Let the great boundary rejig commence

[minionofmidas]

Dorset & Hampshire, changes in cursive.

Dorset North 74,031
Dorset West 76,877
Dorset South 73,168
unchanged, though it might make sense to transfer Chickerell (4418) from W to S.
Dorset Mid & Poole North 72,081 (barely legal)
gains Creekmoor
Poole 77,957
gains Alderney and Branksome East lost to a Bournemouth seat at the last review, loses Creekmoor
Bournemouth South 79,014
compared to Bournemouth East, gains Central, Westbourne & West Cliff, Talbot & Branksome Woods, Winton East
Bournemouth North 75,025
remainder of city, portion of East Dorset currently in Christchurch except St Leonards & St Ives E and W wards.
Christchurch & Ringwood 75,268
Christchurch district, St Leonards & St Ives (61% of constituency), Bashley and points north in current New Forest West constituency and the Bramshaw etc ward from New Forest East
Lymington and Hythe 78,547
Remainder of New Forest West, Lyndhurst, Brockenhurst & Forest SE, Butts Ash & Dibden Purlieu and points south
Southampton Itchen 74,720+x
Gains part of Swaythling ward (9140)
Southampton Test 71,712+x
Gains part of Swaythling ward
Romsey & Totton 79,471
Remainder of New Forest, Bassett ward in Southampton, southern part of Test Valley as far as Blackwater and Ampfield & Braishfield
Eastleigh 77,320
unchanged
Hampshire North West 79,638
Gains Harewood and Over Wallop. Rewarding in Basingstoke & whatevsky has left 138 voters in a Hampshire NE based ward. I've transferred them out.
Basingstoke 75,108
unchanged
Farnborough 77,039
Adding the right kind of pop. to Aldershot proved difficult, so I've split the area n-s instead.
This is Rushmoor excluding St Mark's and points south, Blackwater & Hawley, Hartley Wintney, Hook and points north and for numerical balance also Long Sutton in Hart, and the area north of Basingstoke (but see NW)
Aldershot (or Aldershot, Fleet & Alton to clearly indicate the strongly redrawn character) 79,383
Remainder of Rushmoor, remainder of Hart, remaining one ward south of Basingstoke, and Holybourne & Froyle and the Alton town wards of East Hampshire
Hampshire East 79,054
Remainder of district, The Alresfords ward of Winchester
Gosport 75,841
Drops the bit of Fareham it currently includes (Stubbington) but picks up a slightly larger different one instead - Portchester. Across Portsmouth Harbour, I know, but Cams Hall Estate is bizarrely not included in any ward and the little residential area north of it is in a Portchester ward, so there's a tentative land connection.
Fareham 78,247
Remainder of district, Whiteley and Wickham wards of Winchester
Winchester 76,578
Current constituency, Broughton & Stockbridge, Kings Somborne & Michelmersh, Dun Valley wards of Test Valley
Meon Valley & Cosham 75,594
Current Meon Valley constituency excluding East Hampshire portion, Whiteley, Wickham; Stakes ward in Havant, Cosham and Paulsgrove wards in Portsmouth
Havant 72,758
Loses Stakes, gains Drayton & Farlington in Portsmouth
Portsmouth North 72,225
Loses the three mainland wards, gains Fratton, Charles Dickens, Saint Thomas
Portsmouth South & Ryde 75,160
Remainder of Portsmouth (50.4% of constituency), Wootton Bridge, Havenstreet etc, Brading etc, Sandown South wards and points north east
Isle of Wight (or Wight West) 72,968
Remainder

[minionofmidas]

To be fair, it's not really less isolated than the mainland Highlands, and although it's not received much coverage they'll be protected too. Probably because they feared Charlie Kennedy would defect otherwise.

The right thing to do would of course be to grant Wight two seats, elected by STV. I really don't see any other arrangement that doesn't screw *some* basic democratic principle.

