCain as being zealous to micromanage the foreign policy of the administration.

PFC Bradley Manning was arrested after the revelation that the private had leaked hundreds of thousands of classified documents to the site Wikileaks, including a video of a July 2007 airstrike in Baghdad. Senator and likely 2012 contender Hillary Clinton was quick to come to the administration's defense, calling Manning's actions "treasonous" and "deserving of swift punishment." Clinton's comments only further support the accusations of liberal Democrats that the Senator is too hawkish to pose a desirable alternative to the President.

British Petroleum capped the problematic oil well in the Gulf Coast after 86 days of repairs and millions of dollars worth of negative publicity.

In election news, Republicans received a bit of good luck when North Carolina Senate nominee Bob Etheridge was caught on tape grabbing a student who asked the Representative a question. DSCC chair Patty Murray (D-WA) said that she does not believe the incident will effect the election once voters find out about Senator Burr's record.

The death of longtime Senator Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia set in motion a process for a special election in November in which Governor Joe Manchin of West Virginia will vie for the seat.

[SPC]

August-September 2010

The Tea Party wave claimed more casualities in primaries these months. 2006 candidate Ned Lamont defeated Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for the Senate nomination in Connecticut, Denver Public Schools superintendent Michael Bennet defeated Senator Ken Salazar for the gubernatorial nomination in Colorado, and billionaire Jeff Greene defeated CFO Alex Sink for the gubernatorial nomination in Florida. Last minute endorsements from Senators Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) may have proven instrumental to the upstarts' victories.

Both parties lost their most senior Senators in a period of six weeks as Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) was killed in a plane crash. 2008 opponent Mark Begich has entered the open race in circumstances that ironically resemble his father's death in 1972, while interim Lt. Governor Craig Campbell is the frontrunner for Republicans, after both Secretary Palin and Governor Parnell passed on the race.

While economic numbers have been improving, the unemployment rate remains at a high 8.7%. Chairman Bernanke has announced that the Federal Reserve will start buying government debt, and speculation runs high that he may also announce another round of quantitative easing.

Susquehanna (PA Sen): Wagner 45% Toomey 42%

Des Moines Register (IA Sen): Grassley 50% Culver 42%

Insider Advantage (GA Gov): Barnes 42% Deal 42%

Suffolk (IL Gov): Madigan 43% Topinka 37%

 

[SPC]

Election Day 2010: Shellacking

Alaska Senate (Special):
Mark Begich 49%
Craig Campbell 45%

Arizona Senate:
Janet Napolitano 53%
J.D. Hayworth 43%

Arkansas Senate:
Bill Halter 51%
Jim Holt 48%

Colorado Senate:
John Hickenlooper 58%
Jane Norton 41%

Connecticut Senate:
Ned Lamont 56%
Rob Simmons 43%

Indiana Senate:
Baron Hill 49%
John Hostettler 45%

Iowa Senate:
Chuck Grassley 52%
Chet Culver 45%

Kentucky Senate:
Dan Mongiardo ~50.1%
Trey Grayson ~49.9%

Louisiana Senate:
John Breaux 51%
David Vitter 48%

Missouri Senate:
Claire McCaskill 52%
Sarah Steelman 46%

New Hampshire Senate:
Jeanne Shaheen 55%
Charlie Bass 42%

North Carolina Senate:
Richard Burr 56%
Bob Etheridge 43%

North Dakota Senate:
Heidi Heitkamp 54%
Duane Sand 46%

Ohio Senate:
Lee Fisher 53%
Rob Portman 47%

Pennsylvania Senate:
Jack Wagner 56%
Pat Toomey 42%

South Dakota Senate:
Tom Daschle 51%
Kristi Noem 49%

Virginia Senate:
Tim Kaine 54%
Virgil Goode 39%

Republicans 52 (-7)
Democrats 46 (+7)
Independent Republican 1
Independent 1

House
Democrats 235 (+57)
Republicans 200 (-57)

Democrats picked up seats in a whopping 26 states, while the only Republican pickup was retiring Congressman Bart Gordon of Tennessee.

