2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

unlikely recruits to the list of precincts with Greens in second place...

one precinct in Sossenheim. lolz. With a result of CDU 230, Greens 79, FDP 78, SPD 77, Left 28. Double lolz.

[minionofmidas]

Best. Precinct. Result. Ever. This is just northwest of the Bockenheimer Warte between Leipziger and Sophien. Includes the new-built stuff there but isn't limited to that.

581 votes.
CDU 109 19,1%
SPD 111 19,5%
FDP 122 21,4%
Greens 158 27,7%
Left 59 10,4%
other 11 1,9%
invalid 11

[minionofmidas]

Sanity prevails as the SPD wins in the Riederwald (unlike a certain mayoral election...)

turnout 49.0
SPD 30.7
CDU 25.9
Left 14.5
Greens 13.5
FDP 9.6

Greens win not only North End East but Bornheim as well. Anywhere else for the CDU. FDP comes second in both parts of the West End but, rather surprisingly, 3rd in the Dornbusch (Greens 19.6, FDP 19.1, SPD 18.6) and 4th in Eschersheim (Greens 19.6, SPD 19.2, FDP 17.7). Oh come on Eschersheim, you can do worse than that... Left under 5% only in Kalbach, Nieder-Erlenbach, Harheim and Westend S, by a vote or three in the latter case.

With one precinct still out, Frankfurt 5 remains too close too call. Oh, and with 5 precincts citywide still out, I might go check whether there's still an off chance that the Greens beat the SPD.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not actually ruling it out. Unlikely, of course.

[minionofmidas]

With one precinct still out, Frankfurt 5 remains too close too call.

One for the list vote, three for the constituency vote actually. Which means that one posh precinct is still out. Which makes Wiegmann's continued 39-vote lead more comfortable, o/c.

[minionofmidas]

Looks as if the SPD has won either 8 or 9 constituencies btw: Both Kassel rural, Kassel east, both Schwalm-Eder, Rotenburg, Hersfeld (but shockingly not Eschwege. Well, kudos to election.de for that one), Marburg. And possibly Frankfurt 5.

[minionofmidas]

What do you think about district votes in Darmstadt-Dieburg II?

I'd guess something like.....CDU +10%?

I'd guess the following:

Lautenschläger (CDU): 48% (+8)
Koch (SPD): 34% (-7)

Real result: 42-35. Yeah, I'm surprised as well.

[minionofmidas]

infratest dimap estimates of voter migrations (net).

SPD --> non-voting 203k
SPD --> Greens 121k
CDU --> FDP 88k
SPD --> CDU 35k
SPD --> FDP 29k
non-voting --> FDP 22k
Left --> non-voting 20k
other --> Greens 9k
non-voting --> other 8k
other --> FDP 7k
SPD --> Left 5k
CDU to Greens, Left, others, non-voting; SPD to Left, others, FDP to Left, Greens; Greens to Left, non-voters: negligible quantities (under 5k. Way within MoE.)

Of course these things really need not only a "reached voting age" table but also a "deceased since last election" table. (Less so this time than usually, due to the much smaller numbers involved. Still.)

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt's stopped updating apparently.

Oh come on I want that little drop of read in Southern Hesse's sea of Black (or Blue). Just because! (And yes, I understand that Paris would just take another Social Democrat's seat. And that he is an empty windbag who makes my mom vote List SPD, constituency Green. Still. It's not as if anybody knows his opponent either.)

[minionofmidas]

Doing a by-constituency right* minus left# 2003-9 comparison... just to put things into perspective. ;D

I JUST REMEMBERED: A FEW BORDERS CHANGED.