[minionofmidas]

The two earlier proposals for Wales assumed 29 seats. It appears there will be 30.

Of the two proposals this one received a modicum of support from the experts-that-be, so I will use it as a base. However, there's no precise ward lists and it appears to be based on 2005 electorates, so will have to be retraced and in some cases amended.
(The above-average electorates appear to be concentrated in the southeast, so that's where the additional seat will be.)

[minionofmidas]

Surprises, surprises. Maybe the southwest outside of Llanelli simply has had a fair bit of growth in the past couple of years, but the proposal's "Teifi" seat (crossing into Carmarthenshire as well as Pembrokeshire) appears unnecessary.

Penfro 74,651
County excluding Scleddau, Dinas Cross, Maenclochog and points northeast.
Ceredigion & Preseli 73,876
Ceredigion, remainder of Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen 74,776
Carmarthenshire excluding current Llanelli constituency. Which will still be paired with Gower areas, but less of it now that Burry Port is still in.

Incidentally, because Wales was rather narrowly awarded that 30th seat and there's no nation-specific quota, the average seat in Wales will be only 74,676 residents but the available range will stil be 72,069 to 79,658.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure if cutting up the Gower (which seems to be preordained from that post) is a good idea.

Got a better one? Which 18,000 electors would you most like to be seen drawn into Dyfed? I'm open to suggestions, you know. Going by ancient history it ought to be Brecon, btw.

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm... coming down from the north though, the Syniadau proposals work out fairly (seemingly) reasonable there too. Though I didn't do the illdescribed transfer of a little bit of southwest Brecon into Neath, and did do the Machynlleth transfer proposed elsewhere (it was that or Bethesda). If I remove Brecon from the mix up north, I have to split up Ceredigion too. Or else expand that Powys South seat into Monmouthshire. (And yes, up to and including Brecon but no further is exactly as far as one would have to go.)

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm... coming down from the north though, the Syniadau proposals work out fairly (seemingly) reasonable there too.

Except for the part where there's no direct road links between Bangor and the Conwy Valley, of course, but who cares. Still a community of interest comparative Welshness when compared to Llandudno, Colwyn Bay et al.

[minionofmidas]

Gwynedd 76,049
Excluding Bangor, Bethesda, and that one rural ward east of them; includes Machynlleth, Glyntwymyn and Llanbrynmair wards of Powys.
Menai 76,501
Mona, Bangor/Bethesda, three westernmost coastal wards of Conwy (as far as Penmaenmawr, though that's not what the ward is called), Conwy Valley wards as far downstream as Caerhun and Eglwysbach. Syniadau name - I guess "Ynys Môn, Bangor & Nant Conwy" would be substituted.
Conwy 76,028
Remainder of council
Mold & Shotton (they called it "Flintshire" but that's very misleading. Might alternatively remain "Alyn & Deeside".) 76,872
Current constituency and from Delyn New Brighton, Mold, Gwernaffield and points south.
Rhuddlan 77,553
Remainder of Delyn; Dyserth, Rhuddlan, Bodelwyddan and points north in Vale of Clwyd
Wrexham 76,415
Minera, Coedpoeth, Esclusham, Marchwiel and points northeast
Denbigh & Powys North 74,728 (he called it North Powys and of course historically he's broadly correct - historical Denbighshire, except the northwestern end, is in Powys. I'm half inclined to name it Powys Fadog... though of course it extends into Powys Wenwynwyn. )
Remainder of Wrexham council , remainder of Denbighshire council from St Asaph on south,
Banwy, Llanfair Caereinion, Guilsfield, Welshpool, Forden and points north in Powys. 28% of constituency in Powys.
Powys South 76,333
Remainder (excluding also three wards round Machynlleth.)

There are 16,657 electors in Brecon town, Talybont-on-Usk, Maescar/Llywel and points southwest which might be paired with Carmarthen (though I'd still have to work out where the Carmarthen & Denbigh / Llanelli constituency boundary would go.)

