Lowest support for (SPD+CDU+CSU) ever!

[minionofmidas]

According to Forsa, if an election were held today, we get the following result:
CDU/CSU 30%
SPD 29%
FDP 14%
Left.PDS 12%
Greens 10%
other 5%.

[minionofmidas]

When the grand coaltion ends the term, CDU/CSU and SPD will have 20% each, with the FDP getting 25%, the Greens and Left Party 15% each and others 5%

If Merkel lasts an entire term.

[minionofmidas]

14% my God. Is there any reason for that Lewis? The only one I can think of is that they are getting CDU/CSU members who are disaffected with the grand coalition going to the only other right-wing party in the opposition

That's the main reason o/c.

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Doubt that.

One factor though that you gotta remember (about all the minor parties) is, this is among people who know what they'd vote today. There's bound to be lots of disaffected CDU and SPD supporters who're saying they probably wouldn't vote at all, but who would be more energized if there actually was an election coming up.
In other words, were there an election, turnout would be higher than it is for this poll, and CDU and SPD would do better as a result. (Of course, that's the same factor that led to exaggerated CDU poll leads throughout most of the last government's tenure.) In short, this is a poll, not a prediction.

[minionofmidas]

If Merkel lasts an entire term.

How likely is that now? Not very?

Still more than likely o/c. But not set in stone.

[minionofmidas]

How well is the NPD polling? I imagine they are trying to capitalize on immigration fears and so forth.

I have no idea. 5% "other" is fairly run-of-the-mill, perhaps a tad above average.

[minionofmidas]

No. German pollsters aren't good at this stuff... not enough firms in the field, I reckon.

Here's all of Forsa's recent polls though, and the sample size.

[minionofmidas]

Last time the Union polled lower was in march 2000, btw.
At that time, it was
SPD 43%
CDU/CSU 29%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
PDS 7%
other 6%

Also, while 12% for the Left has been reported before - soon after the 2005 election - a higher figure never has been.

[minionofmidas]

Come on FDP!

inasmuch as I understand them, that's my favorite as well.

Lewis, what's your point?  after sixty years do you suppose von Hayek's ghost is being awakened?

What I do know is that every stock I own except Deutsche Telekom is worth more than I paid for it.  Any business-friendly change in Germany is just fine by me.

Not von Hayek's ghost, no.
1848-1933's political ghost - ie, a highly fractured party system - *might* be finally reasserting itself, though.

[minionofmidas]

New poll: CDU/CSU 30%, SPD 30%, FDP 13%, Left 11%, Greens 10%

By some outfit called Emid.

Emnid.