01 Kassel rural -4.9 (-5.1)'
02 Kassel suburban -9.9 (-4.4)
03 Kassel city W -12.6 (-9.8)
04 Kassel city E -17.8 (-14.3)
05 Waldeck +13.0 (-9.4)
06 Frankenberg +9.1 (-13.1)
07 Schwalm-Eder N -7.3 (-4.4)
08 Schwalm-Eder S -0.5 (-8.4)
09 Eschwege -0.0 (-4.3)
10 Rotenburg +1.7 (-5.2)
11 Hersfeld +2.3 (-5.3)
12 Biedenkopf +1.9 (-11.7)
13 Marburg -8.5 (-17.6)
14 Fulda +36.5 (-14.1)
15 Fulda rural +37.5 (-12.3)
16 Dill Valley +24.5 (-2.8)
17 Wetzlar +9.9 (-7.8)
18 Gießen -8.6 (-16.4)
19 Gießen rural not yet up +7.1 (-12.1)
20 Vogelsberg +10.5 (-12.2)
21 Limburg +35.0 (-6.0)
22 Weilburg +20.9 (-5.0)
23 Hochtaunus E +30.8 (-2.2)
24 Hochtaunus W +33.7 (-0.7)
25 Wetterau SW +19.0 (-5.1)
26 Wetterau E +11.0 (-9.6)
27 Wetterau NW +18.8 (+8.7) New seat. Just for kicks, compared to abolished seat of Wiesbaden C.
28 Rheingau +22.3 (-6.9)
29 Niedertaunus +18.4 (-3.9)
30 Wiesbaden W +6.1 (-12.8)
31 Wiesbaden E +17.0 (0)
32 Main-Taunus N +35.3 (-0.5)
33 Main-Taunus S +20.4 (-4.8)
34 Frankfurt W +11.9 (-7.8)
35 Frankfurt NW -4.3 (-6.2)
36 Frankfurt WC +6.6 (-1.9)
37 Frankfurt S +9.2 (-3.6)
38 Frankfurt EC -14.5 (-3.2)
39 Frankfurt NE +7.6 (-8.4)
40 Hanau suburban +16.8 (-2.5)
41 Hanau +14.7 (-3.5)
42 Kinzig Valley +18.4 (-6.8)
43 Offenbach +1.0 (-13.4)
44 Dreieich +16.2 (-4.2)
45 Offenbach suburbs +22.4 (-7.3)
46 Rodgau +22.9 (-8.4)
47 Rüsselsheim +0.3 (-5.6)
48 Ried +4.7 (-1.0)
49 Darmstadt N -14.0 (-11.1)
50 Darmstadt S -0.3 (-6.8)
51 Darmstadt suburbs +5.5 (-4.8)
52 Dieburg +11.8 (-7.6)
53 Odenwald +6.6 (-3.8)
54 Bergstraße W +19.2 (-4.0)
55 Bergstraße E +17.0 (-6.3)


* CDU and FDP. List vote.
# SPD and Greens for 2003, SPD, Greens and Left for 2009. List vote.
' to explain the format: Left outpolled Right by 4.9. Which was 5.1 more than in 2003, when the Right was ahead by 0.2.

[minionofmidas]

CDU has won Frankfurt 5.

[minionofmidas]

CDU has won Frankfurt 5.

Greenies won list vote

Scant consolation.

[minionofmidas]

Re Frankfurt 5. I think I misremembered where 281 04 is - confused it with 282 04. I might have called this with 3 precincts out otherwise. (Paris won it, for all that - by 9 votes. Not comparable to what was needed.)

Ah yes, putting both lead and absolute voteshare makes sense with these results. Good map!

[minionofmidas]

SPD ahead of Greens by 0.145% in Frankfurt. CDU+FDP under 50% of the vote (but ahead of Greens, SPD, Left) on under 60% turnout.

[minionofmidas]

We have a result. (Oh, and Gießen elected a Social Democrat. How could I forget that?)

[minionofmidas]

Turnout 61.0 (-3.3)
CDU 37.2 (+0.4)
SPD 23.7 (-13.0)
FDP 16.2 (+6.8)
Greens 13.7 (+6.2)
Left 5.4 (+0.3)

[minionofmidas]

*waits for a Frankfurt map from Al*

[minionofmidas]

I prefer to type things down.

