Greece 2012

[minionofmidas]

And what's it with the Commies and the islands (the Ionian islands and Lesbos and Samos, to be precise)?

[minionofmidas]

Basically "try to renegotiate with the EU because this is clearly not acceptable; but we don't really want to burn all bridges either so exiting the Eurozone is very much only a last resort even though it needs to be at least sort of on the table", which isn't all that different from Syriza, right? While the KKE stance is of course "we told you so. Now let's giddout".

Does anyone happen to have results be nomos for 1993 or earlier years?

[minionofmidas]

Thanks, it's something.

[minionofmidas]

Color.me.effing.shocked.

I had just assumed... I mean, this is Greece... they've been led by Karamanlites and Papandreoi (or whatever the accurate plural forms are ) as long as I can remember... and there are no other Venizeloi on wikipedia besides Evangelos, Eleutherios, and Eleutherios' son.

But:

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_evangelos_venizelos_related_to_eleutherios_venizelos

[minionofmidas]

English Spiegel article on the major parties

[minionofmidas]

And what's it with the Commies and the islands (the Ionian islands and Lesbos and Samos, to be precise)?

Not to mention, Ikaria.

I just had a look over municipal election results in Samos nomos in 2009 (the old municipalities) and then checked where they actually are.

The KKE won all three municipalities on Ikaria, since merged. The combined tally on the island was
KKE 37.1%
PASOK 25.5%
ND 17.7%
Syriza 10.2%
LAOS 3.4%
Greens (just under) 3.0%
other 3.0%

That's a far-left majority, if you will. The relatively sizable other vote is also topped by Antarsia, KKE (ML) and suchlike.

[minionofmidas]

Yessir. Which means the Greek vote and then Merkel declares the result.

[minionofmidas]

Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

• As soon as the new Parliament takes office

How long after the elections themselves is that?

[minionofmidas]

Of course, it'd be hilariously difficult to shape a majority against the bonus seats.

[minionofmidas]

I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.

And I had you down for PASOK-no-matter-what.

[minionofmidas]

My hope is that DISY fails to enter parliament and Axis of Evil fails to get majority.

Axis of Evil? ND-PASOK-ANEL-Far Right(-DISY)?

[minionofmidas]

Oh, cool. Live results.

PASOK leading in Crete (lol), Syriza all over the metro and in Patras, ND in the Rhodopes and one more random place, KKE on Samos.

[minionofmidas]

What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?

2004, actually. Freak result in Rhethymnon (usually their weakest), above average swing to ND that year, back to PASOK next time.

[minionofmidas]

I haven't checked where results be from, but Laos, DISY and Greens all narrowishly below 3% atm. That ought to make finding a "majority" for Samaras a lot easier if it holds.

[minionofmidas]

What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?

2004, actually. Freak result in Rhethymnon (usually their weakest), above average swing to ND that year, back to PASOK next time.

Well, might happen again today. SYRIZA ahead in Chanion with 18% reporting.

Oh, and in 1977 EK was the strongest party in Crete, not PASOK (nor ND).

[minionofmidas]

KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.

And, as usual, the second part of the statement will be technically correct (if a little... well not irrelevant exactly...) And the first not. At all.

[minionofmidas]

You know, things might end up closeish for first place.

Though probably not.

[minionofmidas]

KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.

And, as usual, the second part of the statement will be technically correct (if a little... well not irrelevant exactly...) And the first not. At all.

ΚΚΕ has its own newspaper, radio and TV station.

Which are, presumably, only listened to and read by the people already hoodwinked by them.

(Does help explain why they're so stable... though it's not as if western Commies didn't/don't have their own newspapers as well.)

I had been wondering regarding the many Greek pollsters quoted on wiki whether the trad. parties don't have their own pollsters as well?

[minionofmidas]

That's an... odd list. Attika and Negroponte (whatever the English transcription of Euböa is) have been good to LAOS as well, Morea the Peloponnese not really. And while the Peloponnese includes PASOK strongholds, ND strongholds, and more swingy areas, the list combines the latter with part of the middle ones. And other LAOS strongholds are missing.

[minionofmidas]

That depends on Greens, DISY and LAOS staying out. As to solid... who knows. Have you seen the numbers of defections during the last parliament? Nothing is solid, in a way. Then again, can you expect similar things again, even assuming there will be "events"? Who knows? Certainly not we.

[minionofmidas]

Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?

If no one can form a government quickly, there are new elections. Greece has the rules on that set down fairly tightly. There's a discussion of it; in the "super predictions" thread IIRC.

[minionofmidas]

It's not really getting closer anymore either.

[minionofmidas]

It's not really getting closer anymore either.

Nothing coming in from Athens. Whats out will be Syriza heavy. Not enough for the lead but a brief look at whats out points to about a 2% swing.

Yeah, may just have been a couple of non-Syriza-heavy updates, Crete is above average reporting fwiw.

[minionofmidas]

Kyklades have just flipped.

[minionofmidas]

Dimiourga Xana 1.91
Drasi 1.61
Antarsya 1.16
Koinoniki Symfonia 0.91
etc pp ct