2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

So this is where I am (sort of) on Unterliederbach...



Just to make things clear; which bits go where [qm]

The grey stuff is 621 01-04. Everything else is everything else.

[minionofmidas]

A little confused by 390; what are the western and eastern borders [qm]

Meh. It's what happens when they feel they need to split a Stadtbezirk into two postal precincts, and there isn't a ready split. And the one they settle on is still noticeably suboptimal. And the Stadtbezirk in question contains lots of industrial and agricultural and recreational land as well as an overgrown ex-village.
Still enables us to provide exact results for slightly smaller units, but we don't gain much as a result... in this case, lumping some territory at the north (geographic north. Feels like northeast on the ground, of course, as you think of Wilhelmshöher, the main artery, as a east-west road...) and some in the east, and that weird little block of residential country away from the main part of Seckbach near the Unfallklinik. It hardly matters how you draw the boundary exactly once that idea is understood.

No but seriously, towards the east Wilhelmshöher continues to the Bergen boundary, so your confusion confuses me*. Towards the west just draw a continuation of Arolser. That's not quite there, but nobody cares, I think.

*Ah, I see. Hits Vilbeler just barely on Seckbach land. Just from visual memory, I think the precinct boundary continues southward on Vilbeler. Not that it matters. You'll meet similar problems in Bergen-Enkheim... the official precinct map doesn't actually show that northeastern rural country at all! Though you can guess what precinct farms out there must be voting in. Anyways, you'll need to sort of extend Riedstraße eastward. That's what it looks like on the precinct map, too. Again, not that anyone lives there.

[minionofmidas]

(slaps head)

I just understood the source of the confusion - it's either with the confusing way Hofhaus and Auerfeld are marked on the online map, or with the confusing way they're marked on the printed precinct map I used, or just my stupidity. I'd need to check that printed map again to tell which, although I *think* it's the first of these.

This will perfectly do, of course, but the border's a little messed-up in the center.

[minionofmidas]

This will perfectly do, of course, but the border's a little messed-up in the center.

Which way should I nudge it?

That eastern continuation of Auerfeld, see that? That's part of Hofhaus, not of Auerfeld (or possibly I just wrote the description under that mistaken assumption). And that's all I was referring to when I wrote of "Hofhaus", ie west of that Auerfeld should be the line.
In other words, the darker areas northwestern hump needs to be much flatter.

[minionofmidas]

RIP Mr Hazell. No errors of any kind that I can spot without checking, though I think you meant "sets", not "seats". The very light shades of green and blue are hard to tell apart, though.

[minionofmidas]

Greens just selected their list for the Euro's this weekend.

Ex-MP Werner Schulz surprisingly secures the No. 8 spot. Good man that, Schulz.

 

In the 1998 campaign, Greens were hurt by a bold Parteitag call for a massive increase in petrol taxes that was summarized by the media as "5 Marks per litre of petrol". When it looked as if Schulz had narrowly lost his seat (second place on the Saxony state list) as a result - he pulled through in the end - Schulz joked "now I call for 5 litres of wine per Mark!"

[minionofmidas]

Some of the patterns there are... to use a word used earlier... stark...

Of course, 2008's are only slightly less so...

[minionofmidas]

What's behind the really stark division in Unterliederbach though [qm].

Estateland (though the older, northern part of it is nice-ish) vs the posh part of Höchst, basically. Although I don't know the western side of Unterliederbach nearly well enough to comment really.

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Nope. Got some pretty old money overlooking the Ostpark there. The area, or rather much of it (and a couple of streets east of it, too. This is country I know quite well, having grown up on the road that divides 282 and 252... though near the western end of that line) is not all that unlike the Holzhausenviertel or the posh bits of the Dornbusch. Except much smaller in area. Should definitely be viewed as a survival, though, rather than a yuppie colony - all over the southern halves of 251 (except the zoo itself, of course) and 252 must have been posh country before the war destroyed much of it.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks, beautiful!

Now that they're up I feel free to point out the error in the Dornbusch E division that I only noticed when the turnout thing came up. It's my fault, anyhow.

[minionofmidas]

Just read that Germany is switching from Hare-Niemeyer to Sainte-Lague, for both Euros and Federals.

[minionofmidas]

Just read that Germany is switching from Hare-Niemeyer to Sainte-Lague, for both Euros and Federals.

Could that have a large effect on seat allocations in the next elections? Or just a matter of one or two seats more or less for a party?

