UK Election 2010

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Ah, I was wondering when this might start up (considering the comments Mr. Brown made yesterday) and for once I am ahead of the game (both on the 2005 boundaries and the 2007 boundries). All of which poses the question though, which set of boundaries will the next election be contested on?

What did Brown say?

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I expect significant Liberal Democrat losses.

Why? Does Menzies Campbell have something to do with it?

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I'd much rather we had a referendum on the EU constitution this year or early next than a GE.

Although Sarkozy's (and now the EUs) mini-treaty will be ratified by parliaments

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At the moment Labour seem resurgent under Gordon Brown and it feels like Cameron's 'honeymoon period' with the electorate is definitely over.  I still think that Cameron has to prove himself in terms of experience and clout - that will clearly be the Labour line of attack; that he is inexperience, has no policies and comes from a privileged background.

To win I think Labour basically need not to screw up terribly - which is difficult for a government in power after 12 years (if the election is in 2009).  Getting us out of Iraq eventually and a slight chance of emphasis could win back many traditional Labour defectors from the Lib Dems last time round. 

The Liberal Democrats themselves seem to be suffering from a loss of initiative - the revitalisation of the Conservatives under Cameron and Labour under Brown to a lesser extent mean their share of the vote and seats seem bound to fall at this point.  A recent YouGov poll put them at just 12% of the vote. 

12%! damn it! That'd be the lowest Lib Dem score ever!

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I have a question concerning smaller parties not concerned by swing-o-metres.

Will RESPECT hold its only seat with Galloway retiring?

Will Ind-KHHC win again?

Can Plaid pick up the seat it loss in 2005? (To LIBs I believe)

In Northern Ireland- Will SDLP and UUP win re-election in their only seats?

Any chance of a Green pickup?

Any chance of a UKIP pickup?

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http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16536

This poll is quite interesting with Labour at 40%, although I personally think it's not very accurate.

Putting these numbers into Electoral calculus gives Labour 382 seats, 201 Conservatives, and only 38 Lib Dems.

On a side note- any other good seat prediction site?

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How exactly do you figure out the seat numbers?

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Perhaps then, we wouldn't get dunderheads coming up with such gems along the lines of If most of Scotland is orange and most of England blue, how do we get a Labour government? . Well ... A lot of people live in those red bits !

I love that quote, was a gem!

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It's a very poor quality REAL MEDIA file and as a result you can't see it in detail but pause this file at 24 seconds and you'll see what I mean

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1375000/video/_1376893_polls18_snow_vi.ram (Needs Real Player to play)

I've always loved the BBC's electoral coverage of UK elections with swingometres, and maps etc. If only France or Canada could get like the UK...

Especially France, our electoral reporting sucks.

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May I ask a question about NI? Why do the Conservatives run candidates in a few NI constituencies?

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Could anybody tell me how the seat distribution would have been with the August 1997 poll average (Lab 56%, Con 26.5%, LD 13.5%, Other 4%)?

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An election campaign in the UK in October and an also likely-ish campaign in Canada for general election would be interesting.

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I'd like to see a 4 way race between Gordan Brown, David Cameron, Mayor Livingston, and Nick Griffin.

Enlighten me on which party Mayor Livingston founded.

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The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

They actually won a directly-elected mayor in June.

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The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

They actually won a directly-elected mayor in June.

Freak result caused by bizarre circumstances and the stupid electoral system. And since his election he's gone on to make a bloody fool of himself - repeatedly.

FPTP virtually locks them out anyway. They'll probably come in 6th nationwide behind the Greens, UKIP and the BNP.

Well, yeah. Even the Greens, UKIP and BNP have limited chance at a seat though the Greenies chances are slightly higher than the UKIP and BNP's chances.

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The idea that UKIP will win 3-10 seats is laughable. They have a 'shot' at a maximum of 1-3 seats or so. And don't give me the "but the UKIP won 16% in the Euros!!!1" line since the UKIP's 16% in 2004 sure won them a whole lot of seats in 2005!

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Also, I don't see why UKIP won't win at least one seat, given their current popularity.

Yeah, those 16% for the UKIP in 2004 sure did translate into a sh**tload of seats!

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You could do it like the Austrians do, organize a ton of debates including a massive one with everybody at the end. Like Lab-LD, Lab-Con, Con-LD, Lab-UKIP, Con-UKIP, LD-UKIP and so forth

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I wonder if somebody could post some sort of constituency guide with info on each seat's demographics and societal makeup as we get closer to the elections. I like those things.

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I wonder if somebody could post some sort of constituency guide with info on each seat's demographics and societal makeup as we get closer to the elections. I like those things.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seats-a-d

That has seat-by-seat info from the 2001 census

I don't want census info. I want a written profile of each seat.

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Somebody tell me all there is to know about Nick Palmer. He finds my blog very interesting and well written, according to a comment he posted on politicalbetting.com

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Is Berwick-upon-Tweed's LibDem-voting patterns based on an old Liberal tradition or more on actual social demographics favourable to the LibDems?

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What's the last day for an election to be held again?

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I'd be interested in the teacher numbers for 2005, if they're available. I'm sure Labour won them in a landslide.

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With the prospects of a hung parliament, how a Tory-LibDem cabinet can be? Cable as Chancellor? What cabinet portfolio that Clegg can choice?

There will be no official 'coalition'.