The same is true for the collar counties of Cook in IL. DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will have all grown in every Census since 1840. McHenry is down by 0.5% since 2010, so the string might be broken this decade.
Do you think that's really true though? McHenry grew by almost 20% in the 2000s. It's hard to believe it's lost population, especially with the economy picking back up.
The loss of the suburban tax base is the unspoken cause of much of the impasse in IL. Kendall's growth rate is one tenth of what it was in the last decade. McHenry lost about 600 people from 2010 to 2015. The collars are where the tax base lives, without its growth the state cannot sustain the growth of its schools, roads, and social safety net.
I wouldn't say "loss of suburban tax base"... loss of momentum. Illinois has been under investing in its infrastructure for a while... instead revenues brought in by new growth were being invested into already existing, ongoing expenses. Which is a mighty stupid thing to do.
As soon as the music stopped back in 2008, Illinois was left with 10 players and 9 chairs. And now Illinois has 9 chairs, but about 25 chairs worth of deferred maintenance and infrastructure investments to make in order to make living in the state worth it.
So, a lot of Illinois' problems are, yes, a lack of growth... but that's not a death knell unless the politicians have been mismanaging things. And I can see why Muon might be reluctant to admit that
I don't think things in the U.S. will be all that different than places in Europe with populations that have aged earlier and faster than us (thus providing a general picture of where things are headed).
The inner cities are the most desirable... and in the case of Japan or Germany... are the only places where a viable real estate market as we know it continues to exist. Most of the rest of Germany, for example, is full of vacant properties with bargain basement prices and almost no chance of being sold.
This has happened in rural areas for a long time. But rather than start in the inner city and fan outward... it will creep inward from the edges. The exurbs and outer suburbs will stagnate and decline slowly and people who own houses there will have a hard time selling them. As the kids graduate off and move out... you'll see inevitable abandonment of homes as the parents living there can't sell and want something smaller closer in. Others will be "stuck".
It's an inevitable, sad, long process that won't be reversed unless
1) People start moving to Illinois
2) People have more babies that stay in Illinois
I doubt either will happen in any meaningful way.