The next elections? You mean the Euros? A seat, max. Basically.
The Federal elections? Trickier question. Given that we
first, calculate party's national seat total
then, distribute these seats to the states
then, let parties keep any direct seats beyond the resulting figure, there might be all sorts of weird knock-on effects. I might do the math for the last federal elections.

[minionofmidas]

Anyways, the current procedure has actually been found unconstitutional, but they have until 2011 to fix things. (On a side note, the verdict includes language that leaves no doubt the judges didn't know what they were doing, exactly. Reminds me of Atlasia...)

[minionofmidas]

Lmao. It doesn't change anything at all.

[minionofmidas]

Whoa.

Wake me if that pattern holds.

[minionofmidas]

Remember that a Grand Coalition lost its parliamentary majority in the Netherlands in the 90s.

[minionofmidas]

Well well well... Springer gets ever worse at picking its fights.

[minionofmidas]

Interesting: Western Berlin voted Yes with about 65%, Eastern Berlin No with about 70%+

lol

One western borough (Steglitz - Zehlendorf, unsurprisingly) actually got to over 25% yes vote as a percentage of voters. In the core Eastern boroughs of Lichtenberg and Marzahn-Hellersdorf, the yes vote stands at 5%.

[minionofmidas]

Darmstadt-Dieburg:

Schellhaas (SPD): 54.4%
Buschmann (CDU): 45.6%

obviously nobody besides me cares , but that's the final result with 100% reporting.

I found the Bad Homburg mayoral election funnier.

Michael Korwisi (ran as indy, but is a Green Party member. Supported by Greens and some pretty sizable Indy slate) 39.3%
Ursula Jungherr (CDU, incumbent. Also supported by FDP) 39.0%
some SPD bloke, I forget the name 21.7%

Six years ago, Jungherr won in Round 1, from a field of five candidates.

Local anger over a number of contentious development issues boiled over there... still, Jungherr not even topping the poll seems to have been quite a shock.

[minionofmidas]

Interesting: Western Berlin voted Yes with about 65%, Eastern Berlin No with about 70%+

lol

One western borough (Steglitz - Zehlendorf, unsurprisingly) actually got to over 25% yes vote as a percentage of voters. In the core Eastern boroughs of Lichtenberg and Marzahn-Hellersdorf, the yes vote stands at 5%.

Isn't Steglitz-Zehlendorf the most affluent district of Berlin, full of old rich white people ?

Yeah.

Although it also has the FU. And a surprisingly large Green vote.

[minionofmidas]

Darmstadt-Dieburg:

Schellhaas (SPD): 54.4%
Buschmann (CDU): 45.6%

obviously nobody besides me cares , but that's the final result with 100% reporting.

I found the Bad Homburg mayoral election funnier.

Michael Korwisi (ran as indy, but is a Green Party member. Supported by Greens and some pretty sizable Indy slate) 39.3%
Ursula Jungherr (CDU, incumbent. Also supported by FDP) 39.0%
some SPD bloke, I forget the name 21.7%

Six years ago, Jungherr won in Round 1, from a field of five candidates.

Local anger over a number of contentious development issues boiled over there... still, Jungherr not even topping the poll seems to have been quite a shock.

Korwisi wins, 59.5-40.5!

CDU loses Bad Homburg mayoralty after 61 years.

[minionofmidas]

Another Grand Coalition is exactly what the Left and the Greens need.

[minionofmidas]

There are no parliamentary parties in the Bundesversammlung, so I don't quite see the rationale behind combining the CDU and CSU tallies.

[minionofmidas]

Lol.

[minionofmidas]

Double LOL.

No, that one would be a *vomit*.

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Hardly. Half the Saxon CDU backbench is ready to cast protest votes for Nazis on procedural matters with a secret ballot. As they have demonstrated time and time again over the last few years (and once almost accidentally brought down a prime minister before they wanted to). The only thing that's unusual about Nitzsche is that he was kicked out.

[minionofmidas]

And, lol Wikipedia:

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So. The Nitzsche guy didn't vote for the Nazi. Who is the other person who voted for the Leftie? One person in the CDU-CSU+FDP+FW coalition didn't vote for Köhler. SPD+Greenies gives 513, so I assume those 10 are the 10 abstaining.

There probably were two or three secret crossvoters either way. Probably more from the left to Köhler - doesn't really make sense to assume all blank/invalid ballots to be left ones.

The absent guy (due to illness) was a Left Party Bundestag member.