Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Recent announcements from the government have set some time in May 2015 for at least two referendums, which will concern:

1. Allowing and legalizing Gay Marriage
2. Reducing the age limit of candidates to the presidency from 35 to 21.

Furthermore there is a talk of a couple of other referendums that might be held at the same time concerning:

1. Reducing the voting age to 16
2. Establishing a special court for patent and intellectual property law
3. and possibly (though this is more speculative) a vote on removing article 41.2 from the constitution, which gives special recognition to 'Women in the home'

There is also a by-election due in Carlow-Kilkenny as sitting TD Phil Hogan (FG) is off to Brussels and the European Commission. It will probably be held on the same day as the first two referendums.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Just to let everyone know, the vote for both referendums and the by-election is tomorrow.

Counting the result, however, will take place on Saturday.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Yes. As I said on the other thread, there should be enough goodwill and sense of "live and let live" among the general population to carry it through by at least 53-54%.

Announcements of support by Mary McAleese (former President and publicly Catholic) and Daniel O'Donnell (a very big Country and Irish star - think dansband but with more twangy guitars) will have helped to allay the effect of what otherwise tended to be a Dublin 4-talking-unto-Dublin 4 Yes campaign.

The one worry I have about a big Yes vote is that it may encourage the Dawkins fanboy/campus Left/Trotskyite fringes of the Yes side to demand more culture wars on issues where they are more likely to lose, albeit not before months of screeching on both sides.

Speaking of which, have you heard the official reason Atheist Ireland came out for a 'No' vote in the Presidential Age referendum?

Because the referendum would not abolish the oath in which the President has to swear unto God. Seriously, yes.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Were No to win then the polls for the UK general election would look fantastic in comparison.

Irish referendum polls are usually wrong.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Polls are now closed.

Counting will start tomorrow at 10AM GMT. Official Results expected at about 4PM GMT. However, we should know the basic outline well before then.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

On the other elections - it looks like reducing the President's age will be defeated and the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election is legitimately close, with a surprisingly good showing for the Labour Party candidate.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looking like a national figure of 60/40 or so. The No campaign has already conceded on RTÉ Radio.

Twitter hashtags are #marref and #marref2015.

In such a case, would No win most rural areas? Only some? I mean, in term of counties/counting areas.

From tallies it is possible that YES will win all 43 constituencies - even the two Donegal ones are showing YES leads.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

First Result in:

Dublin North West
Yes - 20,919 (70.4%)
No - 8,814 (29.6%)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Tallies from Wicklow by ward

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Does it usually take this long to get a result in Ireland?

Yes.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Final tally from Carlow-Kilkenny

FF 28.0
FG 21.1
SF 16.1
Renua 9.4
Lab 6.5
GP 5.4
Ind Gardiner 4.4
SWP t/a PBP 3.4
SP t/a AAA 3.2
Others 2.6

Is that a Fianna Fáil gain?

Well it go transfers but it would be, yes, if it holds to be case. (Given the gap, I would say it is quite likely).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I just want to add that Aodhan O Riordan is why politicians shouldn't use twitter.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yes, one thing the NO campaign really didn't understand is that Ireland is not America.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yes, one thing the NO campaign really didn't understand is that Ireland is not America.

To be fair, Gully, I'm not sure that everyone on the "liberal" side entirely gets it either.

Oh I agree with that. I was just responding to your post on abortion and laicité in education.

Thank god the campaign is over.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What an amazing and decisive victory for equal rights. I really have to applaud the people of Ireland. As a foreigner, I am quite curious. Why was this a national referendum in the first place? Could this not be passed through normal legislative means or is a national referendum used to give a cause more meaning?

Because all changes to the constitution require a referendum it's.... in the constitution. And there was enough ambiguities about the position of marriage in the constitution that without this referendum it would have been up to the courts to determine the constitutionality of gay marriage, and right-wing campaigners are well known to putting up endless legal challenges to legislation they don't like.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh, in the other referendum 10 constituencies have declared and pretty much all of them say the same thing: Victory for NO by about 75-25. No Dublin seat has declared yet though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Final Result

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What's that lone red constituency called?

Roscommon.

Not quite. It's Roscommon-South Leitrim

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Following on from what ObserverIE said while Ireland is politically a quite conservative country in the sense of 'not radical' and being somewhat wary of 'progressive' change - the two dominant parties in Irish parties in Irish history couldn't have been Fianna Fail and Fine Gael otherwise - there is a very little appetite for out and out reactionary politics, as this campaign and the aforementioned lack of anti-migration sentiment shows*.

(* - one possible exception - and it is an unusual one unique to Ireland - is the animus towards the Irish Traveller population).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Bobby Aylward (FF) has won the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election as expected. Full figures to come later.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why did they throw a tantrum though? Why don't the intelligentsia mind FG?

'Dublin 4' and a certain type of Irish Times reader, one who writes into the letters page a lot, do not like Fianna Fail.

Although I will add it is not really clear what did it for Labour in 1997, whether it was reversion to the mean, betrayal over supporting FF or betrayal over being coalition with FF and then switching to supporting the Rainbow government of 1994-1997 (John Bruton in 1994 became Taoiseach without being elected, he got Labour to switch sides in the house and Democratic Left joined them. In 1992 that wasn't a majority but thanks to by-elections in 1994 it was).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Unsurprisingly perhaps Dublin South East was the most YES for both referendums.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Renua propose abolishing motor tax, the television licence (making RTÉ rely solely on commercial revenue so that it can compete with the beacons of excellence that are TV3 and UTV Ireland), and replacing income tax and social contributions with a 23% flat tax applied to all income including social welfare payments such as pensions and unemployment benefit (employers' social contributions would also be abolished).

There would be no exemption level so even the lowest earners would be hit, but apparently there would be a sliding scale of tax rebates so that low-paid workers would not be hit too severely, but those contract cleaners and petrol station attendants are to be told to work harder and for longer in order to retain their current income.

"TheJournal Politics Verified account
‏@TJ_Politics

Lucinda: Flat tax will provide greater employment… those on low pay will have incentive to work more hours and work harder #budget16"

https://twitter.com/TJ_Politics/status/650983062629695488

Minimum wage earners tend to be disproportionately foreign workers (with no vote) and even those lower earners who are Irish citizens tend to be less likely to vote. Lucinda knows who she's appealing to and who doesn't matter.

There would be a severe shortfall in tax income as a result, but this would be filled by massive cuts in health, education and social protection expenditure magic beans dynamic growth as a result of animal spirits being liberated.

Well I was struggling to decide in the all important and highly contested battle for my final preference between FF, SF and the various Far left groups but now after this news RENUA has leaped far ahead. However, given that there will inevitably be more policy announcements for the various parties of the next couple of months I expect the other parties to up their game in this contest and make it close again.