Ukraine Crisis

[SPC]

Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Well, there is a second scenario. Imagine the EU reacting with a trade boycott on Russia that includes transit of Russian goods over EU territory. That would effectively cut off Kaliningrad oblast from the remainder of Russia, and leave Russia with three choices:
1. Trade in Kaliningrad for Crimea (highly unlikely)
2. Give in on Crimea / Ukraine
3. Try to use military force in order to keep supply routes to Kaliningrad open, which would imply aggression on Lithuania, and as such invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

As such, the Lithuanian request indicates to me that blocking Kaliningrad is being seriously considered. What is the Lithuanian position on this issue, and how the EU will ultimately decide, is another question, but the EU is having quite an ace up their sleeve still.

Can't they just ship everything between Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg, or perform a Kaliningrad Airlift?

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Hitler never invaded the US, btw. Poland and Czecoslovakia did not get their German minorities by accdent either.

Unlike you I merely understand what is Putin. I know the type. It IS scary.

Un

The United States didn't fight Hitler in the Pacific either.

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.


As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.


As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.

Again, you put out this vague warning but do not point out any plausible places that would be next on Russia's list.

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.

You did not. But your government did, and your Congress ratified.

In any case, if you do not want to be held accountable, then do not be surprised if within the next 10 years pretty much everybody has a nuke of their own (states and non-state groups included). In the case of Ukraine, they should be able to produce one within a couple of years (they have power stations, from which they can extract plutonium, and have more than enough scientists and engineers who know how to do it).  They, of course, would not use it against the US (they would much prefer to explode it on the Red Square). But there will be a few dozen groups that will.

Any third-world dictator who hasn't gotten that memo after our attacks on Libya and Iraq (which gave up their weapons programs) and capitulation to North Korea's demands is either not smart enough to get the message again or lacks the means to do so.

And besides, I would think that the United States' support for toppling the Syrian government would be a much greater risk for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction among groups without an instinct for self-preservation than any nonintervention in Eastern Europe.

[SPC]

Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?

I guess you want to start World War 3 then.

He wants to avoid it.

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[SPC]

Perhaps Snowtalker belongs to Jobbik

http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_new_ukrainian_government_chauvinistic_and_illegitimate

By that logic, was Churchill a fascist for supporting the Greeks?