MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Beet]

Now I'm upset I changed my prediction to 49-47 instead of sticking with 52-45. The lesson tonight: Beet is too optimistic. Need to increase my pessimism.

Are you trying to entertain people here?

No, why? Although it would be nice if the people constantly attacking me and accusing me of all kinds of BS apologized instead and recognized me as one of the smarter posters on here. But that will never happen.

[Beet]

Quist' win will not only send a message to Republicans, but Democrats as well.

The message is we need a national popular vote and other electoral reforms for true democracy. Quist would have won easily in DC, but we don't get a seat in Congress. We must also resolutely convince people that this is just. In the meantime, we need to run 3rd way centrists like Joe Manchin, not far left kooks.

[Beet]

Quist' win will not only send a message to Republicans, but Democrats as well.

The message is we need a national popular vote and other electoral reforms for true democracy. Quist would have won easily in DC, but we don't get a seat in Congress. We must also resolutely convince people that this is just. In the meantime, we need to run 3rd way centrists like Joe Manchin, not far left kooks.

You do realize Quist is massively over-performing Clinton's number in a race which Zinke wins by 15-20% every election off. This was a 20% loss seat, Curtis lost by 18% in 2014. Quist is keeping it close, let all the results come in !

Wrong comparison: that was a presidential election and Montana is R at the presidential level. This is a Congressional election with an unpopular Republican incumbent president and a Republican candidate who is a known criminal. He is a known criminal and still won, with no one changing their minds. Process this.

[Beet]

Back in the day Barry lost Montana by about 2%. It's interesting how its now the voters that are the problem and not the party!

In 2008, the Democrats were still the party of 3rd way Clintonism. SJWs and hard left "progressives" sh**t the can for the Democrats.

[Beet]

Back in the day Barry lost Montana by about 2%. It's interesting how its now the voters that are the problem and not the party!

In 2008, the Democrats were still the party of 3rd way Clintonism. SJWs and hard left "progressives" sh**t the can for the Democrats.

Oh f**k off you imbecile

Right, six months of hearing "Boinie woulda won!" is getting so annoying. All the Bernie people I know voted for Clinton. Going further to the left would not have picked up anything. Emmanuel Macron, a 3rd way Clintonite centrist, won in a landslide. Whereas the Muslim-loving Corbyn is going down. But please, tell me more about how if Clinton had just been more pure she would have done better, and she lost because of her own faults rather than being pushed too far left by Sanders.

[Beet]

LOL someone is triggered, my posts are getting deleted.

[Beet]

Right, six months of hearing "Boinie woulda won!" is getting so annoying. All the Bernie people I know voted for Clinton. Going further to the left would not have picked up anything. Emmanuel Macron, a 3rd way Clintonite centrist, won in a landslide. Whereas the Muslim-loving Corbyn is going down. But please, tell me more about how if Clinton had just been more pure she would have done better, and she lost because of her own faults rather than being pushed too far left by Sanders.

Wait, I thought you retroactively switched to Bernie after Hillary's loss?

I did for a while but then I realized not to be a r_tard. Anyway, my posts praising Bill Clinton and the DLC, which a Republican on here agreed with, were deleted. People are allowed to tell me "f off' as a substantive post, but I am not allowed to respond.

[Beet]

LOL someone is triggered, my posts are getting deleted.

Honestly, that's probably good for the quality of this forum. You always predict the very worst to happen to yourself and your party, pretend it never happened when you're wrong, and on the occasions that you're right obsessively demand apologies from people who call you out for your behavior and claim you're one of the smartest posters here. It gets very tiring to deal with very quickly.

When did I pretend it never happened? I freely admit when I am wrong. I was wrong about France. But people on here act like I am always wrong, and keep bringing up ebola and Fukushima as if I'm some crazed idiot, and never mention my correct analysis which is often years ahead of time.

[Beet]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Looking like a smart move.

[Beet]

Remember, Bullock was an incumbent who had 60+ approval ratings barely coasted by-- only won by 4 points. Otherwise he would have been toast.

[Beet]

Steve Bullock approval rating (Morning Consult) May-Sept. 2016

Approve 66%
Disapprove 19%

https://morningconsult.com/governor-approval-rankings-september-2016/

If Larry Hogan has those numbers next year I'd expect him to do better than Bullock did last year.

[Beet]

Remember, Bullock was an incumbent who had 60+ approval ratings barely coasted by-- only won by 4 points. Otherwise he would have been toast.

