Canada 2008: Official Thread

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Which two ridings do they have a deal [qm]

Central Nova and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. In the former, no Liberal candidate is opposing May. In Dion's riding, there's no Greenie.

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Which two ridings do they have a deal [qm]

Central Nova and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. In the former, no Liberal candidate is opposing May. In Dion's riding, there's no Greenie.

I also read somewhere that the Tories aren't running a candidate against Independent Andre Arthur in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier.  They don't want to risk splitting the federalist vote, or so the story goes.

Arthur is a crazy fascist-lite Tory.

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I'm not predicting a May victory right now. But she'll get very close, and like Verily, I wouldn't fall off my chair if she won.

It will also be interesting to compare the result in BGOS with the 2007 result there.

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I'm not predicting a May victory right now. But she'll get very close, and like Verily, I wouldn't fall off my chair if she won.

It will also be interesting to compare the result in BGOS with the 2007 result there.

They're not really comparable; BGOS was a very safe PC seat, so the Greens needed to take a lot of votes directly from the PCs. Not so in Central Nova; May needs some switchers from MacKay, but mostly she needs to squeeze down the NDP and win over the Liberals.

Oh, I certainly wasn't pointing out BGOS as a Green pickup opportunity like Central Nova. I was just saying that it will be interesting to see how high the Greenie vote is there compared to '07.

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Seems like all major parties have nominated a candidate in my riding.

Mauril Bélanger, Liberal. Incumbent since 1995 by-election.
Patrick Glémaud, Conservative. Haitian born. Looking at his internetz page, he sounds like a typical Republican (family fluff, tough on crime, low taxes). And God, he's ugly.
Trevor Haché, NDP. I could've sworn it would've been Ric Dagenais. Who cares. But unlike Dagenais, he seems to be able to write French.
Akbar Manoussi, Greenie. Iranian descent and Muslim. Seems decent. Was GPO candidate in Orleans in 07.
Mike St-Onge, CAP. Joke who is running for a fascist 9/11 conspiracy theorist party. Ran in St-Hyacinthe-Bagot by-election in 07 for the CAP.

It seems like the Stalinists haven't nominated a candidate yet. They've run in every election since '93.

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Which two ridings do they have a deal [qm]

Central Nova and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. In the former, no Liberal candidate is opposing May. In Dion's riding, there's no Greenie.

I also read somewhere that the Tories aren't running a candidate against Independent Andre Arthur in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier.  They don't want to risk splitting the federalist vote, or so the story goes.

The Greens are also, as mentioned earlier, not running a candidate against Bill Casey (basically so May can hammer MacKay on the Atlantic Accord).

Wait! Did the Greens make an agreement with any party?

Yes. The Libs. As mentioned earlier.

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Seems like all major parties have nominated a candidate in my riding.

Mauril Bélanger, Liberal. Incumbent since 1995 by-election.
Patrick Glémaud, Conservative. Haitian born. Looking at his internetz page, he sounds like a typical Republican (family fluff, tough on crime, low taxes). And God, he's ugly.
Trevor Haché, NDP. I could've sworn it would've been Ric Dagenais. Who cares. But unlike Dagenais, he seems to be able to write French.
Akbar Manoussi, Greenie. Iranian descent and Muslim. Seems decent. Was GPO candidate in Orleans in 07.
Mike St-Onge, CAP. Joke who is running for a fascist 9/11 conspiracy theorist party. Ran in St-Hyacinthe-Bagot by-election in 07 for the CAP.

It seems like the Stalinists haven't nominated a candidate yet. They've run in every election since '93.

I thought the CAP were the Social Credit true believers. When did they become 9/11 conspiracy theorists?

Yeah. They're SoCreds too. In 2006, they added a thing on a 'truth commission' on 9/11 to their platform.

Their website counts 9/11 as a major electoral issue.

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Ekos will be doing it's polling by robot it seems, from what I read on their site, and overheard at work today. What a stupid idea It'll be interesting to see what whacky results it'll produce.

My trash can is ready to welcome their polls.

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On the subject, the Libs are having trouble finding candidates in Quebec apparently. Only 45/75 when I last checked.

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On the subject, the Libs are having trouble finding candidates in Quebec apparently. Only 45/75 when I last checked.

Boo!

What is the Bloc's relationship with the Conservatives like? I know they aren't close ideologically but would they ever form a coalition if needed?

After what Duceppe said about Harper in the kickoff to his campaign, I have a lot of trouble seeing him work with the Forces of Darkness.

Angus Reid has some crap out.

Con: 38
Lib: 24
NDP: 21
BQ: 9
Green: 7

Haha. Direction: trash can.

According to that poll, the NDP is at 18% in Quebec, with the Liberals at 12%. Lol.

