Democrats' Statehouse Picture Improving?

[Mr.Phips]

Many people have pointed out that even as the Democrats House prospects seem to be getting worse, the picture in the Senate has improved for them (with net losses likely limited to 4-5). It seems like the same thing is happening the Statehouses. Although at one point, Republicans were projected to pick up something like 10 or more net seats, it now looks like their gains could be more limited.

Despite earlier predictions that Republicans would pick up Colorado, Ohio, Massachusetts and Maryland, all four - at least at the moment - seem to be narrowly favoring retention. (In CO, it's a near-certain hold.) Despite Meg Whitman's millions, Jerry Brown seems to have a consistent narrow lead in California, which would be a pickup, and they will probably pick up Minnesota, Connecticut and Hawaii as well.

Given the Florida GOP mess, Alex Sink looks like she has a real shot of picking that seat up. RI is neck-and-neck although most Dems would be fine with Lincoln Chafee winning it as an independent. And while Texas and Georgia lean Republican, Democratic pickups there are possible.

As I see it, Republicans will pick up WY, OK, KS, IA, WI, MI, TN, PA, and, yes, IL. (I think Dems will hold OR and ME.) If I had to guess, I think Dems will pick up CA, HI, MN, CT, and FL which would work out to a net +3 Republican gain when you include a Lincoln Chafee 3rd party win in RI. That would go down to a +2 Republican gain if Barnes can win in GA.

So do people agree that Dems' statehouse picture is improving?

I wouldn't say necessarily as even though Democratic prospects look better in Colorado, they only marginally look so in places like RI and MA and CA as well as GA is still neck and neck. The Dems were always ahead in CT, HI, and MN for this cycle. In matter of fact, I'd venture to say that they look worse in a couple of places like OR and ME where the Democratic candidates are supposed to be gaining traction and they aren't, the same is the case for TX also. GA and FL are complicated at the current time but with the approvals they give national Democrats I think they will eventually swing Republican come late September/October.

Also keep in mind at around this time in 2006, things  were also "looking up" for the incumbent party an we all know how that turned out.

Democrats only gained six governorships in 2006.  Right up until the end it looked like Democrats would pick up MN, NV, AK, and possibly even ID but Republicnas ended up pulling off victories in all four.