NJ-03: GQR: Adler leads big in internal poll

[Mr.Phips]

This race will be decided by how much Adler gets walloped by in Ocean county.  If he gets 44% or above there, he probably wins.  If Adler survives this election, most or all of Ocean county will probably be removed from the distirct, making him as safe is Rob Andrews. 

[Mr.Phips]

This race will be decided by how much Adler gets walloped by in Ocean county.  If he gets 44% or above there, he probably wins.  If Adler survives this election, most or all of Ocean county will probably be removed from the distirct, making him as safe is Rob Andrews. 

Why?  A commission is responsible for redistricting in New Jersey, not the state legislature.  What district gets the Ocean County part?  What area does Adler's district take in?

The commission last drew districts to favor incumbents and likely will again.  What will likely happen is that NJ-03 sheds its portion of Ocean to NJ-04 and picks up NJ-04's portion of Burlington and Mercer to replace it. 

[Mr.Phips]

New Jersey gets the shaft come redistricting, and unless there's a retirement up north (Pascrell, maybe?), NJ-03 would probably get the axe. It's going to be an independent commission map, and ganking Adler (or Runyan) is the "fairest" thing to do.

Nothing personal against Adler, it's just that he hasn't been around long enough. Best case scenario for him is an inc vs. inc fight that leans against him. He'd need a D+10 to survive, and you just can't do that there without cannibalizing the Andrews seat, making Rush Holt vulnerable, or turning the LoBiondo seat into a safe R.

It's a real ... tough redraw for Adler.

I had always thought there would be a Lance/Holt battle in 2012.