[minionofmidas]

Carmarthenshire with bits of Denbigh Brecon works quite nicely.

Carmarthen & Denbigh Brecon 74,114
Carmarthen portion of W & S Pembrokeshire, E & Dinefwr excluding ten southerly wards (Gorslas, Llandybie and Quarter Bach wards as extremities probably describe the removed area well), four westernmost wards of current Llanelli (Burry Port and points nw), and that previously described removed Denbigh Breconshire area except the four wards in the very southwest corner of Powys (Ystradgynlais et al).
Llanelli & Vale of Amman 73,625
Remainder of Llanelli, ten Vale of Amman wards, four Ystradgynlais wards.

Now all I need to do is kink out Powys South... cause 18-seat Gwent and Glamorgan is 75k-odd per seat, just 400 above the Welsh average, without ceding random territory to Powys. (Yes, I know the southern Powys line is not the historical line of Denbigh Breconshire. The only reason to complain about that particular change is that it made Labour uncompetitive in Denbigh Brecon & Radnor constituency.) Meanwhile the seven northern seats I've drawn average 76.3k, which might drop to 74.2k for eight seats if Powys South' problems are wholly rectified in that direction.

EDIT: LOL!

[minionofmidas]

Changes in italics.

Gwynedd 73,661
Excluding Bangor, Bethesda, and that one rural ward east of them; includes the Machynlleth ward of Powys.
Menai 74,374
Mona, Bangor/Bethesda, two westernmost coastal wards of Conwy, Conwy Valley wards as far downstream as Caerhun and Eglwysbach. Syniadau name - I guess "Ynys Môn, Bangor & Nant Conwy" would be substituted.
Conwy 72,699
Coastal part of council except to westernmost wards. Llansanffraid is included.
Mold & Shotton (they called it "Flintshire" but that's very misleading. Might alternatively remain "Alyn & Deeside".) 76,872
Current constituency and from Delyn New Brighton, Mold, Gwernaffield and points south.
Rhuddlan 74,003
Remainder of Delyn, excluding also Cilcain and Caerwys; Dyserth, Rhuddlan, Bodelwyddan and points north in Vale of Clwyd
Wrexham 74,530
Brymbo, Coedpoeth, Esclusham, Marchwiel and points northeast
Denbigh 74,861
Remainder of Wrexham council, Cilcain and Caerwys wards of Flintshire, remainder of Denbighshire council from St Asaph on south, those four huge rural wards of eastern non-coastal Conwy (would it be accurate to group them as the Mynydd Hiraethog, or does that extend considerably further eastward?), and Llanwyddin, Llanfihangel, Meifod, Llandrinio and points north in Powys. 16% of constituency in Powys.
The constituency includes so many diverse rural places that to try and find a name that defines them all would be futile. Unless you want to go with "Clwyd South West & Powys North". At least I kept it out of the Maelor Sasnaig.
Powys 72,822
Remainder (excludes also Brecon town, Talybont-on-Usk, Maescar/Llywel and points southwest)

I'll have to make a map to see how bad this will all be (because any map of Wales based on these rules will be bad. It's a question of least-badness, I think).

You absolutely will have to make a map. I insist on it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Except for the part where there's no direct road links between Bangor and the Conwy Valley, of course, but who cares. Still a community of interest comparative Welshness when compared to Llandudno, Colwyn Bay et al.[/quote]

Couldn't you extend the Island/Bangor constituency to the Llanberis area instead? You would then have the bulk of the Caernarfonshire slate towns in the same constituency and avoid the insanity of having the Conwy Valley in the same constituency as Anglesey. I'm not sure if the figures work, though. Obviously the Conwy Valley remains a problem, but then it's been a problem for boundary reviews since the 1940s.[/quote]I'll have a look at it...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You were quite helpful with the Vale of Amman.