Governor

Arizona Governor:
Terry Goddard 56%
Jan Brewer 43%

Colorado Governor:
Bob Beauprez 58%
Michael Bennet 40%

Florida Governor:
Charlie Crist 54%
Jeff Greene 44%

Illinois Governor:
Lisa Madigan 57%
Judy Baar Topinka 39%

Iowa Governor:
Tom Vilsack 49%
Jim Nussle 47%

Maine Governor:
Mike Michaud 39%
Chandler Woodcock 37%
Barbara Merill 16%

Michigan Governor:
Virg Bernero 55%
Pete Hoekstra 43%

Nevada Governor:
Rory Reid 58%
Jim Gibbons 33%

New Mexico Governor:
Gary King 55%
Susana Martinez 44%

Ohio Governor:
Ted Strickland 54%
John Kasich 43%

Oregon Governor:
John Kitzhaber 50%
Ron Saxton 46%

Pennsylvania Governor:
Bob Casey 59%
Tom Corbett 41%

Rhode Island Governor:
Sheldon Whitehouse 50%
John Robitaille 42%

Texas Governor:
Rick Perry 48%
Bill White 47%

Wisconsin Governor:
Tom Barrett 51%
Mark Green 48%

Democrats 28 (+10)
Republicans 22 (-10)

[SPC]

Hows the Florida Senate race shaping up?

Senator Betty Castor won 15 points over the relatively obscure state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

[SPC]

November 2010: Flight of the Valkyries

The Republicans' disasterous midterm performance elicited a response from President Allen, in which he took the blame for losing the House and a supermajority in the Senate. Allen attributed the losses to focusing too much on deregulation and supply-side economics ("We got the message from the American people loud and clear...") and pledged to support a $400 billion economic stimulus targeted at the middle-class. Allen sat down with Speaker-elect Pelosi (D-CA) and Majority Leader McConnell to discuss policy.

In the Senate, a surprising turn of events occured in the minority leadership elections, when Minority Whip Harry Reid (D-NV) announced his candidacy for Minority Leader, followed shortly thereafter by Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) declaring his intention to seek the Whip position. This was considered a surprising move for a man who many anticipated would seek the Presidency. Later that day Minority Leader Daschle (D-SD) announced his retirement from Senate leadership. Rumor from Capitol Hill has it that Daschle was forced out, although both Reid and Daschle's Senate offices have denied this.

Former Kerry cabinet Secretaries Joe Biden (D-DE), Howard Dean (D-VT), and outgoing Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) became the first men to enter the race for the Democratic nomination in 2012, although all are viewed as longshots to win over the frontrunner, Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY).

Democratic Primary Poll (Marist):
Senator Hillary Clinton 29%
Former Secretary of State Joe Biden 13%
Senator Barack Obama 12%
Senator Tom Daschle 10%
Former HHS Secretary Howard Dean 6%
Senator Russ Feingold 5%
Former President John Kerry 5%
Senator Evan Bayh 2%

President Allen Approval (CNN):
Approve 48%
Disapprove 50%

[SPC]

December 2010-January 2011:

Closing out the previous year was the announcement from Attorney General Ayotte that she would challenging the ruling declaring Don't Ask Don't Tell to be unconstitutional. Leading Republicans support this decision, as they believe that making such a drastic change to military policy in a time of war could drastically harm morale. Democratic presidential candidates (which now officially includes outgoing Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle) have called for the Administration to stand by the lower court decision and allow homosexuals to openly serve in the military.

In other national security news, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange was arrested in London on rape charges in Sweden. Administration opponents believe that this may be American retribution for the leaks of classified diplomatic documents by Wikileaks last year. Secretary Dean in particular has made transparency a main theme of his second primary campaign.

