Portuguese General Election

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Lisboa

2009: PS 19, PSD/PPD 13, CDS/PP 5, B.E. 5, PCP-PEV 5

I wrote it in my post before. You need only 2% there for a seat and all small parties campaign there very heavy. Lisbon is a very left district, especially the northern and eastern suburbs are strongholds of the PS and the PCP. The B.E. is very very strong there. I don't see a small party with enough votes there. The PCP can win one seat more.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 18 (-1), PSD 15 (+2), CDS-PP 4 (-1), B.E. 4 (-1), PCP-PEV 6 (+1)


Madeira

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1

In Madeira exists no Democracy. It is like a One-Party-State, ruled by the PSD. Madeira is the most conservative district of Portugal, only in the Capital Funchal and in Machico the other parties have a chance. in the last Presidential election José Manuel Coelho, a regional Politician had 39% there. Now he is a member of the PTP (a Social Democratic Workers Party). If the Madeirians still like him, it is possible for a surprise seat for him. If ge get many votes, but no seat, the PS can win a second seat.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 4 (nc). CDS-PP 1 (nc)


Portalegre

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 1

The smallest district of Portugal. It is like all Alentejo districts very left. In a good Year the PS win both seats, but not this time. The PCP would have a chance for the 3dr seat, but Portalegre have only 2

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 1 (nc)

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Porto

2009: PS 18, PSD/PPD 12, CDS/PP 4, B.E. 3, PCP-PEV 2

The second-largest district of Portugal. Mainly the city of Porto and its suburbs. It is the industrial heartland of Portugal. It is in the nrth and so no stronghold for the PCP, but the PS have many time there more Seats like in Lisbon.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 17 (-1), PSD 14 (+2), CDS-PP 3 (-1), B.E. 2 (-1), PCP-PEV 3 (+1)

Santarém

2009: PS 4, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1, PCP-PEV 1

Santarém is Portugal à miniature. In the North a Catholic Theocraty (Fatima), in the west it is no long way to Lisbon, a bigger industial city (Samtarém) and in the south a Communist stronghold like in Alentejo. I don't see big changes to the last election. Maybe the B.E. can lose their seat.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 4 (nc), PSD 4 (+1). CDS-PP 1 (nc), B.E. 0 (-1), PCP-PEV 1 (nc)


Setúbal

2009: PS 7, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 2, PCP-PEV 4

A very left-wing district. Mainy the southern suburbs of Lisbon and the industrial cities Setúbal and Palmela. The south is a part of the Alentejo. The CDS-seat isn't save and the last seat is close between the CDS and the PCP.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 6 (-1), PSD 4 (+1). CDS-PP 0 (-1), B.E. 2 (nc), PCP-PEV 5 (+1)

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Viana do Castelo

2009: PS 3, PSD/PPD 2, CDS/PP 1

The most northern district of Portugal. Like all parts in the North it is more conservative than the average, but the PS is relative strong there. I'm sure that the PSD will gain a seat, but the CDS-seat isn't save. Only a few loses of the CDS and PS can hold their mandate.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (-1), PSD 3 (+1). CDS-PP 1 (nc)


Vila Real

2009: PS 2, PSD/PPD 3

A rural district with a Catholic Redneck Population. It is the home-district of Passos Coelho, the leader of the PSD. Normally I see no changes there, but maybe it give a Passos Coelho hype ther and the will win 4 seats.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (nc), PSD 3 (nc)


Viseu

2009: PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1

Again a Conservative, Catholic district. In the south we say about them, they can only pray and eat potatoes, nothing else I don't think the PS can have this good result from the last election again.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 3 (-1), PSD 5 (+1). CDS-PP 1 (nc)


Europe

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 1

For the Portuguese, living in other European Countries, it gives 2 mandates. Every election since 1974 the PS and PSD win one. Only Guterres win one time both for the PS. In the last election it was very close with the PSD seat, but I don't see this seat this time in danger.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 1 (nc)


Rest of the World

2009: PSD/PPD 2

For all Portugese People in the rest of the World we have 2 mandates too. The Portuguese from South Africa, Brasil and the US are very antisocialistic and vote every time for the PSD. Only one time the PS won the second seat.

My prediction for 2011:
PSD 2 (nc)

[Hans-im-Glück]

In my prediction we have no winner.

PS   90
PSD  95
CDS-PP  18
B.E.  9
PCP-PEV  18

PSD + CDS 113 (116 is the majority)

We will see how good is my prediction

[Hans-im-Glück]

If your prediction (or something substantially similar) pan out, what are the odds of a PS minority government again, tolerated by the parties to the left?

If the PSD is in the strongest Party, then they will build a minority governement. I don't see that the PCP or the B.E. want to tolerate th PS. Maybe without Sócrates, but this will not happen.

In Madeira, CDS-PP got a seat with 11.12% of votes. I think that if PTP gets 15% or more, Coelho can get a seat with 12% and if he goes with more than 25%, he can bring another PTP person to parliament. In National Assembly, if PSD gets power, he can become a national leadership.

