At best, Bush the Third will match Romney among white voters (he is probably one of the worst candidates to run for this demographic) and thus the only difference I make between this and the 2012 map is assuming that Bush can match his brother's numbers among Hispanics (a stretch, to say the least), while Asians and Blacks revert back to pre-Obama voting patterns. In states that were close, I put my thumb on the scale depending on Clinton's strength in that state (so Colorado and Virginia go for Bush while Nevada and New Mexico go for Clinton). While I am ordinarily bearish on Clinton's chances of winning, Bush does not seem like the right candidate to exploit Clinton's intrinsic weaknesses.
Poll