The nation experienced tragedy in the New Year when a lone gunman shot 18 individuals at a Tuscon meet-and-greet sponsored by Representative Randy Graf (R-AZ). Six fatalities occured from the incident, and Graf remains in critical condition after suffering a gunshot wound to the head. Speaking at a fundraiser, Senator Obama encountered heated criticism after blaming the incident on "inflammatory rhetoric" from people "clinging to their guns and religion." On the other hand, President Allen received accolades for a moving speech that condemned the violence and urged bipartisanship in this difficult time. Newly-elected Speaker Pelosi announced that she hoped to force the Republican-controlled Senate to vote on a renewal of the Assault Weapons Ban as recently as February, although the narrow Democratic majority makes even passage in a House a longshot.

In foreign policy, President Allen announced that 500 U.S. military advisors would be sent to Cairo to assist the security situation of the regime led by General Hosni Mubarak. In response to the toppling of longtime ruler Ben Ali of nearby Tunisia, thousands of Egyptians believed by Western media to be associated with the Muslim Brotherhood have taken to the street in protest of Mubarak's rule, with intermittent violent clashes with the Egyptian armed forces. Vice-President McCain has called Egypt "merely the latest front of the War on Terror."

[SPC]

February 2011: From the Halls of Montezuma...

The United States intervention to save the Mubarak regime encountered condemnation both domestically and abroad. The House of Representatives narrowly passed a resolution stating that funding would not be provided for any additional ground troops in Egypt, although the measure appears dead on arrival in the Senate. Although the Egyptian military successfully cleared Tahrir Square earlier in the month, the protest movement has evolved into a moderate-level insurgency in many regions, especially the Sinai Peninsula, where the Mubarak regime has completely lost control to local Islamist organizations. Prime Minister Netanyahu has threatened a re-invasion of the Sinai Peninsula unless Mubarak can reassert control of the region. Meanwhile, Egypt's instability has promoted other insurgencies in the region, including in Libya and Yemen.

Domestically, Speaker Pelosi has condemned President Allen's budget as "imposing austerity on the American people" and has refused to allow a vote unless projected cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are reduced.

Congressmen Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and freshman Alan Grayson (D-FL) have called for a investigation into the death of Border Patrol agent Brian Terry from weapons that may have been involved with Operation Fast and Furious, a controversial program in which the ATF sought to track the flow of guns to Mexican drug cartels. Attorney General Ayotte has thus far refused to testify on the matter.

[SPC]

March 2011: ...to the Shores of Tripoli

Protests against the Gaddafi regime escalated into a full-blown civil war after the government violently attempted to supress protests, with France, Italy, and Great Britain quickly recognizing a rebel government composed of exiles established at Benghazi. When loyalist troops advanced toward Benghazi to supress the rebellion, the European countries moved for the United Nations to establish a no-fly-zone over the country. With advice from Vice-President McCain, Secretaries Romney and Wolfowitz, and Ambassador Bolton, President Allen ascertained that failing to act quickly would risk setting a precedent for America "leading from behind." Thus, the United States began a bombing campaign of loyalist strongholds in advance of the vote at the United Nations. While China and Russia doomed the UN resolution by exercising their veto power, the member nations of NATO pledged to lend assistance to the mission in Libya.

The intervention in Libya left the administration in a quandary, as many domestic critics pointed out the inconsistency of providing military support for one authoritarian regime fighting an insurgency while backing an insurgency in a neighboring regime. Secretary Romney sought to rectify this situation with an emergency diplomatic visit to Cairo. Romney was able to broker a peace between the Mubarak regime and key Egyptian rebel groups, in which Mohamed el-Baradei would be appointed Prime Minister and free and supervised elections would be held early next year. The agreement did not satisfy Islamist rebels, who were largely excluded from the negotiation tables.

