My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[Beet]

Is Lieberman's economic viewpoints really as leftwing was Gephardt's? Because I doubt it.

[Beet]

According to a financial futures market, Intrade.com, where investors put their money where their predictions are, Howard Dean is given a 55% chance to win the Iowa caucus, to the great dismay of those who believe in (1) a campaign with a message, and (2) preventing a conservative landslide this year. The US is becoming an ultraconservtive state and the future debate may be between conservatives and fascists.

Gephardt and Kerry both at 25, Edwards at 8.

[Beet]

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I would prefer not to be negative but Dean does do worse than the other candidates in the polls against Bush and a defeat for him would take many other representatives at the national and state level due to the coattail effect. Also his plan for repealing middle class tax cuts would be not only unpopular but I don't agree with them. So objectively speaking I think it would be bad if Dean won the nomination. And although the other candidates voted for war authorization, that doesn't mean they supported the war as it was carried out so I dont think it necessarily means great division. Dean himself has promised to endorse whomever wins if it was not him.

[Beet]

Here are my predictions:

Dean         31%
Kerry         24%
Gephardt  23%
Edwards   20%


Although the Des Moines Register poll has Dean in third, the Zogby poll paints a different picture. It has Dean surging by 4 points from 19 to 23 percent in just two days. In contrast, Kerry (at 24) and Edwards's (at 18) surges have been blunted, and the Gephardt (at 19) campaign does not seem to be making any headway-- he has good organization and will be able to rely on union turnout, and it'll be enough to beat expectations based on polls but not enough to beat Dean. Remember the number of dedicated voters where therefore be tremendously important.

But with at least 10 percent of all voters remain undecided, it is today's suicide bombing in Baghdad, the worst since Saddam Hussein's capture, the first in the U.S.-controlled "green line", that comes just one day before the crucial Iowa caucuses, that gives Dean the last minute boost he needs.

I always say that I have bad feelings about the candidate that Karl Rove once cheered for ("Go Dean! Yeah, he's the one we want!"), and this attack may help Bush by helping Dean. Islamic attacks have a history of helping hardline candidates. In 1980, Iranian revolutionaries held the hostages just long enough to spite Carter. In 1995-96, a series of devastating bus bombings just before the 1996 Israeli election brought down the Shamir government. In 2000, the breakdown of Camp David talks and the outbreak of the Palestinian intifada may have been just enough to cost Al Gore the election in Florida. The Sept. 11 terror attacks and the October 2002 sniper shootings certainly helped Republicans in that year's election. It looks like the cycle is repeating itself again.

Finally, Dean remains at the top of the Intrade futures market, with investors giving him 49.00 versus 22.00 for Kerry, 15.00 for Gephardt, and just 7.00 for Edwards.

[Beet]

Zogby update-

Kerry - 25
Dean - 22
Edwards - 21
Gephardt - 18
Undecided - 9

Pollster John Zogby: "Kerry continues to poll strong. Remember, he started with just 14% a week ago. Dean seems to have bottomed out and moved almost back to where he was. His support among the youngest voters and self-identified liberals appears to be solid. Gephardt rebounded with a good day of polling and he remains the favorite among the oldest voters. And Edwards had another good day.

Intrade futures market

Dean - 39
Kerry - 38
Gephardt - 10
Edwards - 8

I still think Dean will win decisively but that doesn't mean I hope he will.

[Beet]

so it's "anyone". Heh. I used to be adamantly anti-Dean but now I'm having my doubts. Dean is the only candidate who really stands up to Bush. The other candidates so far have been uninteresting in that respect.