Now that Trump has unified his party, he's surging (user search)
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  Now that Trump has unified his party, he's surging (search mode)
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Author Topic: Now that Trump has unified his party, he's surging  (Read 1285 times)
Beet
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« on: May 19, 2016, 09:14:01 AM »

I expect some pretty ugly GE polls so long as the Democratic nomination is not decided one way or another. Right now it's a single-sided war, and only one side is really shooting with full force. Democrats need to prepare to take fire until July 25 - 28 while we get our business sorted out. Meanwhile, Trump should aim to put both Democrats in such a bad position by late July that they have a steep uphill climb going into the fall - similar to the one Humphrey had in 1968, that he was unable to recover from. That will be a tougher job for him since the conventions this year are a month earlier than usual.
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2016, 09:29:04 AM »

"Unified his party".  To be clear, almost every general election poll has Clinton getting at least a slightly larger share of Democrats than Trump gets of Republicans.  But Trump is also competitive with, if not winning, Independents, which is why he's competitive overall.  Of course, it's still really early.

I think independents are swayed by the fact that they see one side speaking with a united voice, and the other side speaking with a divided voice (half of which the content of what they're saying validates the other side, particularly in matchups involving Clinton). In any conflict, this will make the united side seem more credible. It is true that there are still some Republican holdouts like Romney, but the party as a whole is far more united than before, and this has coincided with the Trump surge in the polls. Nothing much else has changed.

To be clear, I'm probably one of the only Clinton supporters who's not angry at Sanders even if he is hurting Clinton in the GE polls. He's entitled to do as he likes, and he doesn't owe Clinton anything.
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2016, 09:42:29 AM »

Even if you are right, anger isn't going to do anything productive. These people don't like Clinton because she has failed to make the case for them. Right now all she can do is try to make the case to the majority of voters in the upcoming contests, just like she has all year, and then if she has a popular vote/pledged delegate majority, argue that that means she should be the nominee. After that point she can turn her full attention to arguing she'd make a better president than Trump. Any anger on top of that accomplishes nothing, and just looks entitled. Personally I know I would not like to be shamed into voting for anyone or policing my tone, and it wouldn't work.
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