Much to the public consternation of the Egyptian military, Israel had begun a bombing campaign of the Sinai Peninsula. In response, Egyptian forces swiftly reoccupied the region, routing the Islamist insurgents but violating the peace treaty in the process. In order to defuse the situation, the Egyptian military quickly yielded control to civilian authorities who had been kicked out the previous month.

While the intervention provided a slight bump to the President's approval ratings, the Democratic opposition remained divided on the issue. Predictably, Dean as well as recently announced candidates Grayson and Feingold condemned the bombing of Libya as a blatant violation of international law, while Bayh, Biden, and Clinton (who has yet to officially enter the contest) expressed support with reservations for the administration's position on Egypt and Libya. McConnell's attachment of a war funding bill to the federal budget forced the hand of Pelosi, who reached a last-minute agreement with the administration regarding funding for social services to avert a shutdown. Many congressmen on the liberal wing of the party voted against the resolution, which was saved by the support of Minority Leader Blunt and a handful of moderate Republicans.

[SPC]

April 2011: Die Quickly...

As expected by most observers, Senator Hillary Clinton finally took the plunge into the Democratic primaries for the right to face off against President George Allen. However, her candidacy has not come without opposition from the left-wing of the party, who sees Clinton as too hawkish. Additionally, many Democratic donors believe Ms. Clinton to be too controversial to win a general election against an incumbent president with an improving economy. Senator Barack Obama's decision to focus on his position as Minority Whip rather than seek the Presidency disappointed many observers. Senator Tom Daschle, whose candidacy was seen as the best hope for stopping Clinton, became embroiled in negative media coverage after the revelation that the former Majority Leader owed $128,000 in taxes over the past several years, and Daschle's decision to go on a cruise of the Mexican Riviera in mid-April for the ostensible purpose of "studying the Operation Fast and Furious scandal." Consequently, many liberal activists have flocked to the candidacy of freshman Congressman Alan Grayson, whose acerbic House floor speeches on health care, Wall Street bailouts, and American foreign policy have earned him popularity with the base.

Meanwhile in a locale that most Americans could not find on a map, a NATO airstrike succeeded in killing Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi, sending the regime's forces into disarray in the face of a rebel advance. Coalition forces are poised to work with the Transitional Government in Benghazi to fill the power vaccuum created by the regime's collapse. President Allen was scheduled to make a speech from the White House regarding the death of Gaddafi, but delayed it to the next day due to "important developments in Pakistan."

USA Today/Gallup Democratic Primary:
Clinton 33%
Grayson 18%
Biden 9%
Daschle 7%
Feingold 5%
Dean 3%
Bayh 2%

[SPC]

May 2011: Mission Accomplished

The news of Gaddafi's death was overshadowed by the demise of a figure even more reviled in the American collective conscience. Overnight, the President recovered about 15 percentage points from his middling approval rating and appeared to vindicate his aggressive approach to foreign policy against critics who called his interventions into Iran, Egypt, and Libya counterproductive to the fight against terrorism. Democrats claim that Allen does not deserve as much credit for the successful raid, as the operation to hunt and find bin Laden in Pakistan was originally authorized during the latter part of the Kerry administration.

In the Democratic primaries, Tea Party activists repudiated Grayson's insurgent candidacy after the congressman gained media attention for numerous gaffes throughout the month, including a condemnation of the administration's "invasion of the territorial integrity of Pakistan during the bin Laden murder" and his refusal to give an apology during the first debate after privately referring to Senator Clinton as a "K Street whore."

[SPC]

I may actually be in love with this format, can I possibly use it in a future TL?

I don't see why not, thanks for your input!

June 2011: XYZ

With concerns over inflation taking precedence over the economic recovery, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announced the end of the second round of quantitative easing. While the stock market reacted poorly to the news of the program's end, the unemployment rate remained stable at 8.0%. Surprisingly, a substantial minority of both parties welcomed the move, alleviating fears that the Fed's monetary policies may be eroding the value of the dollar.