So you are saying this is a pretty good performance, and the Democrats ought to nominate Berniecrats for everything. Message received!

The Berniecrat just lost to a criminal. Very successful brand of politics to be selling. Where's jfern?

[Beet]

Beet, your posts are bad.

I'm allowed to blow off a little steam after being browbeat for 7 months over how many Democrat but Clinton would have wiped the board. Bernie woulda won. Biden woulda won. Obama woulda won. O'Malley woulda won. It was a rejection of HER. LOL.

[Beet]

Beet, your posts are bad.

Some of it is deranged, but he's making pretty astute points about how left-wing populism is failing to deliver.

Thank you. Alright, someone has seen the point, I'm out.

[Beet]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

Yes because you are hardcore Republican who wouldn't take anything for granted in Wyoming, either. I should have stuck with my original 10 point prediction; Atlas got me gaslighted again.

[Beet]

Yes because you are hardcore Republican who wouldn't take anything for granted in Wyoming, either. I should have stuck with my original 10 point prediction; Atlas got me gaslighted again.

K, lol.

Care to name any MT Democrats you support?

[Beet]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

This is the easy answer. Instead of looking at vast swaths of the country disappearing from Democratic control over the course of a decade, and Republican governments in states like Wisconsin and Kansas utterly DECIMATING the livelihoods of their voters, it's far easier to say that either you've just lost one giant group of voters forever and/or that rural folk just decided to become anti-establishment for no apparent reason besides spite. It can't possibly be that Democrats lost their way with rural voters and fell out of touch when it wouldn't support the policies that would alleviate their economic stress.

If the answer for the Democratic Party's future lies in suburban "Panera bread" districts, then it has no future. As soon as Trump's out of office, most likely before or after 2020, these anti-Trump Republicans that are voting for guys like Ossoff are going to go back to voting Republican. That could happen as soon as 2022. Suburban voters don't support liberal policies. They don't even support centrist policies like Obamacare that tried to balance private health insurance with Medicare. Suburban voters have, throughout history, been some of the biggest breeders of fascism in multiple countries including our own.

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

[Beet]

The AP still hasn't called it, but NY Times has projected GF as the winner. I'm also calling it for the GOP.

Lol. This race was over hours ago.

[Beet]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

LOL at the notion that Hillary was a Justice/Bel Edwards/Manchin-style centrist. Maybe she was in 1996 or even 2008, but Bernie pushed her so far to the left she was unrecognizable.

[Beet]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

I've known people are terrible since I was a kid. White Americans have been up to now, and even now, better than most people. You guys elected a N_g__ president. How many countries would that happen? Even Sonia Gandhi had to step down in 2004. You haven't seen Chinese people. Their nationalism is off the charts. But I've always known that the masses are not decent, anywhere.

That's why it's always bothered me that for the past 14 years, since Howard Dean's campaign in 2003, you've always had "progressives" -- whether it was Markos or Thomas Frank back in the day, or Sanders more recently -- attack the Democrats for being too moderate and compromising when they should just "stand up for their values." "I'd rather someone who says what they thinks, even if they lose," they always say. If I stood up for my values I'd be crushed. I've known that since I was 13 years old. That's what I think. I think Bill Clinton knew that too, which is why he did what he did. I feel sorry that so many hate him now. The only thing we can hope for is half a loaf of bread and gradual, incremental change.

[Beet]

Now that the election is done and dusted, I think it's time to showcase some of the highlights of the great minds on Breitbart comments:

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http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/05/25/greg-gianforte-montana-special-election-win/

And so on...

I'm becoming a gun owner.

Eh, I've had that thought, but probably not the best idea. Also re: your signature, I agreed the masses are not decent, but individuals are still mostly decent.

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Oh I am more lucid than I have ever been in my life. The 7 point win was exactly my prediction right before assaultgate. I finally overcame the 1,000 gaslighting mofos saying I'm crazy and decided to believe the evidence I observe rather than what people say.

[Beet]

    One question to ponder is what would have happened had it been a Democrat doing the body slamming.  How would Dem voters have responded to their candidate?  Would they have stayed home or voted for an alternative  or still supported their candidate?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say not too much different than Montana GOP voters did.

You're too far out on that limb. We don't know what would have happened, but the Democrats didn't run a candidate who thought it'd be a good idea to attack someone.