Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Lief 🗽]

Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.

Yep, that's JJ.

[Lief 🗽]

Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.

Yep, that's JJ.

Because Lunar insists on putting two bad polls up and treating then differently, because one has an association with a left wing "publication" while the other doesn't.

In other words, if you behave like hacks, you'll be treated hacks. 

Now, Lunar can list them as he does, and they will be fixed.  Or Lunar can post them as just data and leave it that.

If you wish to show your bias, your bias will be illustrated.

For the seven millionth time, R2k is a non-partisan polling firm. DKos has nothing to do with running the polls, except for paying R2k. Markos has no incentive to ask R2k to skew the results, and I seriously doubt a respected polling institution like R2k would even do that.

[Lief 🗽]

Also, if you average all of those together, Obama gained slightly from yesterday. So, I think it's too early to say the race is "tightening." It may be settling down a bit, but I don't think there's any indication that it'll shift back to a tossup race at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

On your second point, I would say the polling did tightening last weekend, through yesterday, but seems to have stabilized, at least today.  I'm not seeing any additional tightening. 

It tightened from like 6-8 points to 5-7 points. Not really that big a deal.

[Lief 🗽]

R2000/Kos
See Hotline, except add political issues.  Also add the standard R2000 slight Dem bias.

You people are annoying.

[Lief 🗽]

Zogby's great.

[Lief 🗽]

Zogster
Obama 50.3%(+.5)
McCain 42.4%(-2)

ZOGBY SHOCK: OBAMA UP 8

[Lief 🗽]

DailyKos/Research2000:
Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

The last three days were Obama +8 Sun, +9 Mon and +12 Tues.

Dems also hold a 49-34 lead in the generic Congressional ballot and McCain's net favorables are at an all time low of -10.

[Lief 🗽]

Thanks for the daily tracker...tracker, Sam.

^^^ Ditto, it's very convenient.

[Lief 🗽]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, McCain stopped gaining today. He's lost.

[Lief 🗽]

obamamentum

[Lief 🗽]

DRUDGE BECOMES INCREASINGLY PATHETIC SELF-PARODY

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also a two-candidate race, John...

[Lief 🗽]

Minor observation:

I made the observation before the election that the number of undecideds was large and that therein would lie the polling issues.  Since most pollsters pushed the undecideds, we were left assuming that they would truly go where they did.

In the end, they did go where they did. 

However, the polls that didn't push them as hard as, say, Rasmussen or Pew did in the end, ended up underestimating him at the end by a couple of points.  That's the extent of the Bradley Effect now (not much).

Of course, Gallup f.ucked up the undecided pushing yet again.

Late deciders split 50-50.

[Lief 🗽]

So have we figured out yet why McCain did a couple of percent better than the polls in general, apparently?  You know what?  We might not really know. Oh the horror, the horror!  By the way, Obama will be close to a 7% lead before this is all over I suspect.

Historically, it's common for the candidate with a large lead to overpoll a small amount. Yes, even the whites ones, JJ.