Bush takes lead in New York

[Beet]

During the anti-globalization protests there was a great deal of civil disobedience and a consistent presence by anarchists. You had the peaceful, lawful protestors, usually forming the majority, and you had the people trying to break into areas they weren't allowed, who got the most coverage, and then you had the anarchists. That was back in 1999-2001.

During the anti-war protests, there were only a few major ones. One in November 2002, one January 18, 2003, and the mother of all February 15, 2003. Millions of people showed up for this last protest, but there was not a significant deal of violence, as was seen in the '60s protests or the anti-globalization protests. Later on in March you had some civil disobedience with people trying to block roads but this was a tiny minority of activists. Unfortunately anarchists and radicals usually just use protests as a cover to commit crimes, and end up undermining the message of the entire thing. This time, at the Republican convention, it will be so political that Republicans will have an incentive to pay anarchists to go in and destroy property posing as convention protestors. If not the party itself at least some Bush supporters.

There are two ways such a protest could go.... peaceful, police-friendly protest, or debacle. However I think the people of New York are calm enough to handle this. They handled the blackout after all. In '77 during the blackout there were riots. In '03 even though it could have been a terror attack, the sudden return to a Hobbesian state of nature did not produce chaos. Quite remarkable.

[Beet]

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The only thing I'm worried about is that this protest is centered around a meeting and some protestors may try to disrupt the convention. I agree that will look very bad if the convention is functionally set back because of some people violating the law. The other thing is that, since the convention is spread over a number of days, thus the potential for getting out of hand is increased. Overall though, the nation is a lot calmer now than it was in the '60s and '70s. We have had countless smooth, peaceful protests. And the NY police are the best in the country at crowd control.