Beet
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,989
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« on: November 08, 2012, 03:08:30 PM » |
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« edited: November 08, 2012, 03:16:32 PM by Beet »
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This is a good analysis of Romney's problems in the 2012 election, but that election is over. Although after almost every election, analysts tend to act as if the most recent result can be extrapolated into the future, that is not the case. The analysts tend to underestimate the impact of the candidates themselves. Depending on which candidate each party runs, the map could look very different. Just look at the difference between the performances of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in West Virginia. Not every Democrat will be favored in states such as Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire, which seemed to like Obama.
Incidentally, I wish the best for Republicans in any efforts to include people of color. Racial polarization in politics is bad news. There are some minorities who are naturally conservative and shouldn't be held back from voting GOP because of real or perceived racism on the part of the GOP. For instance, while I was out canvassing last month, one black lady told me could not vote for Obama because his position on gay marriage, she explained she was a "disciple" and would be called to answer in the next life if she voted for him. While I couldn't disagree more with this lady, she should have been a Republican voter. Instead she likely did not vote. A lot of blacks are socially conservative. Why else would gay marriage only pass 52-48 in Maryland. These should be Republican voters. Conversely, Appalachian white voters should be more Democratic than they have been at the presidential level in the past four years.
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