[minionofmidas]

Gwynedd 75,041
Excluding Pentir, Penisarwaun, Llanberis and points east; includes Conwy Valley as far downstream as Caerhun and Eglwysbach (but not Llansanffraid.)
Menai 72,994
Remainder of Gwynedd, Mona, two westernmost coastal wards of Conwy (Bryn and Pandy).

Alternatively Caerhun ward (1674 electors) could be included in Conwy or Menai instead of Gwynedd. Also, of course Glyntwymyn ward (1632) - which is sort of a Machynlleth Rural - is probably better off united with Machynlleth (1636) - be it in Gwynedd or Powys. If in Powys, then Caerhun is needed in Gwynedd. If in Gwynedd, we need to remove yet another ward from Rhuddlan to get Powys above quota again, presumable Bodelwyddan (1632. Yeah. All these wards are basically the same size.)
EDIT: Uh, no we don't. What we need to do is move another north Powys ward into Powys, and then possibly Bodelwyddan too depending on the size of said ward.


It's a good thing Welsh wards are so small. Otherwise this would really turn ugly.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, keeping Machynlleth in Powys makes one fewer council split, so I'm going with that.
Gwynedd 73,405
Powys 74,458

Also, for Gwent & Glamorgan, I'm going to do
4 seats in West Glamorgan : expanded Gower, core Swansea, and either a Neath & Port Talbot and a remainder or either an expanded Neath or expanded Aberavon and a remainder.
8 seats in South Glamorgan, Bridgend & RCT: 3 seats covering almost all of Cardiff, an expanded Rhondda, and expanded Cynon, an expanded Bridgend, a seat covering most of the Vale and possibly the small remainder of Cardiff, a strange leftovers seat in between everything.
6 seats in Gwent and Merthyr: Monmouth with some Newport suburbs, core Newport, BG expanded southward, an expanded Merthyr & Rhymney, and expanded Caerphilly, and a (possibly somewhat strange) remnant seat.

[minionofmidas]

Gower 72,069 (right on the minimum!)
Current Gower constituency except Clydach ward; Mayals ward of Swansea West; ex-Lliw Valley parts of Neath. (Wait: did that include Rhos and Alltwen across the Tawe River? Because they're not included here.)
Swansea West 73,517
Current constituency except Mayals; Cwmbwrla, Penderry
Swansea East & Aberavon 72,660
Current constituency except Cwmbwrla, Penderry; Clydach; Coedffranc, Briton Ferry, and Baglan and Aberavon wards of the core Port Talbot/Aberavon area.
Neath & Port Talbot 73,187
Neath constituency excluding the areas west of the Tawe; remaining parts of Aberavon.

[minionofmidas]

8 seats in South Glamorgan, Bridgend & RCT: 3 seats covering almost all of Cardiff, an expanded Rhondda, and expanded Cynon, an expanded Bridgend, a seat covering most of the Vale and possibly the small remainder of Cardiff, a strange leftovers seat in between everything.

Yeah, this is working out dreadfully.

[minionofmidas]

(I'll comment on rest later)

How are you trying to split Cardiff? Have you tried a return to the pattern of the 1950-1970 split?

I eliminated the semi-rural northwest bit, and then basically distributed Central among its neighbors (though moved Llandaf North to the western seat). The map I had there at one point was legal, but they were mostly at the larger end. And when I looked to Rhondda Cynon Taff and understood that no way could I expand Rhondda southward and create a district based on the Llynfi Valley that somehow extended into Cardiff... and that a district covering even a minimum definition of Rhondda, the Upper Ogwr Valley and the Llynfi Valley was at the upper end, meaning my remainders were too small to form a full seat... that's when I freaked a little and made the above post.

I've worked it out now, though. The Llynfi Valley needs to go into Bridgend. Which means Bridgend can't grow into any other direction - in fact it has to retreat marginally. I still came out with a too-small remnant district, but then I revisited Cardiff, shifted a lot more wards, and now it's looking good. Of course, I'd probably need to take a look at your Cardiff demographic maps to see who I'm shagging over.

