PA: Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research Trump + 4

[wbrocks67]

So I'll be called a hack by the usual suspects, but a few things here-

Their final 2022 poll was... not great. Not horrible, but they seriously missed in some groups. They had Independents going Oz +7, when the final result was Fetterman +20. Seems same thing is happening here with Trump +10 among Independents (very unlikely)

Feels like a lot of Dixiecrats here too. Biden's fav/approval among *Democrats* is +36 and +40. That's like 68/32 and 70/30 territory, which is clearly unrealistic and not borne out anywhere else. 80/20 is realistic, but 30% disapproving isn't something we've seen anywhere else.

Trump sure as hell is not tied in the PA suburbs.

And Biden and Trump's net favorabilities do not have a *15%* difference (-23 vs. -8) come on now.

It even only has Casey at 86% of Democrats (vs Bidens 84%), that's oddly low consolidation.

It also only has Shapiro even at 49/30 fav, which is also the lowest I've seen for him to date.

[wbrocks67]

This poll seems to have more realistic age and race splits than most.

50+, but not <50 - Biden basically duplicating 2020 #s among older voters here, but <50 is where the issue is, which would not be surprising given the age issues in other polls as well.

2020 exit poll:
18-44: Biden +24, 61-37
45+: Trump +12, 56-44

Poll:
18-49: Biden +3, 48-45
50+: Trump +10, 52-42

[wbrocks67]

Urban
2020 exit poll: Biden +50 (74-24)
2024 poll: Biden +22 (56-38)

Suburban
2020 exit poll: Trump +3 (51-48)
2024 poll: tie (47-47)

Rural
2020 exit poll: Trump +39 (69-30)
2024 poll: Trump +36 (65-29)

lmao, same results basically as 2020 (3% better in both suburbs and rural for Biden, actually) but a 28% drop for Biden in urban areas. Haven't seen this at all before this cycle!!