House Membership Change in 2008?

[Mr.Phips]

Time for my first overly optimistic prediction.  Carrying the momentum of a 300+ EV victory for Fred Thompson Republicans gain 13 seats.

The list:
CA-4, CA-11, AZ-5, TX-22, KS-2, FL-22, OH-18, IN-9, GA-12, GA-15, PA-4, PA-8, PA-7, PA-10, NH-1

Dems gain: NM-1, NC-8

Map:

Republicans can't even find candidates in AZ-05, OH-18, and IN-09.  FL-22, PA-07, and PA-08 are all Dem districts. 

[Mr.Phips]

D>30: D+1
R>30: R+1
and so forth.
Overall results for 2008: D+5
Well, this is what I think will happen. Hope it's not too hackish.

Republicans are not picking up two seats each in Florida and Georgia.

[Mr.Phips]

You can probably guess what seats are flipping where.  I think there may be some offsetting gains in New York and Pennsylvania.

Kagen doesn't even have an opponent.  GA-12 leans strongly Democratic, ie a seat that went for John Kerry in the South.

[Mr.Phips]

I thought Republicans already hold the 4th.

They do.

[Mr.Phips]

I would be surprised if I lived outside of the district, but Chris is a pretty popular guy out here. I'm not saying Chris can't lose, but I don't think he will in 2008. The only candidate strong enough for me to say Chris could really lose would be Blumenthal, and he aint running.

And BTW, the only Republican pick ups I see is TX-22, and maybe the two Georgia seats, but that's a tough call.

Barrow in GA-12 is not going anywhere.  That district even went for John Kerry.

[Mr.Phips]

Time for my first overly optimistic prediction.  Carrying the momentum of a 300+ EV victory for Fred Thompson Republicans gain 13 seats.

The list:
CA-4, CA-11, AZ-5, TX-22, KS-2, FL-22, OH-18, IN-9, GA-12, GA-15, PA-4, PA-8, PA-7, PA-10, NH-1

Dems gain: NM-1, NC-8

Map:

Republicans can't even find candidates in AZ-05 and GA-12.  FL-22, PA-07, and PA-08 are all Dem districts. 

AZ is the Hayworth rematch I so desperatley want, GA-12 is another rematch.  FL-22 along with PA-7 are wishful thinking, PA-7 because more of who is not on the ballot.  PA-8 is a possibly Fitzgerald rematch.

Hayworth is not running again and Burns now has a job in education in Georgia.  FL-22 went for John Kerry in 2004 and PA-07 went for John Kerry by a stunning six point margin as he was losing nationwide.  PA-08 is also a Kerry district that Fitzgerald is way too Conservative for.

[Mr.Phips]

Kagen doesn't even have an opponent.  GA-12 leans strongly Democratic, ie a seat that went for John Kerry in the South.

I don't expect all seats to have a set opponent at this point: the election is still a year-and-a-half away.  I would be surprised to say the least if Kagen doesn't draw a legit challenger.

Next: GA-12 leaning strongly Democratic?  The same way that a seat that (virtually) went for George Bush in New England would lean strongly Republican?  Tell that to Nancy Johnson.

The GOP almost picked up GA-12 in 2006, when they were getting trounced everywhere else.  Besides, Republicans almost won it in 2004, and they did win it in 2002.

If that seat is "heavily Democratic," then Democrats are in more trouble than they even realize down south.  GA-12 is trending heavily Republican, and it is only a matter of time before the GOP picks it up.

GA-12 is the Barrow seat.  For John Kerry to win in a district in a state where he was trouced by 20 points means that the district has a serious Democratic lean. 

The difference between GA-12 and CT-05 is that Bush won the election and lost the CT-05.  Kerry lost the election and won GA-12. 

[Mr.Phips]

People...please

Fitzpatrick...Fitzpatrick...

Fitz could win here...he actually overperformed in lower bucks in 2006...he would just have to start performing about average in central and upper bucks, traditionally more republican areas.

That said, Murphy's situated himself quite nicely, and hasn't given the voters a reason to turn him out in favor of Fitz, or anyone else yet.