You are right, but I don't trust the Madeirians. In the end they every time follow the PSD and their Maximo Lider Jardim. But who knows, maybe they learn something

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In the last days we have some new polls. They are not very different to the last polls, but the lead of the PSD is a little bit higher (2%-3%). Maybe this would be enough for for a PSD/CDS majority.

We will see it on sunday.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today are the elections. In the evening, local time, you can see here the official results.
http://www.legislativas2011.mj.pt/index.html

The election special broadcast of the public broadcaster RTP ​​you can watch here:
RTP 1 or RTPN

I think the PSD and the CDS will do a little bit better than in my prediction and it will be enough for an absolute majority, but only a small one.

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At which hour exactly will we have the first results ?

At 20:00 local time

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It seems the turnout is a little bit lower than 2009

16:00 have 41.98% voted (2009 at the same time 43.30%)

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Here an other live-stream if you want to watch the Portuguese Election:
SICN

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Polling stations in mainland Portugal are now closed. But in the Azores, they are still open for an hour and the results may not be published. In 58 minutes we know more.

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Projection Universidade Catolica (RTP)

PS  26-30%
PSD  37-42%
CDS  11-14%
PCP  7-9%
B.E.  5-7%

Mandates:

PS  67-77
PSD  104-114
CDS  22-28
PCP  14-18
B.E.  8-11

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Eurosondagem/SIC have nearly the same result

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57% reporting

PSD 42.6
PS 29.2
CDS-PP 10.6
PCP-PEV 6
BE 3.8

WoW.

There are missing the big cities, but it is a bigger victory of the PSD than expected.

The sheeps voted for the butcher

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The poll of the Universidade Catolica says that the PAN (Party for Animals and Nature) wins a seat in Lisbon

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WOW, i need a Vodka

My hometown in Portugal (Silves) voted for the right

PPD/PSD 29,03%  1.528 votos
PS 21,11%  1.111 votos
PCP-PEV 16,70%  879 votos
CDS-PP 11,25%  592 votos
B.E. 9,39%  494 votos
PCTP/MRPP 2,11%  111 votos  


2009:

PS 27,38% 1.473 votos
PPD/PSD 20,41% 1.098 votos
B.E. 18,72% 1.007 votos
PCP-PEV 16,39% 882 votos
CDS-PP 8,27% 445 votos
PCTP/MRPP 1,75% 94 votos
 

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Ouch.... That's that bad ?

Yeah, Silves is (no was) a very left-wing city. With the vote for the PSD I can live, but in my town are living 592 idiots . But maybe this is only a bad dream

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The margin seems to be huge but can't urban areas still prevent the right from getting an absolute majority ?

No, PSD/CDS have the majority.

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Final result for the district of Beja:

PS 29,79% 22.308 votos 1 mandate (-1)
PCP-PEV 25,39%1 9.011 votos 1 mandate
PPD/PSD 23,65% 17.711 votos 1 mandate (+1)
CDS-PP 7,29%  5.462 votos
B.E. 5,19% 3.890 votos

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Final result for the district of Castelo Branco:

PPD/PSD 37,96% 41.799 votos 2 mandates (nc)
PS 34,80% 38.316 votos 2 mandates (nc)
CDS-PP 9,57% 10.535 votos
PCP-PEV 4,89% 5.386 votos
B.E. 4,19% 4.614 votos

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Final result for the district of Portalegre:

PPD/PSD 32,46% 19.992 votos 1 mandates (nc)
PS 32,43% 19.978 votos 1 mandates (nc)
PCP-PEV 12,81% 7.890 votos
CDS-PP 10,14% 6.247 votos
B.E. 4,45% 2.743 votos

The Psd have more votes in Portalegre than the PS. I think this never happen before.

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Final result for the district of Viseu:

PPD/PSD 48,38% 98.098 votos 5 mandates (+1)
PS 26,69% 54.107 votos 3 mandates (-1)
CDS-PP 12,37% 25.090 votos 1 mandates (nc)
PCP-PEV 2,87% 5.816 votos
B.E. 2,85% 5.786 votos

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Final result for the district of Viana do Castelo:

PPD/PSD 43,59% 58.806 votos 3 mandates (+1)
PS 26,18% 35.319 votos 2 mandates (-1)
CDS-PP 13,44% 18.129 votos 1 mandates (nc)
PCP-PEV 4,93% 6.645 votos
B.E. 4,39% 5.925 votos
 

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Final result for the district of Évora:

PS 29,07% 25.032 votos 1 mandatos (nc)
PPD/PSD 27,47% 23.652 votos 1 mandatos (nc)
PCP-PEV 22,06% 18.990 votos 1 mandatos (nc)
CDS-PP 8,73% 7.513 votos
B.E. 4,91% 4.230 votos
 

[Hans-im-Glück]

So sixth party vote is up?

The Party for Animals and Nature maybe wins a seat in Lisbon.

It looks that this will be reverse version of PSD's 2005 debacle.

That's democracy. It is a good result for the PSD, but no enormous victory. The PS have a bad result, not more. The CDS have a very good result. Paulo Portas, the big bad wolf has eaten chalk and it has worked. The PCP have the votes they every time have. And the B.E. is have the result of 2005. This isn't very bad, but a clear dissapointment.