House members who have been the poorest fits for their districts

[Mr.Phips]

The one that really comes to mind is Steve Chabot in OH-01 from 1994 to 2008.  That district was at best a swing district and Chabot voted like a Congressman from the most conservative part of Alabama. 

Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01.  This is the kind of district that would probably easily elect a New Democrat, but Shea-Porter is a member of the Progressive Caucus and does little to moderate her views.

Coffman in CO-06.  This is a slightly Dem leaning seat, yet Coffman is a birther.

Jim Nussle in IA-01/IA-02.  This was clearly a Democratic seat(around D+6 by 2004), yet Nussle was another Steve Chabot type and kept winning here until he left to run for governor in 2006.

There were a lot of these mismatches in the 1970's and 1980's when very liberal Democrats like Tom Downey, Jim Jontz, and Marty Russo kept winning heavily Republican districts.  Now with increased polarization, this phenomenon is less common.

[Mr.Phips]

Bob Edgar (was congressman from the philly burbs before they were dem leaning)
John Brademas (very liberal congressman from Michiana area)
Scott Garrett (R leaning seat but these are LoBiondo Rs)
Phillip Crane (represented Cook County panhandle, was a john bircher if I recall)
Morris Udall - before the 81 remap gave him a new seat, he was considered too liberal
Doug Bereuter - fairly moderate R for the district he represented
Edith Green - fairly hawkish and conservative leaning dem considering she represented Portland

Crane's seat was always pretty Republican when he held it.  Back in the 1970's most of Cook county was pretty Republican outside of the Chicago city limits. 

Speaking of that area, I would add Abner Mikva, who represented a district in North Cook county that was around R+10 and his voting record was as liberal as Rostenkowski and Sid Yates. 

Another good addition would be Paul Ryan before the 2002 redistricting.  Democrats should have clubbed him over the head and beat him in 1998 with some of the ideas he had about Social Security. 

[Mr.Phips]

The one that really comes to mind is Steve Chabot in OH-01 from 1994 to 2008.  That district was at best a swing district and Chabot voted like a Congressman from the most conservative part of Alabama. 

Chabot's not really that bad of a fit bearing in mind how polarized the old OH-1 was. He's pretty typical for the Cincinnati area Republicans. Elections in OH-1 were all about demographics and turnout, not convincing moderates.

OH-01 voted twice for Clinton and went for Bush by a good margin in 2000, yet then gave him only about a 2,000 vote margin in 2004.  Sherrod Brown won it by double digits in 2006.  He should have lost in 2006 or probably even 1998.  

Another couple of bad fits were Rick White and Randy Tate in WA-01 and WA-09 in the mid 1990's.  Both of them were very right wing members in Democratic leaning districts.  Tate was promptly booted in 1996, yet White amazingly survived 1996 before he lost to Jay Inslee in 1998.  

One that I was thinking about a lot was Jim Bacchus in FL-11/FL-15(the Space Coast district) from 1990 to 1994.  That was like a 71% Bush district in 1988 and went for Bush by double digits even in 1992.  And its not even like this seat had a Democratic heritage like FL-01 did.  A Republican held it from its creation in 1962 until 1978, when Bill Nelson won it.  Bacchus was a pretty liberal Democrat, voting for the Clinton budget and tax increase in 1993 and supporting his healthcare plan.  No wonder why he retired in 1994.  

[Mr.Phips]

Frank Pallone in 1988 won what was a heavily Republican district where Bush won by a large margin. The guy challenging Lautenberg also won that district.

Yeah, that is a big one.  I dont know if that district in its 1981-1991 form would have even voted for Obama in 2012 or 2008.  It was basically most of Ocean county with a part of Monmouth. 

[Mr.Phips]

Bob Dornan, a far-right firebrand, held a swing district in So Cal in the early 90's before losing to Loretta Sanchez.

It wasnt really a swing district until around 1996.  Even in 1992, it voted for Bush and went for Bush by over 20 points in 1988. 

[Mr.Phips]

Andrew Maguire was a pretty damn bad fit for his northeast Republican upper-class commuter voters he represented in the late 1970s. In with Watergate; out with Reagan.

1974 election brought in a lot of these types.  A lot of them got swept out in either 1978 or 1980, but some of them, like Tom Downey, Marty Russo, Phil Sharp, and Bob Edgar managed to stay around for quite awhile and rise pretty high in the House. 

[Mr.Phips]

here's another one I forgot about - Dick Ottinger. He was a very liberal democrat (ADA score averaged around 94) who represented northern Westchester county. If he represented the district now, he would be a better fit but in the 70s and 80s the district was about R+5 in PVI.

Totally forgot about him.  The district included a lot of the territory now in Nita Lowey's district.