New York congressman Anthony Weiner resigned after literally being caught pants-down sending inappropriate text messages to random women on the internet. Weiner was previously seen as a leading candidate to replace Senator Clinton should she choose not to run for re-election in order to focus on her presidential bid.

Secretary Wolfowitz announced the temporary deployment of 1,000 American troops to Libya in order to assist with the post-Civil War security situation in the country. The National Transition Government had previously asked for assistance in rooting out loyalist redoubts in Sirte and Bani Walid as well as separatist violence in Benghazi.

Mason-Dixon Iowa Caucus Poll: Clinton 26% Biden 16% Dean 12% Feingold 9% Bayh 6% Daschle 5% Grayson 4%

FOX News National Polls: Allen 48% Clinton 41% Allen 52% Biden 35%

[SPC]

July 2011: Dark Horse?

With many Democratic party leaders skeptical of Senator Clinton's ability to win a general election, some have looked to possible late entrants into the contest to support. Reports surfaced that Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA), a close friend of Minority Whip Obama, has been privately approached by Senate leadership regarding the possibility of entering the race. While Patrick had previously made a Shermaneqsue statement regarding his candidacy, the Governor has since stated that he would make a decision "sometime after Labor Day." In other primary news, Senator Bayh ended his campaign after failing to get traction in the early states, and quickly signed on as a co-chair for Senator Clinton's campaign.

In Congress, House Democrats briefly tried to tie an extension of the debt ceiling to a resolution withholding funding for military operations in Libya, but the resolution's failure in the Senate necessitated last-minute negotiations to ensure the continued funding of the federal government. Democrats received extensions in unemployment benefits in exchange for their cooperation.

With the impending deadline for American withdrawal from Iraq approaching in six months, Secretary Romney made a trip to Baghdad in an attempt to negotiate the keeping of a residual force of 20,000 American soldiers in the country to maintain stability and guard the embassy. Muqtada al-Sadr has threatened to withdraw support from the Maliki regime if troops remain after the December deadline.

WMUR NH Primary Poll: Clinton 36% Patrick 19% Dean 10% Biden 6% Daschle 4% Feingold 2% Grayson 1%

President Allen Approval (Reuters-Ipsos): Approve 49% Disapprove 46% General Election Head-to-Heads (Reuters-Ipsos): Allen 49% Clinton 43% Allen 50% Patrick 42%

[SPC]

Late 2011: Smoke Grenade

In similar fashion to Libya, the supression of protests in Syria have led to the breakout of civil war in the country. However, unlike Libya, the United States has thus far hesitated to use direct intervention, instead relying on providing military aid to the anti-Assad rebels and increasingly frequent air strikes, a move in which they have been assisted by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Libya, and Egypt. Embarrassingly for the United States, Iraq has joined Iran in providing military assistance to the Assad regime in the civil war. In retaliation, the Department of Defense has intensified enforcement of the no-fly-zone against Iran and conducted air strikes against Sadrist strongholds in Iraq. Additional Russian forces have been sent to Tartus to protect the naval base and pressure Western powers against direct military intervention. While the hawks in the administration have pressed the President to call what they perceive as a "Russian bluff," Allen has thus far refrained from sending troops into the country.

As many expected, Governor Patrick entered the Presidential primaries in early September. However, Patrick's perceived waffling on foreign policy and tax issues as well as lackluster campaigning have resulted in declining poll numbers. Many Patrick supporters have started to give a second look to Senator Daschle, who delivered an excellent debate performance outlining his policy agenda while refraining from directly criticizing the other candidates. Many observers see the turn to Daschle as a last-minute attempt to thwart victory in the Iowa caucus by Howard Dean, whose surprisingly prudent campaign has once again sent him near the top of caucus polling. However, Senator Clinton recently announced that she would compete in Iowa, seeing an opportunity in a contest she had previously written off.

