Congressional superlatives from this year

[Roll Roons]

Disregarding NY-22. Margins are all based on percentages, unless stated otherwise.

Closest call for winning D incumbent: NJ-07

Closest call for winning R incumbent: CA-25

Largest margin of defeat for an incumbent: MN-07

Smallest margin of defeat for an incumbent: CA-21

Closest R open seat hold: TX-24

Closest D open seat hold: IL-03

Closest open seat: IA-02

Closest race in the country by percentage and vote total: IA-02

Biggest R overperformance of Trump: PA-01

Biggest D overperformance of Biden: MN-07

Biggest R incumbent underperformance of Trump: MN-01

Biggest D incumbent underperformance of Biden: MN-05

Most Democratic seat won by a Republican: CA-21

Most Republican seat won by a Democrat: ME-02

Biggest swing towards Republicans: IL-03. That's what happens when an incumbent with significant crossover appeal loses his primary and Republicans don't nominate a literal Neo-Nazi. Who'd a thunk it?

Biggest swing towards Democrats: FL-04. Maybe there's a glimmer of hope for Democrats in this state.

CA-21 and MN-07 each have two distinctions. The former had the smallest margin of defeat for an incumbent, but will be the most Democratic seat to have a Republican congressman. Although Collin Peterson's margin of defeat was the largest for a House incumbent, he still far outperformed Biden, losing by 13 as Trump carried the district by just under 30. It's well-known on here that Ilhan Omar had the worst performance relative to the presidential topline of any incumbent Democrat, but it looks like the biggest incumbent underperformance on the other side of the aisle was also in Minnesota, where Jim Hagedorn in MN-01 won by 3 as Trump carried his district by 10. And of course, IA-02 was the closest open seat and the closest seat overall.

Feel free to add or correct any!

[Roll Roons]

The dynamics of CA-21 are crazy. It voted for Clinton by 16 points but Valadao won by 13. I know he lost in 2018, but he came back again this year while overperforming Trump by a massive amount. Does the Hispanic surname carry that much weight? Or is always that GOP downballot?

Valadao is actually Portuguese, but I guess his name sounds vaguely Latino and I think there is a pretty sizable Portuguese community in the Central Valley. He also managed to build up a strong personal brand, being a dairy farmer in a district where that's a big industry. Cox is also a prime example of driftwood. He was (barely) swept in thanks to a wave, turned out to have a lot of issues, and got booted two years later in a less favorable environment for his party.