Altstadt       t 58.8 C 32.7 S 19.4 G 19.0 F 18.4 L 8.2
Innenstadt  t 48.6 C 30.0 F 20.0 G 18.5 S 18.5 L 9.9
Gutleut/Bhv t 53.8 C 25.1 G 22.1 S 20.1 F 18.8 L 10.8
Gallus          t 44.8 C 26.2 S 24.6 G 18.4 F 13.4 L 13.2
Bockenheim t 62.0 C 25.3 G 24.4 S 20.2 F 17.4 L 10.3
West End S  t 69.0 C 33.8 F 27.7 G 17.6 S 11.9 L 5.0
West End N  t 63.5 C 33.8 F 24.3 G 18.6 S 15.0 L 6.2
North End W t 68.1 C 28.0 G 27.8 F 19.1 S 16.4 L 7.0
North End E  t 66.4 G 32.5 C 21.6 S 18.8 F 14.5 L 10.5
Bornheim      t 59.8 G 26.4 C 25.8 S 21.9 F 13.1 L 9.7
East End       t 59.5 C 27.4 G 25.1 S 20.4 F 16.3 L 8.2
Sachsenh N   t 64.7 C 29.7 G 23.9 F 21.0 S 17.0 L 6.4
Sachsenh S   t 64.8 C 37.7 F 20.4 G 19.1 S 15.3 L 5.4
Oberrad        t 58.8 C 35.9 S 19.8 G 17.9 F 14.8 L 8.0
Niederrad     t 55.8 C 34.4 S 20.7 G 16.9 F 16.4 L 7.8
Schwanheim t 56.3 C 38.4 S 21.4 F 15.3 G 14.2 L 6.2
Griesheim     t 45.2 C 35.9 S 23.7 F 14.6 G 12.4 L 8.0
Nied              t 53.1 C 37.9 S 23.2 F 14.2 G 12.8 L 7.9
Höchst          t 48.8 C 30.0 S 23.9 G 18.3 F 13.3 L 10.0
Sindlingen    t 50.8 C 41.1 S 22.0 F 11.6 G 11.4 L 7.5
Zeilsheim     t 53.9 C 46.5 S 19.8 F 13.3 G 10.1 L 5.9
Unterliederb t 55.7 C 40.7 S 19.5 F 15.5 G 14.6 L 5.7
Sossenheim t 49.8 C 44.2 S 19.4 F 14.6 G 11.1 L 7.2
Rödelheim    t 58.5 C 31.6 S 19.7 G 19.4 F 14.4 L 11.0
Hausen        t 61.0 C 32.0 S 24.6 G 16.6 F 13.8 L 8.7
Praunheim   t 59.3 C 34.2 S 21.5 G 17.5 F 14.5 L 8.2
Heddernh    t 59.0 C 32.3 S 22.0 G 18.7 F 14.8 L 8.1
Niederursel  t 56.5 C 35.1 S 22.4 G 16.4 F 14.7 L 7.3
Eschersheim t 65.0 C 34.4 G 19.6 S 19.2 F 17.7 L 6.7
Ginnheim      t 61.6 C 31.3 S 21.6 G 18.9 F 15.6 L 9.3
Dornbusch    t 67.0 C 33.8 G 19.6 F 19.1 S 18.6 L 6.8
Eckenheim    t 52.8 C 30.6 S 22.6 G 18.2 F 15.5 L 9.9
Preunges/Be t 60.2 C 33.1 S 20.4 G 18.5 F 17.0 L 7.2
Bon/Ff. B.      t 54.8 C 32.0 S 22.8 G 17.1 F 14.1 L 9.3
Kalbach         t 69.7 C 38.3 F 20.3 S 17.3 G 16.6 L 4.7
Nieder-Eschb t 57.6 C 38.3 S 19.4 F 16.0 G 13.8 L 6.6
Nieder-Erlenb t 73.0 C 42.4 F 18.0 S 17.4 G 14.1 L 4.1
Harheim         t 72.8 C 42.9 F 18.3 S 15.5 G 15.5 L 4.6 SPD and Greens tied for third.
Seckbach       t 61.9 C 36.7 S 21.1 G 17.2 F 16.1 L 6.4
Riederwald    t 49.0 S 30.7 C 25.9 L 14.5 G 13.5 F 9.6
Fechenheim   t 49.0 C 34.1 S 24.9 G 14.5 F 12.8 L 9.2
Bergen-Enkh  t 67.5 C 36.5 S 19.0 F 18.4 G 17.0 L 5.4

