who is second most likely to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2012?

[minionofmidas]

Biden isn't even third most likely, IMO.

Al Gore?

No, but not Biden.  Maybe Cuomo, though he's still got time.

I'm not saying it's likely at all.  Hillary is #2 by far, everyone else is in assassination-land.

And how and where and why is assassination-land, fantastically unlikely as it is, even remotely as fantastically unlikely as hypothetical bizarre other scenario?

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, you see, such an epic collapse would not only be no more likely than an assassination (or natural death, incapacitation due to contraction of leprosy, etc pp) on its own, it would also be rather unlikely to actually lead to Obama bowing out, instead it would simply lead to him losing the general election.