Poll: Who wins in 2012?

[Beet]

The way things are going right now, Obama will not only not win, but he will lose in a landslide. The problem is that he has no accomplishments because his party is disunited. The GOP, whether the Bush years or the Obama years, are like one arm, moving in unison. The Democrats are like 4-5 different parties squabbling on a wagon cart that is about to turn over. As I believe the pendulum has swung from weak government (1970s-2000s) towards strong government, as it was in the 1930s, then this favors the GOP, which is structurally best suited for strong government. The irony of the GOP's weak government rhetoric (when they are out of power) is that they are much more effective at actually passing legislation even with smaller majorities and therefore you end up with a stronger government (see Medicare Part D;Sarbanes-Oxley). Whereas the Democrats will talk for decades about grand plans like public health care, but they will never actually do it.

J.J. has been predicting a realignment for 2012 through much of the 2008 season, and he was laughed at at the time, but he may be right.

Of course I hope it does not happen and that things can turn around. If Obama can just get one major accomplishment (like health care) it will be a huge relief.