[minionofmidas]

Bridgend & Maesteg 74,858
Current Bridgend constituency except Coity and Coychurch Lower; Llynfi Valley wards of Cefn Cribwr, Aberkenfig, Llangynwyd, Maesteg E and W, Caerau.
Rhondda & Ogwr Valley 74,265
Rhondda constituency, Tonyrefail East and West, Gilfach Goch, seven northeastern wards of Ogmore (Bettws as southwestern corner)
Pontypridd & Cynon Valley 74,985
Current Cynon Valley constituency, Ton-taeg, Graig, Rhondda ward and points east in Pontypridd. (Interesting name for a ward that lies just outside the Rhondda as it has been pretty much always defined... though I think it is the southern entrance to the Rhondda Valley.)
Cardiff North 79,094
Gains Llanrumney, Pentwyn, Cyncoed; loses Gabalfa, Llandaf North
Cardiff South East 73,239
Compared to current S & Penarth, loses Llanrumney, Grangetown, Penarth; gains Adamsdown, Plasnewydd, Penylan, Cathays
Cardiff West 74,114
Gains Grangetown, Gabalfa, Llandaf North; loses Creigiau/St Fagans, Radyr & Morganstown, Pentyrch.
Vale of Glamorgan 76,589
Excludes the four northernmost wards of Saint Bride's Major, Llandow/Ewenny, Cowbridge, Peterston-super-Ely and also (my last finishing touch to get the last seat over quota) Wenvoe.
Yeah, I've no idea what this would be called really. Ely Valley? A more truthful name would be "M4 west of Cardiff" 72,843
All the remaining bits of all four authorities, from Ynysawdre just north of Bridgend to the outskirts of Cardiff.

[minionofmidas]

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 77,253
Current constituency and the Bargoed area further down the Rhymney Valley, which is currently in Caerphilly and Islwyn constituencies (two wards in this area succesfully fought being transferred to Islwyn at the last review. What will they make of being put in with Merthyr? Though other wards were transferred, never had their position in doubt, or were in Islwyn from the start.) ie Aberbargoed, Bargoed, Gilfach, Saint Cattwg, Pengam, Cefn Fforest and Blackwood wards.
Blaenau Gwent 77,580
Similarly expanded down the valley of the Ebbw (and admittedly the edges of the Rhymney Valley as well) to take in Argoed, Penmaen, Crumlin, Newbridge, Abercarn and Pontllanfraith.
Caerphilly 77,935
Remainder of Caerphilly (most) and Islwyn (five wards); Newport wards of Rogerstone and Graig.
Torfaen 75,051
Borough; Caerleon ward of Newport
Monmouth 74,603
Borough; Langstone and Llanwern wards of Newport
Newport 77,320
Remainder

[minionofmidas]

This latter worked like a charm, really.

[minionofmidas]

Does anyone have current NI electoral figures? The ones on the commission's website are february 2007.

Same thing with Scotland, except it's July 2007.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks!

[minionofmidas]

Cardiff North 79,094
Gains Llanrumney, Pentwyn, Cyncoed; loses Gabalfa, Llandaf North
Cardiff South East 73,239
Compared to current S & Penarth, loses Llanrumney, Grangetown, Penarth; gains Adamsdown, Plasnewydd, Penylan, Cathays
Cardiff West 74,114
Gains Grangetown, Gabalfa, Llandaf North; loses Creigiau/St Fagans, Radyr & Morganstown, Pentyrch.

Llanrumney should be in SE, Penylan certainly shouldn't be. About half of Rumney is in Llanrumney ward, while Roath Park is split between Cyncoed and Penylan.

A straight swap would get Cardiff North, already my largest Welsh seat by a fair margin, outside the allowable range, as Penylan has about 1500 more electors than Llanrumney.

