Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Lief 🗽]

NDP popular vote ticking up again now.

[Lief 🗽]

LOL, so much for the Texas of Canada.

I mean, if the Tea Party ran its own candidates in Texas, Democrats might win there too...

[Lief 🗽]

Lesser Slave Lake is a real nailbiter.

[Lief 🗽]

hahaha prentice looks so pissed

[Lief 🗽]

"Rachel Notley and the NDP Party" lol

also who the hell doesn't wear a tie on election night, stupid CEO-politicians.

[Lief 🗽]

lol he's resigning

I wonder if the NDP could win the Calgary-Foot Hills by-election?

[Lief 🗽]

The Liberal audience at David Swann's speech is cheering the NDP victory hahah

And Swann just sort of compared the PC dynasty to a third world dictatorship

Swann: "I'd like to thank David Prentice for serving this province so well. "

[Lief 🗽]

David Swann seems awesome, he should just join the NDP.

[Lief 🗽]

9 vote margin in Chestermere, the earmuff district around Calgary. The result there will really affect how nice the map ends up looking.

[Lief 🗽]

This Brian Jean is an awful public speaker...

[Lief 🗽]

Peace River just went orange on the CBC map. The map looks much nicer now.

good, good (for both political and map aesthetic reasons)

[Lief 🗽]

"I haven't done the math yet but [1 minute of cheering] we've elected the most women ever."

yaaassss

[Lief 🗽]

Peace River: 129 vote lead for NDP, 2 boxes left.

Excellent. And Lesser Slave Lake?

NDP should win there. Up almost 500 with 5 precincts left.

[Lief 🗽]

Were there any polls that asked people who their second preferences were? There's a guy on my twitter feed saying Wild Rose/PCs would have won if Alberta used IRV, and I want to see if that's true.

[Lief 🗽]

Calgary-Glenmore is actually an exact tie atm

[Lief 🗽]

NDP up again (by 32) in Calgary-Glenmoore

[Lief 🗽]

NDP WINS PEACE RIVER!

[Lief 🗽]

If  the PC and WRP parties merged you will get the following results:


PC-WRP - 60 seats
NDP - 25
LIB - 1
AP - 1

That's assuming the PC and WRP voters will vote for a merge party.

They wouldn't; NDP was the second choice of more WRP voters.

[Lief 🗽]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

NDP would have won under IRV too (though maybe with a few less seats). NDP was the second choice of WRP voters.

[Lief 🗽]

If Alberta had regional PR...

North:
NDP: 4
PC: 3
WRP: 4

C. Edmonton:
NDP: 9
PC: 2

Outer Edmonton:
NDP: 7
PC: 2
WRP: 1

West Central:
NDP: 3
PC: 3
WRP: 4

East Central:
NDP: 3
PC: 3
WRP: 2

South:
NDP: 4
PC: 3
WRP: 4

C. Calgary:
NDP: 5
PC: 4
WRP: 2
Lib: 1

Outer Calgary:
NDP: 5
PC: 5
WRP: 4

Total:
NDP: 40
PC: 25
WRP: 21
Lib: 1

NDP minority.

[Lief 🗽]

Had there been a WR / PC merger like was rumored back in Dec. it could have significantly altered the outcome of this election. Assuming the new combined party neither gained nor lost votes but had exactly the same number of votes, ED's 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,13,15,17,19,20,21,23,24,48,49,60,67,72,74,75,76,81,82,85,86 and 87 would have been flipped from NDP to the new combined center-right party.

MERGED WR / PC = 60 seats
NDP = 25 seats

Once my exams are done I'm gonna do the math and see what would have happened under IRV. According to at least one poll I found with second preferences, NDP actually narrowly led PCs in WRP second preferences, but WRP was the clear second preference of PC voters. So it'll be interesting to see how the seats would have shaken out.