Palestinian exit polls as accurate as American ones!

[minionofmidas]

Narrow? That's a ten-point lead.

[minionofmidas]

Narrow? That's a ten-point lead.

I think you flipped a 6 or a 9 - it was 46% to 39.5%, which is a 6.5% lead.

The BBC thingy originally just said "over 40" to "over 30". ...

[minionofmidas]

I always get a chuckle out of an Israeli politician who says that the Palestianians will never get a state by terrorism.  If it weren't for the Zionist terrorists who rejected the one-state solution that Britain originally proposed, there wouldn't be a Jewish-majority State of Israel today. Given the obvious example that terrorism can work, why shouldn't the Palestinians think so, aside from the obvious difference that Britain didn't really care very much one way or another who took charge of the territory while Israel obviously considers it an issue of vital importance.

Plus they elected former terrorists leaders as PMs later. Plus they actually supported Hamas in the 70s as a counterbalance to the PLO. I obviously won't support any terrorist actions against civilians, but in many ways Israel is just reaping what they sowed.

80s. Hamas didn't even exist in the 70s. And only very fleetingly.

[minionofmidas]

Here's the election result.

Turnout 74.6%
Turnout, West Bank 73.1%
Turnout, Gaza 76.0%
Constituency with highest turnout Rafah, 82.7%

List vote (66 seats distributed by Saint-Lague, with 2% threshold)
Change & Reform (=Hamas) 43.0% (of voters, not of valid votes) 30
Fatah Movement 39.9% 27
Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa 4.1% 3
The Alternative 2.8% 2
Independent Palestine (=Barghouti) 2.6% 2
The Third Way 2.3% 2
others or invalid 5.3%

Constituencies (66 seats distributed to 16 predefined constituencies. 1 to 9 seats per constituency. Every voter has as many votes as there are seats. Top vote getters elected. 6 seats reserved to Christian minority, see below.)

Jericho 1  - 1 Fatah
Hebron 9 - 9 Change & Reform
Jerusalem 6 - 4 Change & Reform, 2 Fatah. Fatah won Christian seats.
Bethlehem 4 - 2 Change & Reform, 2 Fatah. Fatah won Christian seats.
Jenin 4 - 2 Change & Reform, 2 Fatah
Khan Younis 5 - 4 Change & Reform, 1 Fatah
Deir al-Baleh 3 - 2 Change & Reform, 1 Fatah
Ramallah & al-Bireh 5 - 4 Change & Reform, 1 Fatah. Fatah won Christian seat.
Rafah 3 - 3 Fatah
Salfit 1 - 1 Change & Reform
North Gaza 5 - 5 Change & Reform
Tubas 1 - 1 Change & Reform
Tulkarem 3 - 2 Change & Reform, 1 independent
Gaza 8 - 5 Change & Reform, 3 independents. 1 Independent won Christian seat.
Qalqilya 2 - 2 Fatah
Nablus 6 - 5 Change & Reform, 1 Fatah.
Total 46 Change & Reform, 16 Fatah, 4 independent.
Notice that Muslims in constituencies with reserved Christian seats still had as many votes as there were total seats. I've only seen winning candidates' vote totals, but it would appear that in the West Bank seats, Hamas simply put up only as many candidates as there were unreserved seats, and told its supporters not to cast all their votes. The independents in Gaza, including the Christian, appear to have been elected with Hamas support.

[minionofmidas]

You mean Hamas didn't win the Christian seats? I. Am. Shocked.

Given how they were awarded, they could have won them if they had so chosen - and in Gaza, they sort-of-did. Elsewhere they didn't try to.

[minionofmidas]

Constituencies (66 seats distributed to 16 predefined constituencies. 1 to 9 seats per constituency. Every voter has as many votes as there are seats. Top vote getters elected. 6 seats reserved to Christian minority, see below.)

Jericho 1  - 1 Fatah
Hebron 9 - 9 Change & Reform
Jerusalem 6 - 4 Change & Reform, 2 Fatah. Fatah won Christian seats.
Bethlehem 4 - 2 Change & Reform, 2 Fatah. Fatah won Christian seats.
Jenin 4 - 2 Change & Reform, 2 Fatah
Khan Younis 5 - 4 Change & Reform, 1 Fatah
Deir al-Baleh 3 - 2 Change & Reform, 1 Fatah
Ramallah & al-Bireh 5 - 4 Change & Reform, 1 Fatah. Fatah won Christian seat.
Rafah 3 - 3 Fatah
Salfit 1 - 1 Change & Reform
North Gaza 5 - 5 Change & Reform
Tubas 1 - 1 Change & Reform
Tulkarem 3 - 2 Change & Reform, 1 independent
Gaza 8 - 5 Change & Reform, 3 independents. 1 Independent won Christian seat.
Qalqilya 2 - 2 Fatah
Nablus 6 - 5 Change & Reform, 1 Fatah.
Total 46 Change & Reform, 16 Fatah, 4 independent.

Map

[minionofmidas]

Are there not seats reserved for the Samaritans and Netorei Karta (anti-Zionist Orthox Jewish movement)? If so, how are these represented?

I thought the Samaritans were in Israel?

[minionofmidas]

This just in ... results above were based on 95.something% of ballots. After counting 100.0% of the ballots, Fatah picks up two additional seats from Hamas - one in the proportional vote, one in Khan Younis constituency.


Whatever happened to the talk of the West Bank being Fatah's area, the Gaza Strip being Hamastan? That's not really borne out by these results.