SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: October 05, 2014, 07:03:27 PM » |
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« edited: October 06, 2014, 03:42:36 PM by SPC »
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Orman 48%
Roberts 47%
Batson 5%
EDIT: Admittedly it is a small sample size, but in three recent races where an incumbent in a safe state for his own party was down a sizable amount in the polls in early October (Alaska 2004, Montana 2006, Alaska 2008), the incumbent performed roughly 5 points stronger than expected. I will err on the side of trusting the polls, since Orman's lead is roughly 5 points, but I suspect that this race will be closer than currently forecasted.
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