Is there anything bad about MB that I should know?

Yes. It includes Winnipeg. *gasp*


BTW, the Greenies will participate in the leaders' debate after all. The NDP and the Forces of Darkness have backed down.

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http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=R2hHbaE0yqY

Dear Leader's ad. (Now pulled).

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On the subject, the Libs are having trouble finding candidates in Quebec apparently. Only 45/75 when I last checked.

On their website, they have 72/75 candidates in Quebec. Only Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik--Eeyou, Manicouagan and Repentigny are missing.

Pundits' Guide reported only 46 at 16:00 today, and jumped to 70 right now.

Weird.

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btw, nominations progress

Libs 272/307 (88%)
NDP 196/308 (64%)
Greenies 151/306 (49%)
Bloc 57/75
Cons 291/308 (94%)

Ind 13
Others 54

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Wasn't there some talk a few years ago of the Bloc running candidates in some of the Francophone ridings in the Maritimes and Saskatchewan? I seem to recall reading it somewhere.

It is the Bloc Quebecois, not the Bloc Francophone.

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Serious pollsters alert.

Nanos
Con 37
Lib 32
NDP 13
Bloc 9
Greenies 9

No regional breakdown.

Other less serious pollsters.

EKOS
Con 37
Lib 32
NDP 19
Bloc 8
Greenies 10

EKOS also gives a seat projection
Con 152
Lib 82
NDP 37
Bloc 33

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/ekos-first-seat-projection/

Seat projections in 2006 were quite awful IIRC.

Another slightly more serious projection by UBC
Con 145
Lib 85
NDP 42
Bloc 32
Others 4

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Does UBC have a breakdown of which seats they expect to switch? That looks awfully generous to the NDP, and also to the Liberals in Quebec (who I assume they have taking a bunch of seats from the Bloc, not going to happen).

No.

I'm also wondering about their 4 Other seats. There's Maurice Duplessis Jr. in there for sure, maybe Bill Casey, maybe 2 Greenies (May and Wilson?).

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Jolley (is he running?)

Apparently not.

(Personally, I think Wilson is doomed, although second place isn't out of the question.)

I agree.

A lot of the Greens' performance depends on the Leaders' Debate. As I've mentioned before, about half of all Canadians have no idea what to think of May, but almost everyone has made up their minds about the other four. It'll be interesting to see how that affects Green numbers post-debate.

Rick Mercer seems to think (he's being serious) that May will do quite good in the debate, predominantly against Harper.

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Is André Arthur not running again?

Yes he is. And the Tories are not running one of their own against him.

He's a Tory anyways. And a bit more fascist.

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He'll be included in the four.

He is referred to as "Maurice Duplessis Jr."

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Harris-Decima, which seems to prefer joke status, has the Forces of Darkness at 41%.

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An update on Bill Casey's riding.

Since I was bored, I looked up the candidates.

Apart from him, the Conservatives are running Joel Bernard. He is from New Brunswick and lives in Orleans (next door to Ottawa). I doubt he's even been to Cumberland-Colchester. Lol.

The Liberals are running Tracy Parsons, the former leader of the Progressive Canadian thingee that has since been almost entirely absorbed into the Liberal Party.

Safe Indie.

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Laurier University prediction map:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Their Maritime predictions are a bit silly.

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What's with EKOS and their higher numbers for the NDP?

We're seeing conflicting analysis of the first week. EKOS and some others say the Tories are losing points, and Harris-Decima says they're gaining and on the verge of a majority.

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It's also strange that the Canada debate will take place on the same time as the Biden/Palin VP debate.

Judging by how boring the first week has been, I wouldn't be surprised if the US debate captured more audiences than the federal debate in Canada.

I've only seen one TV ad- a Lib Green Shift thingee.

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Laurier University prediction map:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Their Maritime predictions are a bit silly.

This site is a joke. According to them, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel will vote liberal. That is in dark red on the map. That is ridiculous, this is a BQ riding 1993. Liberals were third in 2006 with 13,4% and 20684 votes away from the winner.

Oh, indeed. I didn't notice that. Lol.

As my grand-aunt would say, faut pas regarder de trop pres.

An update on Bill Casey's riding.

Since I was bored, I looked up the candidates.

Apart from him, the Conservatives are running Joel Bernard. He is from New Brunswick and lives in Orleans (next door to Ottawa). I doubt he's even been to Cumberland-Colchester. Lol.

The Liberals are running Tracy Parsons, the former leader of the Progressive Canadian thingee that has since been almost entirely absorbed into the Liberal Party.

Safe Indie.

Joel Bernard is fantastic! I'm a massive fan!

What has he done except being a carpetbagger?