State Legislatures 2015

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think the odds of the Dems taking control of the State Senate in Virginia are very good - maybe a 1 in 3 chance at best. Sabato has a good analysis that leads me to that conclusion. It all depends on turnout of course in a low turnout election that favors the Pubs (particularly in the now Dem held NOVA seat). I suspect the Pub has a slight edge in the 10th SD that gets the most attention, and about a 50-50 chance to pick up at least one of two Dem seats.

I don't think they will pick up one of the 2 dem seats. But I agree with you that they will likely hold the toss up seat. 21-19 for the republicans after the election.

Interesting.  My impression is that Gecker is favored in SD-10 but Parrish is now favored in SD-29, which would lead to R's maintaining 21/19.  In the long run, SD-29 will approach 75%D under its current lines, so hopefully it's just a one-term rental for Parrish.

Well,
For Parrish, I think he's the Monica Wehby of 2015. The seat is too dem friendly to be lost. Maybe I'm wrong but that's the feeling I get for this race.

For Gecker, people believe its a dem friendly. It isn't. It's a pure toss up, slight rep if I would say. But this will be close, but according to me the rep has a slight edge.

In SD-29, Parrish is the better candidate, but the seat has become so Democratic.  Based on the 2012 Presidential results, it has a PVI of D+12.  Is there any Republican outside of Vermont that holds a legislative seat that Democratic? 

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think the odds of the Dems taking control of the State Senate in Virginia are very good - maybe a 1 in 3 chance at best. Sabato has a good analysis that leads me to that conclusion. It all depends on turnout of course in a low turnout election that favors the Pubs (particularly in the now Dem held NOVA seat). I suspect the Pub has a slight edge in the 10th SD that gets the most attention, and about a 50-50 chance to pick up at least one of two Dem seats.

I don't think they will pick up one of the 2 dem seats. But I agree with you that they will likely hold the toss up seat. 21-19 for the republicans after the election.

Interesting.  My impression is that Gecker is favored in SD-10 but Parrish is now favored in SD-29, which would lead to R's maintaining 21/19.  In the long run, SD-29 will approach 75%D under its current lines, so hopefully it's just a one-term rental for Parrish.

Well,
For Parrish, I think he's the Monica Wehby of 2015. The seat is too dem friendly to be lost. Maybe I'm wrong but that's the feeling I get for this race.

For Gecker, people believe its a dem friendly. It isn't. It's a pure toss up, slight rep if I would say. But this will be close, but according to me the rep has a slight edge.

In SD-29, Parrish is the better candidate, but the seat has become so Democratic.  Based on the 2012 Presidential results, it has a PVI of D+12.  Is there any Republican outside of Vermont that holds a legislative seat that Democratic? 

As of a couple years ago, there was a Republican in a >70% Obama 2008 district in Delaware.

If McPike can hold out, that would be great for VA Dems.  The west Richmond seat has been moving left about a PVI point per year over 2012-14, so I'm actually quite optimistic for Gecker and that would be a majority barring funny business with the indy in the Roanoke seat.

By the Delaware seat I assume you mean the one that Tom Horvath picked up in the special election a few weeks after Obama son in 2008.  Even that seat easily went back to Dems in the awful year of 2010. 

In SD-29, McPike just needs to get the usual Dem margins out of the PWC part of the district to offset Parrish's presumed big win in Manassas.  Again, I believe Parrish is the better candidate, but the seat has just moved too far for him to make it.  Of course, this is the same thing I said about Bob Dold last year....