[minionofmidas]

Allocation of 110 seats based on list result...

CDU 42 (0), SPD 27 (-15), FDP 19 (+8), Greens 16 (+7), Left 6 (0). Very close between the 43nd CDU and 19th FDP seat.

However, as the CDU won 46 seats, the smallest total that gives them 46 is used. This is 118.

CDU 46 (+4), SPD 29 (-13), FDP 20 (+9), Greens 17 (+8), Left 6 (0).

Had Paris won Frankfurt 5, the CDU would have received only 45 seats and the total size of the chamber would have been 116.

CDU 45 (+3), SPD 29 (-13), FDP 19 (+8), Greens 17 (+8), Left 6 (0). Somehow, I like that result better. I wonder why.
Anyhow, this means that Paris winning would have cost three currently elected MdL's their seat: the woman who beat him, the last SPD list candidate to get in, and the last FDP list candidate to get in.

Lastly, here's seat distribution using the rules of a Welsh or Scottish list constituency (D'Hondt; overhang seats not just kept and not evened out but actually nicked from the other parties. No unnatural threshold.)

CDU 46, SPD 26, FDP 17, Greens 15 , Left 5, FW 1.

[minionofmidas]

In the constituency vote, SPD won Gallus, Gutleut/Bahnhof, North End E, Bornheim, and the Riederwald. Greens didn't win anything.

[minionofmidas]

Working on it now

If it's not too late, could you include a turnout map?

[minionofmidas]

Working on a secondvote map for the 5 biggies, now. Did Greenies and Linke already.

CDU's hardly needed, one would think.

[minionofmidas]

Al - take your time. Unless it's up in the next couple of minutes I won't look at it til tomorrow.

Hash - great map. You've got an error in the Green map around Darmstadt though. CDU around Kassel, too. Damn enclaves.

[minionofmidas]

Looking forward to the next elections... Presidential. Provided that nobody switches parties and no Bundestag overhang seat falls vacant, this is the number of electors by party ("to" figures will be decided by drawing of lots):

CDU & CSU 500
SPD 415-6
FDP 107
Greens 93-5
Left 91-2
FW 10
NPD 3
DVU 1
i 2 (Bundestag members who quit the CDU resp. Left)

Tradition dictates that the SPD will cede one seat to the SSW.

[minionofmidas]

What is the Riederwald and Gallus like?

The Riederwald is entirely estateland, though construction dates vary from 1910 to the early 70s - indeed all the major construction styles of German "social" architecture of the period can be found, from pretty 6- or 8-unit structures from the 1910's (some with wooden porches and balconies!) via ugly Bauhaus-style single-family structures (and some very beautiful Bauhaus-style single-family structures on Engelsplatz. Yes, it's named for Friedrich Engels.)  to some 50s additions and a couple of ugly 70s towerblocks fronting the estate's northern end. It's very working-class but still very predominantly ethnic German. Close traditional ties to Bornheim (which used to be a very working-class area once too. But is mostly not estateland).





The latter image is from Praunheim but will do as an example of what I call  "ugly Bauhaus-style architecture".

The Gallus has estate bits and privately-built bits, but owes its working-class character to railway lines and factories (now mostly gone).

The Gallus is basically not yet built here, but the trainlines are there - it's the triangle between them.
The Gallus, especially it's privately built parts, is now largely an immigrant-dominated area (citizenship rates are over 50% but...) My mom grew up in the Gallus. In the estate part, too.