AZ is a must win state for Biden and the fact that its a tossup for him right now is not a good sign. Even Meghan McCain of all people is getting squeamish on Biden and the Dems. She is even supporting downballot Rs now which she didn't do in previous years. She won't vote Trump but I also doubt she goes for Biden this time around. But yeah, Biden's presidency has been a complete dumpster fire in the eyes of most people, including moderate suburbanites who backed him 4 years ago. Around a year ago I had AZ as Lean D, but now I can actually see an argument for Trump being favored.
Have you felt any shift in vibes since 2020 towards Trump? Biden literally hasn't led in one AZ poll this cycle unless you include polls from last spring, when he consistently led in 2020.
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