Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hash]

Google has a hard time finding other relevant Joel Bernards. Facebook found a person with a baby picture (I wouldn't be surprised if he was the Tory candidate).

[Hash]

The Bloc is not losing only four seats.

[Hash]

Ipsos gives the Liberals a 7 point lead in Ontario and the Bloc a 10 point lead in Quebec.

[Hash]

Harper was in Newfoundland today. Needless to say, Williams wasn't waiting for him at his arrival.

[Hash]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

That's quite an interesting combo of support right there.

I just found this gem: http://www.ndp4tory.ca/

[Hash]

Demographic maps! Yay

I'm working on Montreal and Laval. I'll do Ottawa after that. And then maybe Vancouver.

[Hash]

Dear God.

[Hash]

Angus-Reid has officially earned 'joke pollster' status. Harris-Decima, meet Zogby.

Their BC numbers
Con 36
Green 26
NDP 24
Liberal 13

More sh**t here: http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.09.13_ARPW.pdf

[Hash]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

That's quite an interesting combo of support right there.

Why? They're both centre-left parties.

Je n'aime pas les verts

The NDP and Liberals don't get along very well.

[Hash]

Angus-Reid has officially earned 'joke pollster' status. Harris-Decima, meet Zogby.

Their BC numbers
Con 36
Green 26
NDP 24
Liberal 13

More sh**t here: http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.09.13_ARPW.pdf

It's funny that they can actually have really reasonable numbers like those for Quebec and Alberta while then obviously being completely wrong in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada.

For fun, I applied the numbers to the Hill and Knowlton predictor (which has its issues too).

We get
NDP 19
Con 13
Green 4
Liberal 0

Lolz.

[Hash]

A few Quebec polls (most from jokes) show the NDP higher in Quebec than in Ontario.

[Hash]

Gabu's dad?

Blair Longley is in the federal Marijuana Party.

[Hash]

Gabu's dad?

Blair Longley is in the federal Marijuana Party.

And still the current leader of it IIRC. This guy is probably a former leader.

I think so. I don't know for sure because the Marijuana Party doesn't amuse me as it did in 2004. The Newfoundland and Labrador First Party is more amusing.

The guy in question is the former leader of the BC Marijuana Party.

[Hash]

Update on the battleground thingees: http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html

Liberals now tied with Forces of Darkness in ON, Bloc is in the lead for Quebec, and Tories still lead BC.

[Hash]

I hope the Tories lose a few points in the next few polls in the light of Gerry Ritz's incompetence and disgusting comments, and also the Tories contempt for Native Americans.

[Hash]

im interested in what you experts think about the west nova riding.

It will be interesting to see whether the Atlantic Accord hits the Conservatives in NS.

[Hash]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

[Hash]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

Does anyone here have seat-by-seat predictions?

The Election Prediction Project does - and they're usually pretty accurate.  As of right now, they're projecting Tories 111
Grits 71
Bloc 29
NDP 18
Others 2 (both independents)
Too Close 77

Election Prediction is the best for seat predictions.

[Hash]

I'd put Ottawa-Orleans in the tossup category.

[Hash]

So, you're predicting about 16ish Tories in Quebec? More reasonable than the '38' I heard somebody say on the telly (though I think it was a Tory hack).

I'm unsure about your Gatineau call for the NDP.

[Hash]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

[Hash]

Nominations have closed.

The Stalinists are running in Ottawa-Vanier

[Hash]

Pundit's Guide says every party has nominated the number of candidates they committed too.

[Hash]

Pundit's Guide says every party has nominated the number of candidates they committed too.

the Green's only committed to 305 seats? why are they sitting out of one in BC?

I think Pundit's Guide did not add the Green candidate in Cariboo – Prince George. Elections Canada, which is the best source for this, has one Greenie running there.

[Hash]

Greenies at 2? No way. Nanos is losing it.