[minionofmidas]

Having taken looks at ...not the demographic maps... (for ensuring two safe Labour seats and a nonwinnable one is not my objective) but simply at googlemaps... Al's proposals make a hell of a lot of sense. (the Welsh commission's maps have none of the kind of detail about built-up territory of the English ones. The constituencies I drew looked nice enough in outline to not bother before. By comparison, there are other parts of South Wales that I looked at on googlemaps til my eyes bled.) Even if it means the only split wards in Wales. So I now propose moving all of Llanrumney and the Old St Mellons area to South East and at least the northwestern, Roath Park, part of Penylan ward to North. Probably the Northeastern part too (around Llanedeyrn Road etc. Really not sure that area can be called part of Roath Park, but it does have a much more suburban outlay than Penylan south of the A48.) That should leave the populations of the two seats much better balanced, too.

Since it's not at all more southerly than Cardiff W... I guess it should be Cardiff E now. Or alternatively SE and SW.

[minionofmidas]

The average electorate in Northern Ireland is 77,384. Which is why the legislation allows seats to be outside range. I'll try to use that as sparingly as possible. It should be possible to keep all seats under 80k. (Since that link has electorates by month... Northern Ireland has gained almost 25k voters since december. Not sure why. This is based on the december figures.)

There are three oversized seats that are in line with the new quota: North Antrim 72,834, Upper Bann 74,727, and Newry & Armagh 74,364. Together they almost split Northern Ireland in half.
The five western seats have a total of 320,495 electors, slightly too many for four seats, and I think part of the area to the northeast of Coleraine might be shifted to North Antrim. Foyle would expand, Fermanagh and parts of Tyrone would expand, and the remainder split into two seats (so Martin McGuiness' seat is eliminated!)
The 10 eastern seats have 618,337 electors, a good figure for eight seats. That would sort of predetermine what happens to Belfast: the non city parts of N and W, and probably part of those of S, would be needed to fill E Antrim, S Antrim, and Lagan Valley to quota (with changes to the S Antrim / Lagan constituency boundary also likely.) W and N would then be merged, with some southwesterly wards going into South. The Unionists aren't going to like it, but hey. Not really looked at County Down yet.

[minionofmidas]

Where I am so far:

Foyle 76,337
Regains the Claudy and Banagher wards (the rural part of Derry's local authority) from East; gains the Slievekirk, Dunnamanagh, and Artigairvan wards from West Tyrone
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 78,206
Gains the remaining portion of Dungannon district.
Mid & West Tyrone (or whatever) 79,503
West Tyrone constituency excluding Slievekirk, Dunnamanagh and Artigairvan; Cookstown district
Coleraine, Limavady & Magherafelt 75,403
East excluding Claudy, Banagher, and Dundooan, Dunluce and all of The Skerries to the northeast; Magherafelt district from Mid Ulster
North Antrim 79,226
Gains The Skerries, Dundooan and Dunluce, loses Grange and Kells wards to the south
Upper Bann 74,727
unchanged
Newry & Armagh 74,364
unchanged
South Down 78,222
Regains Ballymaglave, Ballynahinch and Kilmore, gains Killyleagh. Still doesn't include all of Down district, though.
North Down 74,678
Gains Loughries and the Ards peninsula.

Districts closest to Belfast must be considered preliminary, esp. North Down which might well gain Newtonards and lose Hollywood.

[minionofmidas]

Now that we have no elections until the Mid Terms in November, I can now concentrate on the UK rejigged boundaries. All I need is now similar (in percentage terms) the new seats are to the 2010 boundaries and I can whip up a set of notionals whenever you fancy them?

Once more. Out of calculating that percentage and then some low-quality notionals out of them, the first step is three quarters of the work, and anyone doing it would be silly to not just calculate the notional on the same go.

Now... something that I would be thankful for... calculate notional GE results for all the wards that had local elections on the GE date. (That requires summing local results by constituency, and comparing to the GE result, and not all that much more, actually. It also requires a good data source for the local election results, of course.)