ABC/WaPo Iowa Caucus Poll: Daschle 27% Dean 24% Clinton 22% Biden 9% Feingold 8% Grayson 4% Patrick 2%

PPP National Poll: Clinton 28% Daschle 21% Patrick 17% Biden 5% Dean 4% Feingold 3% Grayson 1%

[SPC]

December 2011: 'Twas the Night Before Caucus

Revelations that Senator Daschle accepted large political donations from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other banking institutions in return for political favors caused Daschle's poll numbers to plummet, which was further exacerbated by a disasterous debate performance in the week before the caucus. While insurgent candidate Dean has moved into a slight lead in the polls with Daschle's collapse, Senator Clinton has hit the airwaves hard with attack ads against both Daschle and Dean. Governor Vilsack and Senator Harkin have endorsed Clinton and Dean, respectively.

Des Moines Register Iowa Caucus Poll Dean 26% Clinton 24% Feingold 17% Biden 9% Daschle 8% Patrick 2% Grayson 1%

CNN NH Primary Poll Clinton 38% Dean 25% Patrick 15% Daschle 7% Feingold 5% Biden 4% Grayson 0%

[SPC]

Game Change?

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS (99.6% REPORTING): FEINGOLD 33.0%, DEAN 30.6%, CLINTON 28.7%, BIDEN 4.9%, DASCHLE 2.8%

"I'd like to thank the people of Iowa for delivering a victory for honesty in government and for the Constitution..."



"I'm not going to do the scream this time..."



"Well, we’re going to take this enthusiasm and go right to New Hampshire tonight."

While entrance polls prior to the caucus showed Dean with a very slim lead over Clinton going in, pundits believe that Feingold's better appeal to Daschle, Biden, and Grayson supporters, his nonstop campaigning in the state, and a last-minute, under-the-radar surge in polling numbers brought his candidacy over the top. Clinton's campaign was disorganized throughout the state and in many caucus precincts failed to even meet the 15% threshold for delegates. Biden and Daschle ended their campaigns tonight and have yet to endorse a candidate.

Suffolk NH Tracking Poll Clinton 33% Feingold 25% Dean 19% Patrick 10%

Gallup National Tracking Poll Clinton 31% Feingold 25% Dean 15% Patrick 9%

[SPC]

10 January 2012: D-Day

The week prior to the New Hampshire primary provided plenty of fodder for political pundits. Facing declining poll numbers in the Granite State, Governor Patrick ceased campaigning in the state he had once hoped would provide him a regional advantage, and instead decided to spend the next two weeks in South Carolina. Senator Obama, a close Patrick ally, is also touring South Carolina as a surrogate.

Senator Feingold's momentum going into the primary was halted by a lackluster performance in the NBC debate on Saturday. Both Senator Clinton and Secretary Dean attacked Feingold for his frequent voting against the Democratic caucus in the Senate, accusing the Senator of being an ineffective legislator. For her part, Clinton sought to stake out a middle ground on foreign policy, stating that she supported the wars in Iraq and Libya but "opposed their execution." However, polling showed that voters found this explanation convoluted and evasive, which Dean did not hesitate in pointing out during the debate.

A last-minute October Surprise may have come from on Monday when Clinton became teary-eyed while campaigning in a coffee shop in Portsmouth, NH. Some thought it might have been Clinton's Muskie moment, but others thought it showed an empathetic side to the candidate who suffers from a cold and calculating public image.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS (99.9% REPORTING): CLINTON 36.54%, DEAN 36.53%, FEINGOLD 15.9%, PATRICK 10.4%, GRAYSON 0.5%

Despite only achieving a 3-vote margin of victory over Dean (the second-closest election in New Hampshire history), neither the news media nor the Clinton campaign hesitated to declare a winner. The Dean campaign announced that they would request a recount under New Hampshire law, which will likely take 1-2 weeks to process.

Rasmussen SC Primary Poll: Clinton 32% Patrick 28% Dean 14% Feingold 13%

ABC/WaPo National Poll: Clinton 39% Feingold 18% Dean 17% Patrick 15%