It would be very tough in a Presidential year.  Challengers almost never oust incumbents in Presidential years when the incumbents party is carrying the district in the Presidential race. 

[Mr.Phips]

The GOP almost picked up GA-12 in 2006, when they were getting trounced everywhere else.  Besides, Republicans almost won it in 2004, and they did win it in 2002.

They only won the district (which was quite different then o/c; less rural, included Athens) in 2002 because the Democratic candidate was truly dreadful.
But the results there in 2002 and 2006 do show, and pretty clearly, that it's nay the strongly Democratic district that a certain poster has, repeatedly, claimed that it is...

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Is it? Overall Georgia is certainly swinging to the Republicans, but that's mainly due to mushrooming of Atlanta suburbia; none of which is in GA-12. The only reason for Barrow's scare last year was the very low black turnout in East Georgia that year.
IMO he's far from safe (and his district is, at best, a marginal), but he's not screwed in the way that Marshall (who's district does include some Atlanta commuterland) is.
Of course... if it turns out that Barrow's appeal to black voters is as poor in 2008 as it apparently was in 2006, then, yeah, he's done as well.

Blacks will certainly turout at higher rates than they did in 2006 because of the Presidential race.  It should be known that GA-12 is almost half black(45%).

[Mr.Phips]

I think I accidentally deleted this:

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Barrow was running in a new district as was Marshall as the popular Republican governor was winning in a landslide. 

The Republican would have to win Georgia by more than 20 points to carry GA-12.

[Mr.Phips]

I wouldn't necessarily write Jim Marshall in GA-08 off when you consider that less than 60% of the population in his old 3rd District was retained in his new 8th District, so he wasn't exactly a "full" incumbent; however, in 2008, he will be

That said, it is, of course, a district which heavily favors Republican presidential candidates. It has a Cook PVI of R +8; and, therefore, pretty much mirrors the state as a whole nowadays

It is possible that a significant number of 'new' constituents, who voted Republican in 2006, might like their new Democratic congressman enough to re-elect him in 2008

Dave

Marshall's district is historically Democratic, which certainly helps him.  The district also has a pretty significant black population(35%) and they are likely to vote in greater numbers than they did 2006.  He certainly faces a tough fight, but he knows what he needs to do to win.  He won in 2002 when almost every other Democrat in Georgia lost. 

[Mr.Phips]

I wouldn't necessarily write Jim Marshall in GA-08 off when you consider that less than 60% of the population in his old 3rd District was retained in his new 8th District, so he wasn't exactly a "full" incumbent; however, in 2008, he will be

That said, it is, of course, a district which heavily favors Republican presidential candidates. It has a Cook PVI of R +8; and, therefore, pretty much mirrors the state as a whole nowadays

It is possible that a significant number of 'new' constituents, who voted Republican in 2006, might like their new Democratic congressman enough to re-elect him in 2008

Dave

Marshall's district is historically Democratic, which certainly helps him.  The district also has a pretty significant black population(35%) and they are likely to vote in greater numbers than they did 2006.  He certainly faces a tough fight, but he knows what he needs to do to win.  He won in 2002 when almost every other Democrat in Georgia lost. 

I gather the current 8th District is similar to that which was represented from 1995 to 2003 by Saxby Chambliss, so I assume prior to 1994, it was historically Democratic

In 2000, Chambliss defeated Marshall 59% to 41% in the then 8th District

Dave

Yeah, it was basically the same district.  Clinton carried it in both 1992 and 1996 and Chambliss was barely reelected there in 1996.

[Mr.Phips]

After all of the "Kerry won GA-12 in 2004" arguments I'd just like to remind everyone that Georgia was redistricted between 2004 and 2006 which makes this argument pretty weak.

Redistricting did little to GA-12 but get rid of Clarke county and add in some rural black areas that were in Marshall's district.  Marshall's district saw its black percentage drop by about five points as it lost the eastern black counties to GA-12 and picked up some Republican territory closer to Atlanta.